University of Minnesota Extension
www.extension.umn.edu
612-624-1222
Menu Menu

Extension > Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk > November 2015

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

November at a glance

Through the first 25 days of November temperatures have been averaging well above normal.  It is likely that this month will conclude in a manner that will rank it among the top three warmest Novembers in Minnesota history, likely falling short of the warmest ever which occurred in 2001.  Over 40 communities reported at least one day this month with an afternoon temperature of 70°F or higher.  In all 33 new daily maximum temperature records were set within the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network in Minnesota, and 145 daily warm minimum temperature records were set, a remarkably large number.  No low temperature records were set anywhere in the state this month.  The coldest measured temperature so far this month in the state is -1°F at Cotton (St Louis County) and Isabella (Lake County) on November 22nd.

With additional precipitation in the forecast for some areas on Thanksgiving and again for the end of the month, this Sunday into Monday, most climate observers in the state will report well above normal total precipitation for the month.  Statewide it is likely this November will rank among the ten wettest in Minnesota history, with the majority of the precipitation coming as rain.  In fact 96 new daily rainfall records were reported this month from the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Network in Minnesota, including 2.61 inches at Winnebago and 2.45 inches at Faribault on November 12th which were all-time daily record amounts at those stations for the month of November.  Windom (Cottonwood County) has recorded its wettest November in history (4.34"), while Grand Portage (Cook County) reports its 3rd wettest November (4.67"), and Rosemount (Dakota County) reports its 5th wettest November (4.23"). 

Snowfall for the month has been less than normal in most places, with a few exceptions.  With over 4 inches of new snow reported on the 13th of November new daily records were set at Tower, Brimson, and Gunflint Lake.  With 13.5 inches of snowfall so far this month Isabella (Lake County) is close to their November average of 14 inches and they will probably add to their total before the end of the month.

New Study of Twin Cities Heat Island:

The University of Minnesota Discover web site recently featured a study of the urban heat island associated with the Twin Cities Metro Area.  Results from this study were recently published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology (authors B. Smoliak, P. Snyder, T. Twine, P. Mykleby, and W. Hertel).  Some of the results show that the urban heat island of the Twin Cities is stronger at night than during the day in the summer months, while in the winter it is stronger during the day.  The urban heat island also produced temperatures at times that were 9°F warmer than surrounding areas during July of 2012.  The entire article is available at the American Meteorological Society.

Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, January 28, 2016:


Registration is now open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis.  This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources.  At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayor’s panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation. 

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota. We strongly encourage you to submit a nomination to recognize exemplary work by an individual, organization, institution, or the private sector. The submission process requires only a letter of nomination and two supporting letters. Nominations are due November 25, 2015, to Barbara Liukkonen, liukk001@umn.edu  This conference promises to be an outstanding venue for disseminating results of your work, learning from others, and celebrating the accomplishments of Minnesota's climate adaptation leaders. Please consider nominating a deserving colleague or organization for an award.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


A research paper published by faculty at the University of Bristol, UK shows that there has been no global warming "pause" or "hiatus" over the past several years, and therefore the use of those terms is inaccurate.  This is the second paper published this year to document that independently derived temperature data sets show little or no disruption in the upward trend in global temperatures.

At the NOAA Climate.Gov web site this week there is a discussion about the geographical and seasonal disparities in global temperature changes.  The authors produce some nice maps and graphics which you may find useful.  Generally Arctic regions are warming at twice the pace of most other areas, and an explanation is offered.

Hurricane Sandra in the Eastern Pacific Ocean was growing in strength this week, becoming the strongest hurricane for so late in the year.  Wind speeds were expected to increase to over 110 mph and wave heights to over 30 feet before it makes landfall this weekend over Baja California and the northwest coast of Mexico.  Hurricane Sandra is the 18th named storm of the Eastern Pacific Ocean this year, a more active than normal year from the standpoint of tropical storms.

Hurricane Sandra


An update on the record warm year of 2015 was provided this week by the United Kingdom Met Office.  They provide the data sources and analysis relative to a historical context back to the mid 19th Century.

Early summer heat and drought have contributed to widespread wildfires in South Australia this month.  Many bushfires have been noted and a number have burned out of control for several days.  A number of homes and other buildings have been destroyed by these fires.

MPR Listener Question:


I heard you mention last week the lack of snowfall so far this month in the Twin Cities and that the normal was 9.3 inches.  Which climate station in Minnesota has the highest value for normal November snowfall?

Answer:


The three highest values in the state for normal November snowfall are Duluth and International Falls with 13.7 inches and Isabella with 14.3 inches.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 25th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 21 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation). 

MSP Local Records for November 25th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1914; lowest daily maximum temperature of 6 degrees F in 1977; lowest daily minimum temperature is -18 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 44 F in 1913 and 2011; record precipitation of 0.97 inches 1896; and record snowfall of 5.3 inches in 1952.

Average dew point for November 25th is 21 degrees F, with a maximum of 43 degrees F in 1933 and a minimum of -19 degrees F in 1977.

All-Time State Records for November 25th:


The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Faribault (Rice County) in 1933.  The state record low temperature for this date is -36 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1903.  State record precipitation for this date is 3.00 inches at Le Sueur (Le Sueur County) in 1896; and record snowfall is 16.7 inches also at Island Lake (St Louis County) in 1983.

Past Weather Features:


A significant blizzard was occurring on this date back in 1820 in what is now the Twin Cities area.  The Ft Snelling observer was recording 9 inches of snow with strong winds and diminished visibility.

One of the stormiest Thanksgiving holidays in Minnesota history occurred over November 25-27, 1896.  A slow moving storm system brought rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to many parts of the state, along with high winds, and even thunder and lightning. Precipitation totals ranged from 2-3 inches in many places, and significant snowfall accumulated in many northern counties.  Moorhead reported 17.8 inches of snow.

An Arctic Cold Wave gripped the state over November 24-26, 1903.  Many northern communities reported low temperatures of -20°F or colder.  Sub-zero temperatures were reported as far south as Grand Meadow and Zumbrota and the temperature never rose above 0°F at Tower on the 25th.

November 25, 1960 brought unusually warm weather to Minnesota with many observers reporting record-setting high temperatures.  Northern areas of the state reached into the 50s F, with Warroad reporting a high of 52°F.  Western and southern communities reached the 60s F and even 70°F in a few places.  Temperatures crashed back into the teens and 20s F by the end of the month.

Another Arctic Cold Wave gripped the state over November 25-28, 1977.  The entire state was blanketed by record setting cold temperatures with -20°F reported at Rochester and -25°F at Austin.  In western Minnesota at Rothsay (Wilkin County) the temperature rose no higher than -4°F on the 25th.  Wind Chill values dropped into the -25°F to -35°F range.

The last week of November in 1983 was one of the snowiest ever for many Minnesota communities.  Many observers reported 15-20 inches of snowfall during the week, and some northern communities reported over 30 inches, closing many roads and schools.  It was one of several major doses of snow during the winter of 1983-1984. 

A major winter storm crossed the state over November 24-27, 1993 bringing high winds and heavy snow for the Thanksgiving weekend.  Many places received over a foot snow, and some roads were closed for a time in western Minnesota, where Fergus Falls reported 20 inches.

Outlook:


Mostly a dry, but cool Thanksgiving Day in the north, but a wintry mix of precipitation in the central and southern counties, especially the southeast.  Mostly sunny and drier Friday into Sunday, with slightly cooler than normal temperatures.  Increasing cloudiness later on Sunday with a chance for snow and moderating temperatures into Monday and Tuesday.  Warmer and drier for the rest of next week.

Friday, November 20, 2015

Plenty of rain and abrupt change in temperature

Big Transition Week Weatherwise:


Thursday, November 19 brought the first cooler than normal temperatures to many parts of Minnesota in 20 days, as daily temperatures fell into the 20s and 30s F with windchill values dropping into the single digits and teens. During the prolonged warm finish to October and first 18 days of November many climate observers reported record warm daily maximum temperatures, 24 in total.  Among the more recent daily  maximum temperature records set just this week were: 60°F at Thief River Falls (Pennington County) on November 15th; 61°F at Ottertail (Otter Tail County) on November 16th; 64°F at Ada (Norman County) on November 16th; and 54°F at International Falls on the 18th (tied record from 2012).

Not surprising with extensive and persistent cloud cover, southerly winds, and high dew points many climate stations set new record warm daily minimum temperature records, 108 records tied or broken in the first 17 days of November.  Among the record warm daily minimum temperatures set as recently as this week were: 47°F at St Cloud, 29°F at Caledonia, and 50°F at Redwood Falls on the 16th; 47°F at International Falls, 49°F at MSP (tied record), 48°F at St Cloud, and 48°F at Pipestone and Winnebago on the 17th. 

Overall November of 2015 has been the warmest since 2001 and will likely end up among the warmest in Minnesota history regardless of the temperature conditions for the balance of the month, including the colder than normal days expected to prevail through the coming weekend.

The persistent cloud cover this week has brought plenty of rainfall as well, including record-setting values at some climate stations.  Many observers have reported over 1 inch of total rainfall over November 16-18.  Some areas have reported over 2 inches including Grand Rapids, Duluth, Grand Portage, Two Harbors, Milan, Kimball, St Cloud, Milaca, Mora, Lakefield, and Windom.  Brainerd Airport has reported 3.45 inches this week, a remarkable total for the month of November.  Many new record values of daily precipitation were reported from climate stations this week.  Among these were:

For November 17th: 1.07" at Rosemount, 1.00" at Vesta, 1.21" at MSP Airport, 0.79" at Ely, 0.60" at Pipestone, 0.67" at Minnesota, 1.02" at Brainerd, and 0.87" at Bricelyn
For November 18th: 0.98" at St Cloud, 1.03" at Hawley, 1.18" at Worthington, 1.06" at Windom, 1.20" at Montevideo, 1.10" at Dawson1.26" at Milan, 1.45" at Collegeville, 1.69" at Milaca, 1.57" at Mora, 1.33" at Isle, 1.38" at Brainerd, 1.80" at Pine River Dam, 1.48" at Grand Portage, and 1.10" at Hastings.


Already November of 2015 ranks among the wettest 20 historically on a statewide basis, and for some individual communities it ranks even higher.  Some examples include:
3.04" so far at International Falls (4th all-time)
4.02" so far at Owatonna (3rd all-time)
4.23" so far at Rosemount (5th all-time)
4.34" so far at Windom (1st all-time)
4.41" so far at Grand Portage (4th all-time)
3.99" so far at MSP (7th all-time)

It is likely that significantly more precipitation will add to these totals before the end of the month.  With cooler temperatures this precipitation will come in the form of snow and rain.

Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, January 28, 2016:


Registration is now open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis.  This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources.  At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayor’s panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation. 

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota. We strongly encourage you to submit a nomination to recognize exemplary work by an individual, organization, institution, or the private sector. The submission process requires only a letter of nomination and two supporting letters. Nominations are due November 25, 2015, to Barbara Liukkonen, liukk001@umn.edu  This conference promises to be an outstanding venue for disseminating results of your work, learning from others, and celebrating the accomplishments of Minnesota's climate adaptation leaders. Please consider nominating a deserving colleague or organization for an award.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


The dramatic change in air mass brought by a frontal passage across Minnesota over November 18-19 produced the strongest winds of the month.  Many climate stations reported wind gusts well over 40 mph, including Fairmont with 48 mph, Worthington 51 mph, Pipestone and Hutchinson 47 mph, Marshall 54 mph, Morris 56 mph, Fergus Falls 55 mph, Crookston and Moorhead 53 mph, Hallock 52 mph, Detroit Lakes 49 mph, and Alexandria 51 mph.  Following this strong cold frontal passage temperatures dropped to as low as 9°F at Thief River Falls and just 7°F at Fosston.  The Friday, November 20 low temperature at MSP of 25°F represents the first temperature reading in the 20s F for the Twin Cities this autumn.  This is the latest in the season that the temperature has dipped in the 20's for the Twin Cities Metro Area.  Looking back at the records that begin in 1873, the previous record for a minimum in the 20's was November 19, 1922.  More can be found at the Minnesota State Climatology Office.

There’s good news and bad news about hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), the gases that replaced the ozone-depleting substances that were used in refrigerators and air conditioners....the good news: HFCs are indeed much less damaging to Earth’s protective ozone layer. The bad news is that many HFCs currently in use are strong greenhouse gases, and they have been increasing rapidly in the atmosphere.  You can read more details about this in a study highlighted by NOAA climate.gov.

Typhoon In-Fa in the Western Pacific Ocean, southeast of Guam, was gaining strength this week, although it presented no threat to land. It was expected to reach wind speeds over 130 mph this weekend and produce wave heights over 30 feet.  

Winter Storm Barney unleashed strong winds and heavy rains across parts of the United Kingdom this week. An unusual part of the forecast included a statement of warning from the Environment Agency in the UK for people not to attempt to take selfies in the storm, an act which apparently has gained in popularity in recent times.

MPR Listener Question:


Without snow so far in the Twin Cities this month, my wife and I were wondering when was the last time no measurable snowfall occurred in November and how often does this happen?

Answer:


The last November in the Twin Cities without measurable snowfall was in 2009 when just a trace was observed.  Only three other years fall into this category, 1928, 1939, and 1963.  The current November normal snowfall (1981-2010) for the Twin Cities is 9.3 inches, which we marginally exceeded last year when 9.4 inches fell. 

Twin Cities Almanac for November 20th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 20th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 63 degrees F in 1925; lowest daily maximum temperature of 17 degrees F in 1872, 1937, and 1978; lowest daily minimum temperature is -3 degrees F in 1921; highest daily minimum temperature of 43 F in 1930 and 1990; record precipitation of 2.01 inches 1975; and record snowfall of 8.0 inches in 1975.

Average dew point for November 20th is 24 degrees F, with a maximum of 54 degrees F in 1934 and a minimum of -1 degrees F in 1950.

All-Time State Records for November 20th:


The state record high temperature for this date is 74 degrees F at Faribault (Rice County) in 1897.  The state record low temperature for this date is -31 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1896.  State record precipitation for this date is 3.23 inches at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1975; and record snowfall is 16.0 inches also at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1975.

Past Weather Features:


November 20, 1896 was likely the coldest in history statewide as 40 Minnesota communities reported morning low temperatures that were below 0°F.  In northern Minnesota at both Crookston and Roseau the temperature never rose above 0°F for the entire day.  Much of northern Minnesota was blanketed with snow cover for most of the month and that November was the coldest in state history.

November 20, 1897 was likely the warmest in history statewide as 27 Minnesota communities saw afternoon highs climb into the 60s F.  Across southern Minnesota several observers reported high temperatures in the 70s F.  At Montevideo the temperature climbed from a low of 24°F to an afternoon high of 74°F, a rise of 50 degrees F.

A strong low pressure system brought heavy rainfall to the state over November 20-21, 1930.  Many areas received over 1 inch, while a few climate stations reported over 2 inches.  At Pigeon River in northeastern Minnesota the river rose rapidly as over 3 inches of rain fell there.

One of the worst winter snow storms for this time of year occurred over November 19-20, 1975.  Strong winds and heavy snow plagued much of the central and northern portions of the state.  Many communities reported over 10 inches of snow, and drifts closed roads in many areas.

Outlook:


Cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend, then warming up to a few degrees above normal for Monday through Wednesday of next week.  Chance for rain and snow by late Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving Day).

NOAA-CPC look at early December favors warmer and drier than normal......see below.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gifhttp://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

Friday, November 13, 2015

Warm, Wet November

Warm November in Historical Context:

So far this month temperatures around the state are ranging from 9 to 12°F warmer than normal, on track to break the record for the warmest November in state history, which occurred in 2001.  The three warmest Novembers in state history have all occurred in the last 16 years (2001, 2009, and 1999).  From a trend standpoint 12 of the most recent 16 Novembers have been warmer than normal in Minnesota, so this year is certainly following the trend.

In the Twin Cities climate records 2001, 2009, and 1999 were the three warmest Novembers in history with 94 percent of all days in those months recorded as above normal temperatures.  So far this month through the first 12 days, all daily mean temperatures have been well above normal in the Twin Cities with six days reaching a temperature of 60°F or greater, the most since 2001 (13).  In 2001 after prolonged warmer than normal conditions (13 days with daytime temperatures of 60°F or higher) the weather turned wet with heavy precipitation, much like what happened around Minnesota this week.

Outlook models continue to favor above normal temperatures across Minnesota for the balance of November and into early December, so it is likely this month will end up among the top 3 warmest Novembers in history, perhaps the warmest ever.

Heavy rains this week:

A large and strong storm system brought lightning, thunder, and heavy rains to many parts of the state on November 11th and 12th.  Dew points climbed into the mid 40s F just ahead of the showers and heavy rain.  Many observers reported over 1 inch of rains, some reported over 2 inches, and a handful received 3 to 4 inches.

The heavy rain is somewhat unusual for mid-November and was record-setting for a number of climate stations including:
1.59 inches at Lakefield
2.10 inches at Windom
2.08 inches at Blue Earth
2.45 inches at Faribault
1.76 inches at New Ulm
2.30 inches at Waseca
2.61 inches at Winnebago
1.95 inches at Hastings
2.05 inches at Red Wing
2.04 inches at Zumbrota

For the communities of Waseca, Winnebago, and Faribault those numbers represent the largest single day rains in climate history for the month of November.


The heavy rains flooded some intersections, but much of the rainfall was absorbed by the soil.  Many observers will now report above normal rainfall for the month of November even if it remains dry the rest of the month.

The Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference, January 28, 2016:

Registration is now open for the 3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis.  This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources.  At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayor’s panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation. 

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota. We strongly encourage you to submit a nomination to recognize exemplary work by an individual, organization, institution, or the private sector. The submission process requires only a letter of nomination and two supporting letters. Nominations are due November 25, 2015, to Barbara Liukkonen, liukk001@umn.edu  This conference promises to be an outstanding venue for disseminating results of your work, learning from others, and celebrating the accomplishments of Minnesota's climate adaptation leaders. Please consider nominating a deserving colleague or organization for an award.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

NOAA-NCEI this week highlighted the release of a report titled "Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective."  It is an interesting report that relates some of the extreme weather and climate events of last year to climate change drivers.

The NOAA-National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Kate which formed earlier in the week is the latest on record to form in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean.  Hurricanes are rare for the month of November and Kate is the 11th named storm for the Atlantic Basin this year.  Kate was a post-tropical storm in the North Atlantic by Friday and may bring storminess to parts of Ireland and the UK by early next week.

Following its new storm naming convention the United Kingdom Met Office was issuing warnings on Storm Abigail this week.  It was bring heavy rains, high seas, and strong winds to parts of Scotland and many storm warnings had been issued.  Wind gusts to 84mph were noted by the BBC.

A new study by scientists at the University of California-Riverside reveals that continued climate change will provoke an increase in aerosol species in the atmosphere resulting in more hazy days. Some of this is based on the reduction in the amount of aerosols scrubbed out of the atmosphere by rainfall events, which will become less frequent in many areas due to climate change.

MPR Listener Question:

I have heard a great deal about the Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940 recently because of news coverage associated with the 75th Anniversary.  I know little about this storm.  In your opinion how does it rank among Minnesota's worst winter storms?

Answer:

This is a difficult question because there are so many different storm attributes to compare: atmospheric pressure falls, temperature drops, total precipitation, wind speeds, visibility, geographic extent of the storm, and consequences associated with the storm impacts.  Certainly the Armistice Day Blizzard ranks among the ten worst winter storms to ever hit the state of Minnesota.  Some of the characteristics of this storm included: 12 to 24 inches of snowfall with snow drifts up to 20 feet high; winds from 40-65 mph; wind chill values of -25 to -35°F; zero visibility in many areas of the state; atmospheric pressure drop of 20mb, or 0.60 inches to just 28.66 inches at Duluth, 49 deaths attributed to the storm with prolonged school and road closures, and of course this storm was not in the forecast made by the Weather Service that day.  Other historical storms that rank among the ten worst in history include: January 7, 1873 "violent blizzard" according to the New Ulm Observer, 70 deaths reported; The "Children's Blizzard" of January 12-13, 1888 (documented in David Laskin's Book, over 200 deaths); November 27-28, 1905 blizzard sank the Mataafa just outside Duluth Harbor (documented in Curt Brown's Book "So Terrible a Storm"); November 9-11, 1913 "Great Lakes Hurricane" and blizzard sank three ships on Lake Superior (documented in Michael Schumacher's book); February 21, 1922 "paralyzing blizzard and ice storm" with power lost for many days in southern counties; March 15-16, 1941 "Ides of March Blizzard" not in the forecast of the Weather Service that day, stranded people on a Saturday night, left 32 dead; March 26-27, 1950 one of the worst blizzards and ice storms in northern Minnesota closed schools for days; January 10-12, 1975 "Storm of the Century" blizzard brought hurricane force winds and over 20 inches of snow to many  areas, along with 35 deaths; Halloween Blizzard (Oct 31-Nov 3) 1991 brought record-setting snowfall, wind damage, and closed roads for days; April 9-10, 2013 blizzard and ice storm  across Minnesota with extensive damage in SW counties where power outages lasted for days.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 13th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 43 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 13th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 15 degrees F in 1940: lowest daily minimum temperature is 0 degrees F in 1986; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 F in 1944 and 2001; record precipitation of 1.04 inches 1951; and record snowfall of 7.7 inches in 2010.

Average dew point for November 13th is 26 degrees F, with a maximum of 55 degrees F in 2001 and a minimum of -7 degrees F in 1986.

All-Time State Records for November 13th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1999.  The state record low temperature for this date is -24 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1995.  State record precipitation for this date is 3.80 inches at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1937; and record snowfall is 15.0 inches at Taylors Falls (Chisago County) in 1940.

Past Weather Features:

November 12-16, 1909 brought a major winter storm to Minnesota.  It started out with rain and thunder, then later turned to sleet and snow.  Total snowfall ranged mostly from 6 to 10 inches, but Fosston and Fairmont reported over 20 inches.  Fairmont ended up reporting over 30 inches of snow that month.

The first Arctic air mass of the season had a grip on Minnesota over November 12-14, 1919.  Several inches of snow had already fallen earlier in the month. Under clear skies and calm conditions temperatures plummeted to below 0°F values all around the state, ranging from -22°F at Angus (Polk County) to -2°F at Rochester.

Over November 10-13, 1986 another Arctic air mass invaded Minnesota bringing record-setting low temperatures to many areas.  Sub-zero temperatures were reported from all regions of the state while even daytime highs had difficulty reaching the teens and twenties F.  Hawley in Clay County never saw the thermometer rise higher than 10°F over the four days.

November 13, 1999 was the warmest in state history by far. Sunny skies and strong south winds pushed temperatures into the 60s F in most parts of the state.  Over 30 climate observers reported record-setting daytime temperatures in the 70s F.

Outlook:

Sunny and warmer over the weekend with temperatures rising significantly above normal values.  Increasing cloudiness later on Monday and a chance for showers.  Continued mild much of next week with a chance for showers on Tuesday and Wednesday as well.  Drier and cooler toward the end of next week.

Friday, November 6, 2015

Warm Start to November

Very warm conditions prevailed around the state over the first several days of November. At least 15 climate stations have reported a daytime high temperature this month of 70°F or higher, topped by 78°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) on the 3rd. The warmth reached as far north as Hibbing where it reached 64°F on the 3rd, while some western Minnesota observers (Canby, Appleton, and Madison) reported three consecutive afternoons with highs in the 70s F this first week of November which last happened in 1999 and 1975.

High dew points were also noteworthy as MSP tied the record highest dew point on November 4th with a reading of 55°F and broke the record high dew point on November 5th with a reading of 56°F. The high dew points prevented overnight temperatures from dropping to normal values for this time of year, so consequently some climate stations reported new record warm minimum temperatures on November 4th as well including 51°F at Collegeville, 47°F at Park Rapids and Alexandria, and 45°F at International Falls (tied record from 1956 and 2008). Scattered showers brought rainfall amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches to parts of the state during the first week of November, following a wet last week of October. Soil moisture has been recharged in many areas with USDA Crop Condition reports documenting that over 80 percent of the state shows adequate to surplus topsoil moisture.

Record crops of corn and soybeans have been harvested and been placed into storage. Farmers are waiting for soil temperatures to cool down before applying fall nitrogen.


Presentation on the Armistice Day Blizzard:



For those interested in famous Minnesota historical events I will be presenting the story of the 1940 Armistice Day Blizzard at a public event hosted by the Carver County Library in Chanhassen (7711 Kerber Blvd) next Monday night, November 9th at 6:30pm. This year marks the 75th Anniversary of this famous storm that paralyzed many areas of the state and killed a number of Minnesota hunters. I hope to see you there.

23rd Annual Kuehnast Lecture on November 12th:


The 23rd Annual Kuehnast Endowment Lecture will take place at 3pm on November 12, 2015 in Rm S335 Borlaug Hall on the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus. This is a no-cost public lecture dedicated to atmospheric and climate sciences. Our event this year will feature a presentation by Dr. Thomas Peterson, recently retired from the NOAAs National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) and Center for Weather and Climate (CWC), Asheville, NC. Dr. Peterson is also current President of the World Meteorological Organizations Commission for Climatology and he was a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report.
Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference:

Registration is now open for the Third Annual Climate Adaptation Conference on January 28, 2016 at the Hilton DoubleTree in north Minneapolis. This conference is designed for local officials, planners, engineers, natural resource practitioners and others who want to learn more about adaptation strategies that have worked or are being tested in various sectors, tribal communities, energy, local foods, emergency management, communication and water resources. At the conference we will also hear from several major corporations about how they are addressing climate adaptation and listen to a mayors panel at lunch where they will discuss city approaches to climate adaptation.

For the second year, Climate Adaptation Awards will be presented to recognize achievements in leadership, education, research, policies, or practices that improve resilience and advance climate adaptation in Minnesota. We strongly encourage you to submit a nomination to recognize exemplary work by an individual, organization, institution, or the private sector. The submission process requires only a letter of nomination and two supporting letters. Nominations can be sent to Barbara Liukkonen, liukk001@umn.edu This conference promises to be an outstanding venue for disseminating results of your work, learning from others, and celebrating the accomplishments of Minnesota's climate adaptation leaders. Please consider nominating a deserving colleague or organization for an award.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


Another tropical cyclone formed in the Arabian Sea this week. Tropical Cyclone Megh is expected to grow in strength and bring rains to portions of the Horn of Africa (Somalia and Ethiopia) and Yemen along the Arabian Peninsula over the weekend and early next week. This storm follows Tropical Cyclone Chapala which dumped over a year’s worth of rain on portions of Yemen last week.

The BBC and UK Met Office have joined forces to develop a nationwide Weather Watchers Club which shares their observations, data, and pictures of the weather over social media. It is a rapidly growing organization with users who file up to 10 reports each day.

A joint study by the Hadley Centre scientists with the Chinese Meteorological Service has found that climate change is bringing a much higher probability for extremely hot spring seasons in northern China. Their research shows an 11-fold increase in the probability for an extremely warm spring across northern China as a result of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

The NOAA winter seasonal outlook for the Great Lakes Region, including Minnesota, is now available on the web and details expectations for temperature and precipitation patterns.



NOAA announced this week a new graphics tool available for use with data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Using this tool you can examine trends in data such as the extent of Arctic Sea Ice on a seasonal basis, or the extent of North American snow cover. Some of the trends are quite interesting.

For those interested in planning for climate change resilience the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) provides access to some down-scaled data sets that may be useful for planning at the local level. The variety of data sets available is described in an online NARCCAP document.

MPR Listener Question:


Recently NOAA scientists announced that they expect 2015 will be the hottest year globally for the record period from 1880-present, surpassing the previous record for warmth set just last year. But what has been the pattern so far this year in Minnesota? It hasn't felt like one of our warmest years to me.

Answer:


Minnesota has recorded a warmer than normal year so far, January through October of 2015, but no where near record-setting. The first ten months of the year rank close to 10th warmest in the last 120 years for Minnesota. It is likely that will still be the case by the end of the year, unless November and December temperatures depart significantly from normal. BTW the precipitation totals for the first 10 months of 2015 on a statewide basis rank as the 50th wettest year in history going back 120 years as well.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 6th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 6th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 73 degrees F in 1893; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1873: lowest daily minimum temperature is 0 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 53 F in 1975; record precipitation of 1.54 inches 2000; and record snowfall of 1.6 inches in 1933.

Average dew point for November 6th is 29 degrees F, with a maximum of 56 degrees F in 1975 and a minimum of -5 degrees F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 6th:


The state record high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is -16 degrees F at Moose Lake (Carlton County) in 1951. State record precipitation for this date is 2.15 inches at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1948; and record snowfall is 12.0 inches at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1919.

Past Weather Features:


An autumn rain storm brought widespread heavy precipitation to every area of the state over November 6-8, 1918. Many observers reported 1 to 2 inches of rain. Some southern counties reported over 2 inches.

The warmest November 6ths in state history occurred in 1934, 1975, and 2001. In all of those years multiple communities around the state reported daytime high temperatures in the 70s F, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s F. Even Tower (St Louis County), normally a cold spot in the state reached a high of 70 degrees F on this date in 2001.

An early winter storm over November 5-7, 1947 brought heavy snowfall to many areas of central and northeastern Minnesota. Many observers reported 4 to 8 inches of snow. Babbitt reported 11 inches, Virginia 14 inches, and Litchfield 10 inches. Schools were closed in some areas of the state.

The week following the famous Halloween Blizzard of 1991 was abnormally cold across Minnesota, bringing one of the coldest November 6ths in history. Sub-zero temperature readings prevailed across the state even as far south as Rushford (Fillmore County) where it was -2F. Most climate observers reported daytime highs in the teens and twenties F, while Ada (Norman County) rose no higher than 6F during the day.

A slow moving low pressure system brought widespread heavy rains to the state over November 5-7, 2000. Most areas of the state received 1-2 inches of rain. That particular November the rain rarely let up, as it was the wettest November in Minnesota history. Many observers reported total precipitation for the month of over 4 inches, and a few received over 5 inches.

Outlook:


Mostly sunny weekend with near normal temperatures on Saturday, then warming to above normal on Sunday with highs reaching the 50s and 60s F. Continued warmer than normal for Monday through Wednesday, then cooler with a chance for showers on Thursday.
  • © Regents of the University of Minnesota. All rights reserved.
  • The University of Minnesota is an equal opportunity educator and employer. Privacy