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Extension > Mark Seeley's WeatherTalk > Warmest first ten days of November

Friday, November 11, 2016

Warmest first ten days of November

Warmest first ten days of November:

The remarkable warmth so far this month is record-setting. For example in the Twin Cities, the average temperature for the first ten days of November is 53.7. This is nearly 14F above normal and surpasses the other warm first ten days of November which occurred in 1975, 2001, and 2015. This pattern is holding true at a number of locations around the state, including International Falls where the first ten days of November are average close to 46F also about 14F above normal. This too surpasses the other warmest Novembers of 1964, 1975, and 2015.

So far this month 32 daily high temperature records have been set within the Minnesota Cooperative Weather Observer Network across the state, including a remarkable reading of 78F at Mora (Kanabec County) on the 5th which tied the all-time state high temperature record for that date (set at Madison in Lac Qui Parle County back in 1975). In addition a handful of warmest overnight minimum temperature records have been set this month, including a low of 48F at Winona on the 2nd.

Kenny Blumenfeld of the State Climatology Office also notes that most observers around the state have reported record-setting warm minimum temperatures for the autumn season so far, even though nearly all have reported frosts as well. For the Twin Cities "...36F on the 9th is the warmest fall-to-date (Sep 1 Nov 9) minimum temperature ever recorded in the Twin Cities......the next warmest is 31F." Furthermore he notes "...This record is quite stable geographically. Milan and Waseca both broke their warmest fall-to-date minimum records this year, at 27F and 28F, respectively. Rochester, St. Cloud, Pipestone, Duluth, Morris, and Grand Rapids did it too. In other words, the coldest nights of fall have never been this warm...."

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Earlier this week NOAA scientists offered a "Briefing on La Nina Conditions" in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A La Nina episode is officially underway and expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter. One anomaly in play this year is a very warm Eastern Pacific Ocean which may modify the expected impacts of a La Nina episode during a North America winter.

There is an interesting article this week about the Smithsonian Institution's exhibit "What Does It Mean to Be Human." Rick Potts, Director of the Human Origins Program shares his thoughts about how climate variability governed human adaptation and evolution.

Earlier this week the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a detailed analysis of global climate over the period 2011-2015. This is the warmest five year period ever measured globally, and associated with a measured rise in sea level and a sharp decline in Arctic Sea Ice. It was also a period of many extreme climate events and episodes.

A recent article from Brown University explores some of the financial options being considered to to help pay for losses and damages that are expected to be inflicted by climate change. Two types of debt securities are discussed: climate-themed bonds and catastrophe bonds.

MPR listener question:

We love winter and just recently retired to the Brainerd Lakes area in central Minnesota where we hope to have more snow each winter. But so far this month no snow in the area. How often does November not produce any snowfall here?

Answer:

The Brainerd climate data show that since 1948 there have only been 7 years when November brought no snowfall to the Brainerd Lakes area. So that is close to a 1 in 10 year frequency. The good news is that once snow occurs in the Brainerd Lakes Area it tends to persist longer on the landscape than in does in the Twin Cities Metro Area.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 11th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 11th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 64 degrees F in 2005; lowest daily maximum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily minimum temperature is -1 degrees F in 1986; highest daily minimum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1930; record precipitation of 2.52 inches in 1940; and a record snowfall of 8.2 inches in 1940.

Average dew point for November 11th is 27 degrees F, with a maximum of 54 degrees F in 1964 and a minimum of -6 degrees F in 1986.

All-time state records for November 11th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 75 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -22 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1919. State record precipitation for this date is 2.52 inches in the Twin Cities in 1940; and record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Orr (St Louis County) in 1940.

Past Weather Features:

November 11, 1940 brought the famous Armistice Day Blizzard to Minnesota. Weather conditions deteriorated from a mild autumn pattern to blinding snow and dangerous windchill conditions in a matter of hours. Poorly forecasted this storm dumped from 16 to 24 inches of snow across many portions of Minnesota and paralyzed the state. At one point snow was falling at a rate of 3 inches per hour. At least 49 citizens lost their lives in the storm.

A warm front brought some September-like temperatures to many portions of southern Minnesota on November 11, 1949. at Austin, Grand Meadow, Winnebago, Worthington and Pipestone afternoon temperatures rose into the 70s F.

Winter-like conditions prevailed on November 11, 1986. Following a snowfall over the 8th and 9th temperatures plummeted to subzero readings nearly everywhere in the state. It was -6F at Rochester and -7F at Albert Lea, while the daytime high temperature never rose above 4F at Warroad.

November 11, 2012 provided a sharp contrast in weather across the state. South-central and southeastern Minnesota cities were enjoying afternoon temperatures in the 70s F while in the Red River Valley the daytime temperatures remained in the 20s F and low 30s F all day, with windchill conditions in the single digits.

Outlook:

Continuing to be sunny and mild over the weekend with daytime high temperatures well above average, though Saturday morning may start with a frost in many areas. Somewhat cooler on Monday and Tuesday, but still warmer than normal. Generally a dry period through next week.









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