tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61016626613974491542024-03-18T04:48:49.002-05:00Minnesota WeatherTalkUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger315125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-16508997773642039252024-03-15T08:12:00.000-05:002024-03-15T08:12:18.980-05:00Warm temperatures continue, drought worsens<h2 style="text-align: left;">Warm temperatures continue, drought worsens:</h2><br />Since last Friday, March 8th, fifteen more record daily high temperature records have been set in the Minnesota climate station network. Most of these occurred over March 10 and 11. Some of these included 75°F at Milan (Chippewa County), 74°F at Rochester (Olmsted County), and 73°F at Redwood Falls (Redwood County). The Twin Cities also set a record high on March 11 with a reading of 68°F. <br /><br />Through the first half of March, there have been 115 record high daily temperature records set or tied in the state. Average temperatures for the month so far are running 11°F to 15°F above normal. Even with some cooler than normal temperature expected over the next 10 days, March is highly likely to end up as another warmer than normal month. <br /><br />An interesting note about drought: By the end of a record-setting wet month of December, 2023 the area of Minnesota designated to be in Moderate Drought or worse was about 40 percent, but so far the first few months of 2024 have been dry enough that the area of the state currently in Moderate Drought or worse is nearly 75 percent. Most areas of the state have received little precipitation this month so far, with only a few places reporting over a quarter of an inch. This is undoubtedly a worrisome trend as lake levels are down, watershed flow volumes are down, soil moisture is down, and fire danger is up. However, it is yet early enough in the spring, that a turn to a wetter weather pattern could be highly beneficial before the spring planting season begins. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Anniversary of remarkable temperature change.... </h2><br />On this date in 1897, Detroit Lakes in Becker County reported a morning low of -43 degrees F, but by the next afternoon, less than 36 hours later, on March 16 the temperature was 45 degrees F, a rise of 88 degrees F! Typical March in Minnesota! <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3><br /> This week the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/weather/av/68483455" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported on “Zombie fires” which continue to burn throughout Canada even during the winter with heavy snow cover and subzero temperatures. These fires are hidden, burning dry materials under the snow and dead surface vegetation. They can smolder over the winter and then turn into major fires during the spring and summer. There are perhaps 150 “Zombie fires” currently burning in Canada, and many are being extinguished before the start of spring.<br /><br />After digesting and analyzing all of the climate data for December though February, <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/us-had-its-warmest-winter-on-record" target="_blank">NOAA</a> scientists announced last week the across the USA it was the warmest meteorological winter in 129 years. Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin each had their warmest winter on record. Twenty-six additional states saw their top-10 warmest winters on record.<br /><br />Dr. Anthony Hanson with the University of Minnesota Extension has evaluated this winter weather in the context of the impacts on major insect species that affect agriculture. He writes an interesting analysis that is worth reading. For example, the winter mortality on soybean aphid is likely to be quite low this year, and therefore soybean growers may wish to plant more aphid resistant varieties as they consider planting options this spring. He shares many other perspectives on corn rootworm, alfalfa weevil, potato leafhopper and other species to be on the watch for this coming season. His blog can be found under <a href="https://blog-crop-news.extension.umn.edu/2024/03/2024-insect-overwintering.html" target="_blank">Minnesota Crop News</a>.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4><br />Here in Long Prairie (Todd County) we have had no measurable precipitation through the first have of the month! Have we ever had no precipitation at all in the month of March? <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4><br />Yes, only one time. There was no measurable precipitation in Todd County during March of 1895. You are not alone in this designation. In March of 1895 observers in New London (Kandiyohi County), Beardsley (Big Stone County), and Alexandria (Douglas County) also reported no precipitation. There have also been other years when March brought no precipitation to some other parts of the state. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for March 15th: </h4><br /> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for March 15th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2015; lowest daily maximum temperature of 8 degrees F in 1900; lowest daily minimum temperature of -7 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 2016, and record precipitation of 0.85 inches in 1945. There was a record 5.0 inches of snowfall in 1899. <br /><br />Average dew point for March 15th is 20°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 52°F in 2003; and the minimum dew point on this date is -11 degrees F in 1979. <br /><br /><h4>All-time state records for March 15th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F at Waseca (Waseca County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1897. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.93 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1971. The state snowfall record is 21.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) also in 1971. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3><br />The coldest March 15 in state history was in 1897. Virtually all areas of the state recorded subzero temperatures with many areas reporting morning lows of -30°F or colder. With abundant snow on the ground, the daytime high temperature at Crookston only reached -4°F. <br /><br />On this date in 1941, one of the most sudden and severe blizzards in modern times struck North Dakota and Minnesota. The storm hit on a Saturday night while many were traveling, and thus claimed 71 lives. Winds gusts were of hurricane force. Grand Forks reported a gust of 85 mph, Fargo a gust of 74 mph, and Duluth a gust of 75 mph. Though snowfall amounts were generally modest, wind-driven snow drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Minnesota. Crookston in Polk County of the Red River Valley caught the most snow recording 12 inches. The associated cold front moved very rapidly, averaging 30 mph as it crossed Minnesota in just seven hours. The temperature dropped 18 degrees in 5 minutes when the storm hit the Duluth harbor. In the aftermath of this blizzard (and that of the Armistice Day Blizzard the previous November), the National Weather Service Office in Chicago relinquished forecast jurisdiction to the Minneapolis Office. <br /><br />March 15 of 2012 was the warmest in history, with 15 counties reporting afternoon temperatures of 70°F or greater. It was 66°F as far north as Gunflint Lake. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Cooler and breezy over the weekend, as we embark on a downward trend in temperatures that is likely to bring some below normal values for the first time this month. There will be a chance for snow showers in the far north on Saturday and again Monday. Elsewhere it will be mostly a cool and dry week coming up.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-28583135679301841342024-03-08T11:34:00.004-06:002024-03-08T11:34:36.225-06:00March Warmth<h2>March Warmth:</h2>The biggest weather headline this week occurred when March 3rd (Sunday) brought record-setting high temperatures to at least 60 Minnesota communities. Many observers reported afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s F. Some of the records included: <br /><br />78°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) new statewide record for the date <br />75°F at Wells (Faribault County), Waseca (Waseca County), Austin (Mower County), and Hastings Dam (Dakota County) <br />74°F at MSP, Jordan (Scott County), Albert Lea (Freeborn County), Zumbrota (Goodhue County) <br />73°F at Caledonia (Houston County), Winnebago (Faribault County), Preston (Fillmore County) <br />72°F at Rochester, Grand Meadow (Mower County), Dodge Center (Dodge County) <br />71°F at Fairmont (Martin County), La Crescent (Winona County) <br />70°F at St Cloud and Elk River (Sherburne County) <br />65°F at Lamberton (Redwood County) <br /><br />These were the warmest temperatures ever for so early in March. <br /><br />Following the record warmth, very dry air arrived on Tuesday, March 5th as afternoon dew points were in the single digits and relative humidity ranged from just 15 to 18 percent in many areas of the state. In the dry air, daily temperatures reached the 50s F in many parts of the state after morning lows in the teens. The same wide swings in air temperature occurred on Wednesday, with afternoon highs in the 50s F and relative humidity ranging from just 15 to 20 percent. Redwood Falls reached 60°F with a relative humidity of just 21 percent. With wind gusts over 30 mph and dry air prevailing, the National Weather Service issued Red Flag Warnings for parts of Minnesota on both days. <br /><br />Elsewhere this week, in northwestern and north-central Minnesota minor weather disturbances brought 1 to 3 inches of snowfall to places like Fergus Falls, Moorhead, Detroit Lakes, Park Rapids and Baudette. <br /><br />All of the NOAA models continue to indicate that March will bring warmer than normal temperatures to Minnesota, as over 50 percent of the landscape remains in at least Moderate Drought. Drought area is likely to expand unless we start to get above normal rainfall this spring. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>The <a href=" HTTPS://WWW.BBC.COM/NEWS/SCIENCE-ENVIRONMENT-68435197" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported this week that England and Wales recorded their warmest February in history. The United Kingdom as a whole recorded its 2nd warmest February in history. Four of the UK’s ten warmest Februarys have come in the last 6 years. The UK Met Office also reported that many areas reported a wetter than normal month of February, with some areas receiving 2.5 times normal rainfall.<br /><br />For book lovers, the <a href="HTTPS://WWW.BBC.CO.UK/PROGRAMMES/ARTICLES/47JZZKRCCQ2N4CK8YZ1VBYW/WEATHER-QUIZ-A-SPECIAL-QUIZ-ABOUT-WEATHER-IN-LITERATURE-FOR-WORLD-BOOK-DAY" target="_blank">BBC Weather Watchers</a> posted a fun quiz this week about the descriptive use of weather in class literature. It is fun to take the quiz and see how well versed you might be in class literature.<br /><br />The <a href="HTTPS://WWW.WUNDERGROUND.COM/ARTICLE/NEWS/CLIMATE/NEWS/2024-03-04-RECORD-WARMEST-FEBRUARY-EARTH-2024" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> reported this week that according to the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) the Earth recorded its warmest February last month. This followed the warmest year on record, 2023. Many parts of North America also recorded their warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb).<br /><br /><h4>MPR listener question: </h4>From a Twin Cities resident: How far south would we have to live to have the meteorological winter we just experienced be an “average” winter? What zone would that be, and when would the average last spring frost occur? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>The Twin Cities recorded a meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in 2023-2024 that was totally record-setting in temperature, with a mean value of nearly 30°F (29.9°F), about 10-11°F about normal. This is equivalent to a normal winter at St Joseph, Missouri, about 425 miles south of the Twin Cities. According to the most recent USDA Plant Hardiness Zones, St Joseph, MO is zone 6a (annual extreme minimum temperature between -5°F and -10°F) for gardening and landscaping purposes. The average last spring frost date for St Joseph, MO is April 15th. (for the Twin Cities it is April 23). <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for March 8th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 22 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for March 8th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2016; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of -8 degrees F in 1877; highest daily minimum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1878 record precipitation of 0.94 inches in 1999. There was a record 12.5 inches of snowfall also in 1999. <br /><br />Average dew point for March 8th is 15°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -17 degrees F in 1967. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for March 8th:</h4> The state record high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2000. The state record low temperature for this date is -38 degrees F at McIntosh (Polk County) in 1908. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.22 inches at Breckenridge (Wilkin County) in 1878. The state snowfall record is 14.5 inches at Spring Grove (Houston County) in 1961. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>Arctic air gripped the state on March 8 of 1943. Most places reported subzero morning low temperatures with minus 20s and minus 30s F. The daytime high temperature only reached 4°F at Detroit Lakes. <br /><br />One of the snowiest periods ever in March occurred over the 4th through the 10th in 1961. Many areas reported from 1 foot to 2 feet of snowfall, with drifts up to 10 feet high. There were school closures on multiple days. <br /><br />The warmest March 8th was in 1980 when dozens of communities reported afternoon high temperatures in the 70s F. The temperature surpassed 80°F in five southern Minnesota counties, and Winona reported a warm overnight low temperature of 60°F. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2>Sunny over the weekend with temperatures on the rise. Well above normal temperatures by Monday through Wednesday of next week. Slight chance for rain later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-56204055853239554512024-03-01T13:34:00.001-06:002024-03-02T07:51:11.295-06:00Climate Summary for February<br /><h2>Climate Summary for February:</h2>A remarkable warm February this year brought only 2-3 days with colder than normal temperatures. The vast majority of days brought warmer than normal temperatures and on some days record-setting temperatures. Within the state climate station network, there were 221 daily high maximum temperature records set or tied, including many days with highs in the 50s and 60s F. A few stations even hit the 70°F mark. In addition to setting so many high daily maximum records, a number of days brought record-setting warm nights, with 208 daily warm minimum temperature records set or tied during the month. Contrary to our national reputation, Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states only once during February, and that was on the last day of the month, February 29th with -22°F reported from International Falls. <br /><br />Overall, most Minnesota climate stations reported a mean monthly temperature that was from 12°F to 14°F above normal. This is rare territory statistically speaking, and over 20 long term climate stations so far have reported their warmest month of February in history, including MSP, St Cloud, Milan, Rochester, and Redwood Falls. International Falls was on track for its warmest February until back-to-back nighttime temperatures of -20°F and -22°F ended the month, offsetting much of the accumulated, record-setting warmth. They still ranked as the 3rd warmest February in history, It remains to be seen how the statewide ranking for February temperature historically comes out. <br /><br />Moisture-wise, most areas of the state reported less than normal precipitation for the month of February. The statewide average precipitation in February was 0.55 inches, but a number of places reported over an inch, while Big Falls (Koochiching County) and Lake Wilson (Murray County) reported over 2 inches. In terms of monthly snowfall, International Falls and Warroad reported over 8 inches, while most of the rest of the state reported less than 5 inches. Valentine’ day brought record daily snowfalls to MSP (6.9”), Hastings Dam (5.2”), and Milan (5.0”). Then February 26th brought record snowfalls to Baudette (6.0”) and Warroad (5.0”). But, with persistent warm temperatures and many days bringing sunny skies, little snow cover persisted during the month. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Wrapping up meteorological winter (Dec-Feb): </h2><br />With the very warm February to go along with the warmest December in state history, as well as a warmer than normal January, the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) will go down as the warmest in state history without question, surpassing the old record set in the winter of 1997-1998 by roughly 2.0°F. MSP even surpassed the Pioneer Era record warm winter of 1877-1878. So far, over 65 long-term climate stations have officially reported 2023-2024 as their warmest winter in history. <br /><br />Many communities reported a record number of days with temperatures of 50°F or higher during this winter, including MSP with 18 days. In addition, even northern Minnesota communities reported a record number of days with temperatures above the freezing mark (32°F), including International Falls which reported 40 such days this winter. <br /><br />Winter moisture started with a record-setting wet month of December, wettest in history. Most of the precipitation came as rain. This was followed by a drier than normal January and February. Overall, most places in Minnesota have received above average precipitation since December 1st, but thanks entirely to the record-setting wetness of December. <br /><br />The warm pattern so entrenched in the winter season is expected to persist throughout the spring season as well, according to most of the NOAA outlook models. Models give no clear indication of whether to expect a wetter or drier than normal spring season in Minnesota. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3> The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68406880" target="_blank">BBC</a> features an interesting article about the loss of ice in Antarctica as viewed from satellite imagery since the 1970s. New analyses has revealed in acceleration in ice loss over recent decades. <br /><br />According to the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/weather/news/2024-02-27-texas-fires-canadian-hemphill-hutchinson" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a>, this week’s wildfire in the Texas panhandle has grown to the largest in state history. The Smokehouse Creek Fire has burned over 1700 square miles. Many structures have been damaged or destroyed by the fire. Part of the Texas panhandle was in Severe Drought going into this winter.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>In recent weeks you reported about near-record setting low amounts of seasonal snowfall for some parts of Minnesota. Now that we have come to the end of February, can you update for us? <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>Sure can. Looking at total snowfall from October 1 of 2023 through February 29 of 2024, I find the following record-setting low amounts: <br /><br />5.6 inches at Austin (Mower County) <br />11.0 inches at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) <br />4.8 inches at Wheaton (Traverse County) <br /><br /> <br />In addition, I find that the following locations have recorded their 3rd ranked lowest snow season so far: <br /><br />Gunflint Lake (Cook County) with 21.7 inches <br />Duluth (St Louis County) with 18.7 inches <br />Albert Lea (Freeborn County) with 7.8 inches <br />Brainerd (Crow Wing County) with 10.9 inches <br />Park Rapids (Hubbard County) with 8.5 inches <br />Collegeville (Stearns County) with 9.8 inches <br /><br />BTW, the Twin Cities at 14.3 inches so far ranks as the 7th lowest snow season, while Rochester at 11.9 inches ranks as the 6th lowest historically. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for March 1st: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 34 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for March 1st: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of 0 degrees F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1962; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2004; record precipitation of 1.62 inches in 1965. There was a record 9.0 inches of snowfall in 2007. <br /><br />Average dew point for March 1st is 14°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 45°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -23 degrees F in 1967. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for March 1st:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Ashby (Grant County) in 1907. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Bigfork (Itasca County) in 1962. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Jordan (Scott County) in 2007. The state snowfall record is 18.8 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1965. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>The coldest ever March 1st was in 1962. That morning most residents of Minnesota awoke to temperatures ranging from -20°F to -40°F, as cold high pressure settled in over abundant snow pack across the state. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) only reached minus 14°F. <br /><br />A major winter storm brought heavy snows to Minnesota over March 1-3 of 1965. Many parts of central and northern Minnesota measured 10 to 20 inches of snow from this storm. Over 2 feet of snow fell in parts of Renville and Stearns Counties. There were widespread school closures. <br /><br />The warmest ever March 1st was in 1992, when many areas of the state saw afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. Milan in Chippewa County saw 70°F and with the absence of snow cover, some farmers were seen doing tillage in their fields. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Continuing to warm up well above normal on Saturday and Sunday. Increasing cloudiness late in the day Sunday, with a chance for rain or snow into Monday. Then, cooler (still above normal) and drier for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a chance for showers again by Thursday. Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-79832669093194639192024-02-23T13:38:00.000-06:002024-02-23T13:38:11.439-06:00Record warm February is guaranteed<h2>Record warm February is guaranteed:</h2><br />With only a couple of colder than normal days this month, the persistent above normal temperatures so characteristic of the climate since December 1st (75 percent of all days) will carry on to the end of the month and undoubtedly help set a record for the warmest February in state history, matching the warmest December in state history which occurred just two months ago. On Thursday (Feb 22) temperatures climbed into the 50s F at many locations across Minnesota, and even reached 60°F at Caledonia (Houston County). <br /><br />Some absurd numbers to contemplate: The average number of days that the daily temperatures climb above freezing (32°F) in the Twin Cities during the winter season (Dec-February) is 31 days. Similarly for International Falls (the Nation’s Icebox) it is 11 days. So far in the winter of 2023-2024 with another week to go in February, MSP has reported 58 days with maximum temperatures above freezing (32°F) this winter (Dec-Feb), while International Falls has reported 42 such days. These are record-setting number of days to be above the freezing mark. It is likely that meteorological winter will end up being 12-13°F warmer than normal on both a statewide basis and in the Twin Cities. <br /><br />In addition, seasonal snowfall totals are some of the lowest in history for many long term climate stations in Minnesota. Some examples: <br /><br />Twin Cities: 14.2 inches <br />Rochester 10.5 inches <br />Saint Cloud 13.6 inches <br />Duluth 17.7 inches <br />International Falls 25.7 inches <br />Itasca State Park 10 inches <br /><br />Granted some late season snowfalls may still occur in March and April, but according to the outlook models this appears unlikely. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3> This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/science-updates/decoding-the-dialogue-between-clouds-and-land" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features a fascinating article about the dynamics of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) driven by landscape interactions and cloud formation. It is far more complex than previously known, especially with respect to formation of convective cloud systems. <br /><br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68338020" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported this week that persistent torrential rains have flooded most of Bolivia in South America, filling most reservoirs to capacity. There has been significant death toll due to flooding and landslides, following a record warm period and drought last year.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/corporate/2024/new-stamps-dedicated-to-weather-forecasting" target="_blank">United Kingdom Meteorological Office</a> announced this week that the Royal Mail Service is releasing 8 new stamps to commemorate the 170th anniversary of the Met Office in that country. The stamps depict the people, technology, and services provided by the Met Office and will undoubtedly be a popular item for stamp collectors.<br /><br />Earlier this month the <a href="https://media.bom.gov.au/releases/1217/australias-climate-in-2023-warmer-with-contrasting-rainfall/" target="_blank">Bureau of Meteorology in Australia</a> released its Annual Assessment of the Climate of 2023, which was the 8th warmest year of record in that country. They also stated that the winter of 2023 was the warmest ever historically. Rainfall was highly variable north to south across the country, with greater amounts in the north. The month of September was the driest ever.<br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>The year 2012 we remember as a very hot one throughout the Midwest. We were wondering of 2012 might have been an El Nino year, but there is no indication that it was. So why were the spring and summer of 2012 so hot? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>You are correct about 2012, as every month of the year from January through July was warmer than normal, with some downturn in temperature finally coming in August and September. The year actually started in the grip of a modest La Nina episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, but I don’t think that solely explains the hot climate of 2012. Two other factors are noteworthy of that year: Drought was in place early in the year across the southern plains states and the southwestern states of NM and AZ. This drought spread northeast across Nebraska, Iowa and up into Minnesota as the year progressed. The drier landscape heated up more readily from the higher sun angles in spring and summer. Secondly there were many days with strong southwesterly winds blowing from the Sonoran Heat Ridge in the southwester USA that brought warm air masses northeast into the central and upper plains states including Minnesota. In March of 2012 875 maximum temperature records were set within the state climate network and from April to June another 137 daily maximum temperature records were tied or broken in Minnesota. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for February 23rd: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 16 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for February 23rd: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 1958; lowest daily maximum temperature of -8 degrees F in 1889; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1889; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1931; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1909. There was a record 6.5 inches of snowfall in 2023. <br /><br />Average dew point for February 23rd is 15°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 45°F in 2000; and the minimum dew point on this date is -23 degrees F in 1967. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for February 23rd:</h4> The state record high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F at Lake Wilson (Murray County) in 2000. The state record low temperature for this date is -43 degrees F at St Vincent (Kittson County) in 1889. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.35 inches at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1922. The state snowfall record is 25.0 inches also at both Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1922. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>An Arctic air mass brought record-setting low temperatures to many parts of Minnesota on February 23 of 1889. Many areas saw morning lows of -30°F or colder. With over a foot of snow cover, Moorhead reported a morning low of -35°F and an afternoon high of -13°F. <br /><br />One of the worst ever February winter storms passed over the state from February 21 to February 23 of 1922. It brought rain. Freezing rain, sleet, snow, thunder, and even lightning. Winds gusted 40 mph. Southeastern counties recorded one of the worst ice storms in history which brought down power lines that took days to restore. Many areas reported from 9 to 18 inches of snow, and Detroit Lakes (Becker County) reported 25 inches. <br /><br />Probably the warmest ever February 23rd was in 2000, when many areas of the state reported afternoon high temperatures in the 50s and 60s F. It was 60°F as far north as Blackduck in Beltrami County. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2> Sunny, breezy, and warmer than normal over the weekend. Increasing clouds on Monday, still quite warm, but with a chance for rain or snow in the far north. Chance for rain/snow on Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures. Then warming up towards the end of next week.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-41382582523298536922024-02-16T11:13:00.005-06:002024-02-16T11:13:47.563-06:00A Brief Taste of Winter<h2>A Brief Taste of Winter:</h2>Valentine’s Day brought a brief return to winter with the heaviest snowfall of the season for many parts of the state. Seven to eight hours of snowfall, sometimes mixed with rain produced difficult driving conditions resulting in over 300 crash reports according to the Minnesota Stzate Patrol. Across central Minnesota many observers reported 3 to 6 inches, with a few reports of 7 inches or more (near New Prague and Hastings). A few spots reported record amounts of snowfall, including: <br /><br />6.9 inches at MSP <br />6.5 inches at Bird Island in Renville County (tied record from 1967) <br />5.3 inches at Kimball in Stearns County <br />5.2 inches at Hastings Dam in Dakota County <br /><br />Following the snowstorm, colder air swept into the state bring the first days (Thu and Fri) of near normal or colder than normal temperatures since January 20th. Temperatures are expected to warm up above normal values again over the weekend and remain so for the rest of the month. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Still on Track to Be the Warmest Meteorological Winter (Dec-Feb): </h2>Though the arrival of snow and colder temperatures this week slowed the pace of record warmth this winter, the statewide average temperature since December 1 of 2023 remains roughly 13°F above normal. A number of climate stations have reported a record number of days with high temperatures of 50°F or greater this winter. Some of these include: <br /><br />MSP with 12 days <br />Rochester with 9 days <br />St Peter with 11 days <br />Granite Falls with 10 days <br /><br /> According to medium range models we may see more high temperatures of 50°F or greater over the last week of February. MSP and other climate stations remain on a pace to break the record for the warmest month of February by several degrees, and we may see monthly mean temperatures for February that are 13°F to 15°F above normal. Of further note, the latest extended forecast from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center indicates that above normal temperatures will likely dominate most of Minnesota in March. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/research-spotlights/the-escalating-impact-of-global-warming-on-atmospheric-rivers" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features a new study about atmospheric rivers, those concentrate ed streams of water vapor embedded in the troposphere that are so visible on satellite imagery. The study finds that climate change will continue to increase the frequency and amplitude of these atmospheric rivers over certain geographies, increasing the risk of extreme and damaging storms.<br /><br />This week the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68253819" target="_blank">BBC</a> reviews a recent study of polar bears in the Arctic. The study tracked polar bear eating habits and weight gain and loss. The animals use the sea ice as a platform to hunt ringed seals, which have high concentrations of fat, mostly in late spring and early summer. The polar bears hunts these seals from ice floes, but in some areas the ice-free period has increased by three weeks between 1979 and 2015. When they cannot hunt from ice floes, they scavenge on land, but usually lose weight due to different food availability.<br /><br />Jonathan Erdman of the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/winter/news/2024-02-15-record-warm-winter-midwest-northeast-west-2023-2024" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> provides a nice synopsis this week of all the communities in the Midwest and Northeast that are likely to set new warm records for meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) once the month of February finishes. Besides all the communities in Minnesota experiencing a record warm winter, so are residents in places like Cedar Rapids, IA, Fargo, ND, and Caribou, ME. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>We heard the Twin cities received a record snowfall for Valentine’s Day, 6.9 inches, and wondered how often a daily snowfall that size occurs in the month of February? Seems rare. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>You are right about that being a rare amount for February. Since 1885, a period of 140 years, there have been only 14 daily snowfalls of 6.9 inches or greater during the month. The record most daily amount for February is 11/8 inches on the 20th in 2011. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>I understand that our strange weather is due the combination of global warming and the El Niño. I’ve been wondering if global warming affects the frequency of El Niño episodes? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>El Nino episodes are pretty well documented back to 1950. Their frequency and duration have been highly variable historically, and so far there is no scientific evidence to suggest that these historical variabilities have changed significantly with climate change. But I am sure there are continued studies about this. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for February 16th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for February 16th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 1981; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degrees F in 1903; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1936; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1998; record precipitation of 0.40 inches in 1878. There was a record 3.2 inches of snowfall in 1938. <br /><br />Average dew point for February 16th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 38°F in 2011; and the minimum dew point on this date is -29 degrees F in 1973. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for February 16th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1981. The state record low temperature for this date is -59 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1903. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.20 inches at Brainerd (Crow Wing County) in 1921. The state snowfall record is 12.0 inches at both Aitkin (Aitkin County) and Mora (Kanabec County) in 1990. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>February 16 of 1936 brought Arctic cold to most of Minnesota. Many new low temperature records were set, as subzero temperatures prevailed across the state, ranging from -25°F to -45°F. The afternoon high temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -25°F. <br /><br />By far the warmest February 16th was in 1981. With little or no snow on the ground in most areas, afternoon temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s F, setting many records highs. High temperatures of 60°F or greater were reported from 25 counties. <br /><br />Parts of Minnesota from Little Falls to Cloquet were hit with heavy snowfalls from a winter storm over February 15-16 of 1990. Many observers reported from 8 to 12 inches of snowfall. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2> Generally breezy with partly cloudy skies on Saturday. There will be a slight chance for snow in the farm north, as temperatures warm back to above normal levels. More sun in some areas on Sunday and temperatures will continue to warm. It appears next week with be dry with well above normal temperatures in most places.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-9702479313172799732024-02-09T10:37:00.000-06:002024-02-09T10:37:09.922-06:00Remarkably Warm Start to February<h2>Remarkably Warm Start to February:</h2><p>The record-setting warm December-January is being punctuated with an exclamation mark during the first 8 days of February which are averaging 25.2°F above normal on a statewide basis. In fact, these are the warmest first 8 days of February in state history, surpassing 1991 and 2005.</p><p>Over 40 climate stations have reported multiple days of 50° F or higher maximum temperatures so far this month, including northern locations such as Baudette, Tower, and Itasca State Park. Within the statewide climate observing network over 120 new daily high maximum temperatures have been set and over 140 new warm daily minimum temperature records have been set during the first 8 days of the month. Many overnight low temperatures remained above freezing this week, even as far north as International Falls where the low temperature was 36°F on February 8th. This prolonged the thawing cycle for soils and lakes, as ice thickness declined to unsafe levels in many areas, and soils completely thawed out. <br /><br />The relative absence of soil frost and snow cover over 70 percent of the state landscape is very rare for this time of year. In fact, the warmer than normal soil temperatures will make it difficult for snowfall to stick around over the second half of February even if air temperatures are cold enough to produce some snowfall. <br /><br />Citizens have been tapping their maple tress for early sap flow, and also noticing early bud formation on many trees and shrubs. My wife and I have notice many birds cleaning up in the bird bath as well. <br /><br />Outlook guidance suggests that temperatures will slowly drop closer to normal for the balance of the month, but no Arctic Outbreak, or even prolonged spell of colder than normal temperatures is seen. <br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">125th Anniversary of the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899:</h2><p>Today is the anniversary of two arctic cold outbreaks which produced some rather striking effects on the mighty Mississippi River. On this date in 1835 and again in 1899 the river was frozen deeply at Ft Snelling, allowing for foot and sleigh traffic. Low temperatures in Minnesota ranged from the -30s F to the -50s F. The Mississippi River was also frozen enough for skating and sledding as far south as St Louis, and ice floes were observed entering the Gulf of Mexico out of New Orleans. Climate measurements were rare in 1835, but in 1899 the Great Arctic Outbreak was well documented by the Weather Service. On the morning of February 9 of 1899 while many climate stations in Minnesota were reporting temperatures in the minus 40s to minus 50s F, parts of Louisiana recorded their all-time coldest temperatures with 7 degrees F at New Orleans and -4 degrees F at Shreveport. The 1899 cold wave struck the Gulf and eastern seaboard states with great ferocity. Parts of Florida received 3.5 inches of snow and other record lows occurred including: <br /><br />-6 degrees F at Atlanta 10 degrees F at Jacksonville <br />-2 degrees F at Tallahassee -15 degrees F in Washington, D.C. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p style="text-align: left;"> Record-setting rains brought floods and landslides to much of southern California earlier this week, over Sunday through Tuesday. Many climate stations reported over 5 inches of rain. Long Beach reported over 7.5 inches, downtown LA reported 8.88 inches, and San Gabriel Canyon reported just under 10 inches. The mountains east of LA reported from 2 to 4 feet of fresh snow. The <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/news/2024-02-05-california-rain-storm-flooding-live-updates" target="_blank">Weather Underground </a>provided a more detailed narrative about this storms on their web site.<br /><br /> <br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310" target="_blank">BBC </a>reported this week that the EU’s Climate Service has shown that the global temperature anomaly for the most recent 12 months (Feb 2023 to Jan 2024) exceeded 1.5°F, the threshold agreed to prevent by the landmark Paris Agreement in 2015. They also report that the average daily global sea surface temperature (records back to 1979), between latitudes 60° N and 60°F south has set a new all-time record high of 21.05°C (69.9°F) when it reached that level of February 3 of 2024. More aggressive strategies to restrict emissions of GHG are encouraged.<br /><br /> <br />An article in this week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/poorer-countries-face-heavier-consequences-of-climate-change" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features a study about the poleward shift in vegetation types that is produced by climate change. This has great implications for forests and the timber industry in many countries. Countries that are economically dependent on their natural resources will be more profoundly impacted. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">Have we ever had a snowless February in the Twin Cities? If not, what is the least amount of snow we have had this month? <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">We have never had a snowless February since official snow observations started in 1884. The closest to a snowless February were in 1894 and 2017 when only 0.3 inches was measured for the month, and in 1935 when only 0.8 inches was measured. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for February 9th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for February 9th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1966; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degrees F in 1899; lowest daily minimum temperature of -33 degrees F in 1899; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 1966; record precipitation of 0.92 inches in 1965. There was a record 8.0 inches of snowfall in 1939. <br /><br />Average dew point for February 9th is 6°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is -47 degrees F in 1996. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for February 9th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -59 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1899. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Collegeville (Stearns County) in 1909. The state snowfall record is 15.0 inches also at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) also in 1909. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">The coldest February 9th was in 1899, when Arctic air gripped the state producing morning lows from -20°F to -40°F across the state. Itasca, Hubbard, Becker, and Cass counties reported morning lows of -50°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Detroit Lakes only reached -32°F. <br /><br />A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfall across the state over February 9-10 of 1909. Many climate stations reported 8 to 16 inches of snowfall, with drifts as high as 6 feet. New Ulm reported 18 inches of snow. <br /><br />The warmest February 9th occurred in 1991 when much of the state saw afternoon temperatures in the 50s F. Citizens in Brown, Redwood, and Yellow Medicine Counties took lunch break outside in 60 degrees F temperatures. <br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;"> Blustery with cooler temperatures over the weekend, but still warmer than normal for this time of year. Generally dry with a chance for snow by the middle of next week, as temperatures slowly drop to near normal levels for February. </p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-43620458689178183752024-02-02T09:33:00.000-06:002024-02-02T09:33:09.518-06:00January Climate Summary<h2>January Climate Summary:</h2>Warm and dry describe the month of January 2024 in Minnesota. Despite having 8 or 9 colder than normal days in mid-month, many nights of subzero, the statewide average temperature for January will rank as the 10th warmest in history, over 7°F above normal. The last week of January brought temperatures that average 24°F above normal. In addition, some record high dew points were measured as well. When combined with the record-setting warm December, the first two months of meteorological winter (Dec-Jan) rank as the warmest in state history (surpassing 2011-2012). Of further note, the three-months of November through January rank as the 2nd warmest in state history, trailing only 2001-2002. <br /><br />Dozens of daily high maximum temperature records were set within the state climate observation network, and well over 100 new daily records were set for warm minimum temperatures, as many nights brought fog and kept temperatures in the 20s and 30s F. No new statewide temperature records were set, although both Marshall and Canby hit 60°F on the last day of the month. Northern Minnesota communities saw the most astonishing records, especially on January 31st when daytime highs surpassed 50°F at places like Baudette, International Falls, Bigfork, Flag Island (NW Angle), and Hibbing. Many golf courses and bike trails were open for business. <br /><br />Here is the relative ranking of the mean January temperature for a few locations: <br />International Falls recorded its 5th warmest January <br />Hibbing recorded its 8th warmest January <br />St Cloud reported its 10th warmest January <br />MSP reported its 11th warmest January <br /><br />In addition, the first two days of February brought some record warm temperatures to Minnesota, including 51°F at St Peter and 50°F at Winnebago, and the forecast guidance suggests that more record-setting temperatures may occur over the first ten days of February. <br /><br />Moisture-wise, January was drier than normal across most of the state. Only a few spots along the north shore of Lake Superior, and in southwestern and southeastern Minnesota reported above normal precipitation. Many climate stations reported less than half of normal January precipitation, including MSP with just 0.13 inches, St Cloud with 0.20 inches, Redwood Falls with 0.10 inches, Winnebago with 0.23 inches, and Faribault with 0.20 inches. For the Twin Cities (MSP) the 0.13 inches translates to the 4th driest January in history. <br /><br />With the exception of far north-central and northeastern communities, most places were snow starved in January, with many observers reporting less than 4 inches. At many locations only 5 or 6 days brought snow, always in light amounts. Some places in northeastern Minnesota received 15 to 17 inches of snowfall. <br /><br />Unlike most Januarys, clear skies were rare this month. The month was dominated by clouds or fog. Over a third of the days brought fog to many areas of the state, including several mornings with thick fog. <br /><br />January warmth and dryness helped reduce the workloads of medical personnel who treat victims of accidental falls due to snow and ice according to the orthopedic clinic where my wife goes. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Happy Groundhogs Day: </h2><br />Today, February 2nd, marks another Groundhog Day or Candlemas Day (changing the stock of candles in the church), the half way point of winter, and in 1996 the coldest day in Minnesota history, setting a state record of -60 degrees F at Tower, MN. The Groundhog did not see his shadow this year, indicating an early spring is on its way.<br /><br />The largest contrasts in temperature conditions on Groundhog Day occurred during the 1990s. In 1991 several communities reported daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to mid 60s F and numerous records were set, including 48 F in the Twin Cities and a remarkable 66 F at Wheaton (Traverse County). Conversely in 1996 Minnesota marked one of its coldest days in history with morning lows of -50 degrees F or colder at twelve different locations, and a new statewide record low of -60 degrees F at Tower, MN. Not many states can claim Groundhog Day as marking their coldest temperature in history. <br /><br /><h3>Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3>According to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/68146091" target="_blank">BBC</a>, many parts of Europe are concerned about drought for this coming growing season. Rainfall and snowfall have been below normal in many areas. There is concern that their food production system may be hurt by this and provoke rises in food prices.<br /><br />A new study from the University of Reading and published in the <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-23-0209.1/BAMS-D-23-0209.1.xml" target="_blank">Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society</a> finds that the remarkable warm sea surface temperatures so prevalent during 2023 may become more frequent with climate change and provoke even more extreme measures of climate in terms of water vapor and temperature as we proceed into the future. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>We are trying to find reason for hope to salvage the 2023-2024 snow season. Can you tell us how often February or March has been the snowiest month of the season in the Metro Area of the Twin Cities? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>We have 139 years of record back to 1885. The data show that 19 times February as been the snowiest month (about 14 percent), and that 30 times March has been the snowiest month (about 22 percent). So there is about a 1 in 3 chance historically that either of those months produce the most snow during the snow season. Checking to see how often the February-March period brings above normal snowfall during an El Nino episodes, this too yields about a 1 in 3 chance. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for February 2nd: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for February 2nd: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily maximum temperature of -17 degrees F in 1996; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1996; highest daily minimum temperature of 31 degrees F in 2020; record precipitation of 0.80 inches in 1919. There was a record 8.8 inches of snowfall in 2016. <br /><br />Average dew point for February 2nd is 3°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is -47 degrees F in 1996. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for February 2nd:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1991. The state record low temperature for this date is -60 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.00 inches at Caledonia (Housston County) in 1915. The state snowfall record is 20.0 inches also at Caledonia (Houston County) in 1915. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>Back-to-back winter storms brought heavy snowfall to Minnesota the first week of February in 1915. Many observers reported snowfall everyday of the week, in many cases totaling 10 to 20 inches. Some southern locations reported over two feet of snow. <br /><br />Record-setting warm temperatures prevailed across much of Minnesota on February 2 of 1991. At least 25 counties reported temperatures in the 50s F, while observers in four western counties reported highs of 60°F or greater. International Falls reached a high of 55°F with 18 inches of snow on the ground. <br /><br />The coldest February 2nd in state history was in 1996. It was also the coldest for many neighboring states as well. Twelve Minnesota climate stations reported a morning temperature of -50°F or colder. The daily high temperature at Red Lake Falls only reached -30°F. and Rochester reported a low of -35°F and a high of -20°F. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br />Continued very warm temperatures through the weekend with plenty of sunshine. The warm temperatures will dominate the first full week of February, perhaps modified a bit by chances for rain or slushy snow by late Wednesday and on Thursday. Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-70223580303726144982024-01-26T09:14:00.002-06:002024-01-26T09:14:58.512-06:00Historical Context for These Warm Temperatures<h2>Historical Context for These Warm Temperatures:</h2>December of 2023 was the warmest in state climate history averaging over 14°F above normal on a statewide basis. Almost all of the days recorded above normal temperatures. This followed a November when over two-thirds of the day were warmer than normal, giving us a mean monthly temperature that was 4.0°F above normal. So, the November/December combination to end the year 2023 was the 2nd warmest in state history, trailing 2001 by a small margin. <br /><br />Now that the Arctic Cold Wave is behind us, it is estimated that the last ten days of January will average 15-19°F above normal across the state. This will offset the mid-month cold spell and likely give us an average monthly temperature for January that is about 5.5°F to 6.0°F above normal (statewide basis). Such numbers mean that the Dec/Jan combination of this winter will be the warmest in state history, surpassing that of 2011-2012. The combined months of November through January (2023-2024) will be the 2nd warmest in state history, behind only 2001-2002. <br /><br />One remaining question for meteorologists and climatologists to scratch their heads about is will the meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) set a new statewide record for warm temperatures. The key uncertainty is how temperatures will trend in February. Based on the outlook models, temperatures will trend above normal in February, but by how much. If the statewide February mean temperature is more than 6°F above normal, we may have a shot at setting a record warm meteorological winter. <br /><br />Since the current El Nino episode is ranked among the strongest recorded, I looked at the previous top 5 wintertime El Nino episodes historically (1983, 1998, 1973, 1931, and 1992). For these five years the average February temperature in Minnesota (statewide) was 10.6°F warmer than normal. In this context, a significantly warmer than normal February seems likely and the medium range forecast models suggest we could see temperatures as much as 15°F warmer than normal for the first two weeks of February. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3> A recent study published in <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022WR034263" target="_blank">Water Resources Research</a> documents the changes in frequency of extreme pluvial events such as droughts and floods and shows a geographic disparity as a result of climate change. Some climate patterns have produced floods and droughts across the same geographic region with a year of each other, marking a very short transition between extremely wet patterns and extremely dry patters. This type of climate behavior is expected to be more prevalent with climate change in some regions of the world.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68032361" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported this week on a study of drought in the Amazon rain forests of South America. The drought of 2023 was arguably the worst ever in that region, and recent research finds that it was driven mostly by the vast deforestation that has occurred there over recent decades combined with climate change trends across the Southern Hemisphere. The article is worth a read.<br /><br /><a href="https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2024-01-24-afc-championship-forecast-baltimore-nfl?cm_ven=hp-slot-5" target="_blank">The Weather Channel</a> features an article about how the weather may affect the AFC Championship football game in Baltimore this Sunday (Ravens vs Chiefs). The weather is expected to be wet and windy, perhaps affecting both the passing and kicking elements of the game. The NFC Championship is California (49ers vs Lions) is expected to see fine weather.<br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>We have heard meteorologists talk about warm nights this month in the 20s and 30s F. We wondered if you knew what the record was for the warmest nighttime minimum in the month of January? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>The warmest minimum temperature during January for the Twin Cities is 42°F back on January 25 of 1944. That same night the minimum temperature was 49°F at Winona setting a statewide record for high minimum temperature. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for January 26th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 16 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for January 26th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum temperature of -9 degrees F in 1972; lowest daily minimum temperature of -26 degrees F in 1897; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1911; record precipitation of 0.37 inches in 1910. There was a record 7.4 inches of snowfall in 2004. <br /><br />Average dew point for January 26th is 1°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 37°F in 1944; and the minimum dew point on this date is -41 degrees F in 1946. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for January 26th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1944. The state record low temperature for this date is -55 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1904. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.00 inches at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 2004. The state snowfall record is 24.0 inches at Tamarac Refuge (Becker County) in 2004. <br /><h4>Words of the Week: Cat Connotations </h4>Most people have heard of the term "raining cats and dogs", which has been in use for centuries, with specific reference to how loud a hard rain can be. But the word cat is also used by meteorologists to describe other features of the weather. <br /><br />Cat ice (shell ice) is the thin layer of unbroken ice which remains over a pond, lake or stream after the water level drops, leaving a cavity between the water surface below and the ice above. Presumably the connotation is that this ice could only support the weight of a cat. <br /><br />Cat's Paw is a term used to describe a very local scale light breeze that is just enough to cause irregular patches of ripples on an otherwise glassy water surface. This creates a pattern not unlike a series of cat paw prints. <br /><br />Cat's Nose is a term used in England and some other countries to describe a cool northwest wind which may have the same effect as being touched on the face or hands by a cold cat's nose. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>Early this week on January 23rd was the 244th anniversary of some of the coldest weather during the Revolutionary War for Independence. A temperature of -16 degrees F below zero was registered in New York City. The New York harbor was frozen over, as were all ports along the east coast as far south as North Carolina. The persistent winter cold produced ice so thick that British soldiers could haul cannons from Manhattan across the ice to Staten Island. In fact, General Washington ordered Major General Stirling to take 3000 revolutionary soldiers across the ice and attack the British on Staten Island, but they had to turn back because of foul (wind and poor visibility) weather. Of course, this type of January was perhaps more typical back then, as the Little Ice Age (an extended period of cold in the northern hemisphere from 1400 to 1850 AD) was in full swing. <br /><br />Bitter cold gripped the state on January 26 of 1997. All counties reported subzero temperature readings in the morning, mostly ranging from -15°F to -30°F. Many northern communities reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. Tower reported -52°F and Embarrass reported -50°F. The daily maximum temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -15°F. <br /><br />Spring-like temperatures prevailed across western and southern Minnesota on January 26, 2002. Fifty climate stations representing 45 counties reported an afternoon temperature of 50°F or higher, topped by 62°F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) and 61°F at Windom (Cottonwood County). There was little snow on the ground in these areas of the state. <br /><br />A winter storm brought heavy snow to parts of the state over January 25-27 of 2004. Snow fell across a wide swath over the state, mostly bringing 8 to 19 inches to many areas. The northeast counties reported 20 to 30 inches of snow <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Cloudiness and fog will be decreasing over the weekend and skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with warmer than normal temperatures. Temperatures will warm even more next week with little chance for precipitation as we end January and start February. Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-72690921836972665552024-01-19T08:08:00.000-06:002024-01-19T08:08:08.746-06:00After a cold period, a reversal of temperature pattern<h2>After a cold period, a reversal of temperature pattern:</h2>Many places in Minnesota have seen temperatures average near 0°F or subzero since last Friday (January 12), certainly the coldest spell of weather so far this winter and the longest sustained period of below normal temperatures since last April. In fact here is the average air temperature since last Friday for a few selected communities, along with the departure from normal: <br /><br />International Falls, ave temp -6°F, -10°F below normal <br />St Cloud, ave temp 1°F, -12°F below normal <br />Brainerd, ave temp -2°F, -12°F below normal <br />MSP, ave temp 4°F, -12°F below normal <br />Rochester, ave temp 0°F, -14°F below normal <br />Duluth, ave temp -2°F, -13°F below normal. <br /><br />Many places have reported minimum temperatures this week of -20°F or colder. The morning of January 18th both Brimson and Tower reported -26°F as a minimum temperature. Despite the persistence of cold Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states only once during the past week. <br /><br />Noteworthy is that after this weekend, Minnesota will experience significantly above normal temperatures for the last 10 days of January. In addition, the outlook for February favors above normal temperatures for Minnesota, and that may persist through early spring. Given these outlooks it is highly likely that Minnesota will record the warmest meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) in state history, surpassing that of 1997-1998. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3> The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/67964531" target="_blank">BBC</a> features an interesting article about Frost Fairs that used to be hosted on the frozen river Thames in London occasionally during the harsh winters of the Little Ice Age (especially in the 17th and 18th Century). The ice was so thick on the Thames that carnivals were hosted with elephants on ice skates, food and drink booths, and bowling matches. <br /><br /> <br />A new study in the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2302480120" target="_blank">Proceedings of the National Academy of Science</a> finds that in many of the world’s arid subarid regions, where climate change models predicted increases in atmospheric water vapor (moisture), the opposite trend is appearing, as they are getting drier. This is puzzling to many scientists and may indicate a missing factor in some models regarding atmospheric dynamics or landscape feedback that promotes aridity. Obviously more study is needed to sort this out.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>I have often heard you say that Minnesota reports the coldest temperature in the nation a several times each year and on occasion lows as cold as -50 degrees F are reported. But how many climate stations in the state have really recorded a value of -50 degrees F or colder? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>A large number of communites and climate stations have seen temperatures of -50 degrees F or colder. At least 53 Minnesota stations, representing 22 of Minnesota's 87 counties have reported temperatures that cold. The list below shows the geographic distribution. <br /><br />Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) Grand Rapids (Itasca County) <br />International Falls (Koochiching County) Orr (St Louis County) <br />Saint Vincent (Kittson County) Hallock (Kittson County) <br />St Cloud (Sherburne County) Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) <br />Bagley (Clearwater County) Detroit Lakes (Becker County) <br />Little Fork (Koochiching County) Wright (Carlton County) <br />Pine River Dam (Crow Wing County) Brainerd (Crow Wing County) <br />Bemidji (Beltrami County) Brimson (St Louis County) <br />Fosston (Polk County) Crookston (Polk County) <br />Ada (Norman County) Winton (Lake County) <br />Mahnomen (Mahnomen County) Park Rapids (Hubbard County) <br />Roseau (Roseau County) Warroad (Roseau County) <br />Red Lake Falls (Red Lake County) Itasca State Park (Itasca County) <br />Red Lake Agency (Beltrami County) Leech Lake (Cass County) <br />Duluth (St Louis County) Big Falls (Koochiching County) <br />Floodwood (St Louis County) Sandy Lake Dam (Aitkin County) <br />Marcell Ranger Station (Itasca County) Tower (St Louis County) <br />Embarrass (St Louis County) Rush City (Chisago County) <br />Cook (St Louis County) Stephens Mine (Itasca County) <br />Cotton (St Louis County) Moose Lake (Carlton County) <br />Bigfork (Itasca County) Fort Ripley (Crow Wing County) <br />Mora (Kanabec County) Willow River (Pine County) <br />Thorhult (Beltrami County) Tamarac Refuge (Becker County) <br />Hibbing (St Louis County) Meadowlands (St Louis County) <br />Remer (Cass County) Babbitt (St Louis County) <br />Ely (Lake County) Kabetogama (St Louis County) <br />Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods County) <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for January 19th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for January 19th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily maximum temperature of -10 degrees F in 1970; lowest daily minimum temperature of -34 degrees F in 1970; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1908; record precipitation of 0.57 inches in 1988. There was a record 7.5 inches of snowfall also in 1988. <br /><br />Average dew point for January 19th is 4°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1932; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1977. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for January 19th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 1900. The state record low temperature for this date is -50 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) in 1996. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.03 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1982. The state snowfall record is 18.0 inches also at St James (Watonwan County) in 1988. <br /><h3>Past Weather: </h3>January 19 of 1900 brought March-like conditions to most of Minnesota with daytime temperatures in the 40s and 50s F. With very little snow cover the landscape heated up under bright sunny skies and it reached 61°F at Milan (Chippewa County). <br /><br />Arctic high pressure settled over the state on January 19, 1943 bringing morning low temperatures that ranged from -20°F to -40°F across Minnesota. Big Falls (Koochiching County) reported -45°F in the morning and only warmed up to -26°F in the afternoon. <br /><br />A slow moving winter storm delivered a mixture of precipitation over January 17-19 of 1996. Freezing rain and ice build-up produced widespread power outages in eastern Minnesota, while western counties were under a blizzard warning with winds up to 60 mph. Many schools and businesses were closed. Snowfall totals ranged from 8 to 18 inches in many areas and northeastern communities reported over 20 inches of snow. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Continued cold and breezy on Saturday, then warming to near normal temperatures on Sunday under partly sunny skies. A warming trend will begin on Monday with winds from the south. The warming will last all of next week and bring periodic chances for snow flurries or snow showers of limited duration. Possible mixture of snow and rain showers on Tuesday and Wednesday in southern Minnesota. Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-73948497877996409842024-01-12T11:24:00.000-06:002024-01-12T11:24:14.454-06:00Rare colder than normal temperatures return<h2 style="text-align: left;">Rare colder than normal temperatures return:</h2><p>Thursday, January 11th, brought many smiles and lifted spirits because it was the sunniest day since December 29th for many areas of the state. Through the first 10 days of January temperatures have been well above normal (warmest start to the month since 2007), but cloudiness has dominated the weather scene in Minnesota for the month so far, with most of the significant weather systems delivering precipitation remaining south of the state. The exception was the snowstorm that plagued portions of southwestern and southeastern Minnesota over January 7-9. Many observers in these areas of the state reported 4 to 7 inches of snowfall. Portions of Rock County reported over 11 inches of snowfall. The <a href="https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/heavy-snow-southwest-southeast-mn-jan-7-9-2024.html" target="_blank">DNR State Climatology Office</a> reported more details on the snowfall this week at their web site.<br /><br />January 11 brought more significant snowfalls to the north shore, especially from Two Harbors to Finland and Lutsen. Snowfall amounts ranged from 6 inches to 14 inches. Yet more snowfall is expected there throughout the weekend. <br /><br />Snow cover around the state ranges mostly between 1 inch and 4 inches, but this will enhance the cold temperatures projected for the coming weekend and early next week. Subzero morning lows may range from -5°F to -15°F, with Wind Chill conditions in the minus twenties and minus thirties at times. This forecasted colder than normal period, periods lasting 10 days (through January 20) will be the longest for most parts of Minnesota since last April. The last week of January is expected to see a return of above normal temperatures. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p> This week at the <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2023-historic-year-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters" target="_blank">NOAA climate.gov</a> web site is a review of the 28 weather and climate disasters that caused close to $93 billion in damages and loss. There is also an examination of the disturbing trend in such events.<br /><br />Jonathan Erdman of the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/forecast/regional/news/2024-01-11-dolphins-chiefs-coldest-nfl-wild-card-weekend-forecast" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> writes this week that at least two of the NFL Wild Card Football Playoff games may be significantly affected by the weather this weekend. The Miami Dolphins play the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday night in KC and will be playing in singled digits temperatures with subzero Wind Chill conditions. In these conditions is can be difficult to hold onto the ball. Then Sunday afternoon the Pittsburgh Steelers will be at the Buffalo Bills Highmark stadium where there may be some heavy snow showers and Wind Chill conditions near zero. So both cold and visibility may be issues for that football game. <br /><br />This week the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06794-y" target="_blank">Nature</a> features a fascinating article about the decline in average winter snowpack across the Northern Hemisphere that has been provoked by climate change. The analysis shows that much of the southwestern and northeastern USA landscape has seen sharp declines. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">You mentioned on the TPT Almanac program last week, that the upward trend in December mean temperature (statewide) was remarkable. What do the trends in mean temperature look like for other months of the year? <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4><p style="text-align: left;"><br />According to the NOAA Climate Data Center, Minnesota average monthly temperatures show the following trends over the most recent century (100 years of data): <br /><br />January +4.1°F <br />February +4.4°F <br />March 4.0°F <br />April +0.4°F <br />May +1.6°F <br />June +2.1°F <br />July +1.1°F <br />August +1.4°F <br />September +2.0°F <br />October +1.0°F <br />November +2.7°F <br />December +3.8°F <br /><br />Clearly for Minnesota the months of December, January, February, and March have warmed the most. This is also true for many mid-latitude landscapes in the Northern Hemisphere, including Europe and Asia. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for January 12th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for January 12th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1987; lowest daily maximum temperature of -13 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -31 degrees F in 1912; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1928; record precipitation of 0.70 inches in 1935. There was a record 8.7 inches of snowfall in 2000. <br /><br />Average dew point for January 12th is 6°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1932; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1977. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for January 12th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 58 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) and Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1987. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at Pine River Dam (Crow Wing County) in 1912. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at St James (Watonwan County) in 1988. The state snowfall record is 15.1 inches also at Cloquet (Carlton County) in 1972. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3><p style="text-align: left;"><br />The January 10-12 period is bookmarked in the Minnesota history documents as an anniversary for two of the worst blizzards to ever hit the state, those of 1888 and 1975. The storm of January 12, 1888 is well documented in David Laskin's book "The Children's Blizzard." Over 200 people, mostly children, lost their lives in that storm which mostly affected SE South Dakota, SW Minnesota, NE Nebraska, and NW Iowa. The storm rolled in during during the afternoon of what otherwise had been a relatively mild day with temperatures in the mid-30s F. Suddenly, <br /><br />the winds became strong, snowfall was intense and visibility was dramatically reduced. Children were dismissed from school early, but many never made it home. Temperatures as cold as -37 degrees F were measured the next morning as snow drifts from 10-12 ft dotted the landscape. The timing, sudden onset, dangerous wind chill conditions, and lack of visibility all contributed to this lethal blizzard. <br /><br />January 10-12, 1975 is remembered by many Minnesotans as the "Storm of the Century." The storm was well forecasted by the National Weather Service, but it was so mighty that it literally shut down the state. Hurricane-like low pressure (only 28.40 inches at Grand Portage) brought wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph in many places. Several counties received over 20 inches of snowfall from this storm. Roads and airports were closed, and 168 passengers were stranded on a stalled train near Willmar, as wind chill conditions were too dangerous for them to walk and seek other shelter. The storm brought 35 deaths, while the American Red Cross provided food and shelter to over 17,000 stranded motorists. <br /><br />By far the coldest January 12th in state history was in 1912 when morning low temperatures ranged from -20°F to -50°F across Minnesota. At least 40 climate stations reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Campbell (Wilkin County) only managed to reach -27°F. <br /><br />The warmest January 12th was in 1987. Most climate stations reported afternoon temperatures in the 40s F with little or no snow on the ground. Twenty Minnesota counties reported a high temperature of 50°F or greater. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><p style="text-align: left;"><br /> Patchy blowing snow on Saturday and Sunday with dangerous Wind Chill conditions in some places. In northeastern Minnesota, significant snowfalls (several inches) will continue throughout the weekend and on Monday. Many areas will see subzero overnight lows and even subzero high temperatures. Monday through Wednesday will continue cold and breezy, with some moderation in temperature towards the end of next week. </p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-1712138632872909662024-01-05T14:21:00.008-06:002024-01-05T14:21:52.124-06:002023 climate statistics and 2024 start:<h2>2023 climate statistics and 2024 start:</h2><br />The warmest December in state history, coupled with the 2nd warmest ever November-December combination helped make the year 2023 the 8th warmest in Minnesota history (back to 1895). Here is the listing of the top 8 warmest years, with the statewide mean temperature: <br /><br />1987 45.3°F <br />2012 45.2°F <br />1931 45.0°F <br />1998 44.9°F <br />2016 44.6°F <br />2006 44.4°F <br />2021 44.3°F <br />2023 44.2°F <br /><br />The year ended with the wettest December in state history (statewide average precipitation of 2.35 inches compared to a normal of 1.00 inches), but this did not make up for the rainfall deficits that brought drought to the state earlier in 2023. The statewide average precipitation for 2023 was 25.72 inches, about 1.5 inches below normal. Some long-term climate stations reported one of their driest years of record, including: <br /><br />Albert Lea in Freeborn County (22.30 inches), 9th driest <br />Preston in Fillmore County (18.07 inches) 9th driest <br />Pipestone in Pipestone County (18.07 inches) 5th driest <br />Spring Valley in Fillmore County (18,95 inches) driest ever <br /><br />After a record-setting month of December (in both temperature and precipitation), January has begun cooler, but still warmer than normal. Through the first few days of the month most climate observers are reporting temperatures that are 8°F to 12°F above normal. January has been drier than normal too, with little snow on the ground in most places. According to the DNR-State Climatology Office most places around the state report no snow cover or less than 1 inch of snow cover. <br /><br />Most outlook models are favoring closer to normal temperatures for January, with more frequent chances for snowfall. Because of a strong El Nino episode, both the NOAA Climate Prediction Center models and the European climate models favor a warmer than normal February and March for Minnesota, so I would not be surprised by an early spring. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3> This week at the <a href="https://research.noaa.gov/2023/12/21/what-weve-learned-about-our-climate-since-2015/" target="_blank">NOAA climate.gov</a> web site there is a featured article about climate anomalies and impact since 2015 (the year of COP25 and the Paris Agreement to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases more aggressively). It is revealing to find that major climate impacts have continued to increase in frequency and impact, while most countries have struggled to reduce emissions at an accelerated pace. <br /><br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67880743" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported that record-setting snows and cold caused a great deal of travel difficulty in parts of Sweden, Finland, and Norway this week. Many motorists were stranded by heavy snows and had to be rescued. In some parts of northern Sweden, the temperature fell to -45°F or colder. <br /><br />A recent paper in the journal <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67880743https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67880743" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a> documents the necessity of public behaviour change in order to mitigate climate change. The authors argue that inequality, in the form of income, political influence, and access to low-carbon options inhibits certain groups of people from behavior change that would help fight climate change. The authors suggest that better urban planning and more strategic policymaking with respect to reducing carbon footprints would be ways to mitigate these inequalities. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>With all the stories about unsafe ice on area lakes, we wondered how deeply the soils are frozen now. Seems like most of the December rainfall went into the soil. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>Yes, indeed the December rainfalls were good for soil moisture recharge, as the warm weather kept them from freezing up. The recent turn to cooler temperatures has caused some soils in western and northern areas of the state to freeze to a depth of 4 inches or so. However, many eastern and southern counties still have unfrozen soils. <br /><br /><h4>Twin Cities Almanac for January 5th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for January 5th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1885; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum temperature of -28 degrees F in 1924; highest daily minimum temperature of 33 degrees F in 1946; record precipitation of 0.63 inches in 1932. There was a record 4.7 inches of snowfall in 1994. <br /><br />Average dew point for January 5th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1915; and the minimum dew point on this date is -38 degrees F in 1924. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for January 5th:</h4> The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -44 degrees F at Mora (Kanabec County) in 1988 and at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2018.. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.05 inches at Wheation (Traverse County) in 1997. The state snowfall record is 24.0 inches also at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1997. <br /><br /><h3>Past Weather: </h3><p>With little snow on the ground, March-like temperatures prevailed across much of Minnesota on January 5 of 1902. Many communities reported afternoon high temperatures in the 40s F. After a morning low of just 4°F, Montevideo reached an afternoon temperature of 43°F. <br /><br />Record-setting cold temperatures had a grip on the state for January 5 of 1912. Most areas reported subzero temperatures ranging from -25°F to -39°F. Four northern communities reported morning lows of -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Thief River Falls only reached -28°F. <br /><br />Over January 4-5 in 1997 a winter storm brought a mixture of rain and snow to much of Minnesota. Some areas reported rainfall amounts of a half inch or more, while travel in western counties was hampered by freezing rain. Many northern areas received from 10 to 20 inches of snowfall. Wheaton and Wadena reported over 2 feet of snow and some local area schools had to close on Monday, following the snowy weekend. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><p>Continued mostly cloudy skies and warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend. There will be a chance for snow on Saturday, and again Monday into Tuesday. More snow may arrive later on Wednesday and extend into Thursday, this time with falling temperatures that are closer to normal. By next weekend temperatures will be colder than normal with some subzero morning lows in the north and single digit lows in the south.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-86786363012426841062023-12-29T09:09:00.006-06:002023-12-29T09:09:33.276-06:00The Remarkable Climate of December 2023:<h2 style="text-align: left;"> The Remarkable Climate of December 2023:</h2>December of 2023 will forever standout in Minnesota climate history, even if its’ climate signature is only a precursor for what climate change has in store for us. In both temperature and precipitation measurements this December is a singularity in our state’s climate history. <br /><br />The average statewide mean temperature for the month will be around 29.5°F, that is well beyond the previous warmest December (24.8°F in 2015). Most climate stations will report a mean monthly temperature that is 10°F to 14°F above normal. Many areas of the state reported several days with 50°F or higher temperatures, and several reported 60°F or greater. The month brought the warmest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in state history in terms of both maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as record high dew points in the 50s F. Within the statewide climate observing network, there were over 170 daily record high maximum temperature records and over 240 daily high minimum temperature records set. It is with great certainty that scientists can attribute the warm temperature signal of December to a strong El Nino episode, climate change, and the absence of snow cover. <br /><br />This month was also the wettest December in state history with a statewide average over 2.30 inches (surpassing the statewide average of 2.06 inches in 1968). Most of the precipitation fell as rain, and in many cases heavy rain. Within the statewide climate observing network over 50 daily precipitation (rainfall) records were set, and at least 25 climate stations set a new record for greatest total monthly precipitation for December. Bear in mind that average precipitation for December for most Minnesota communities is less than 1 inch. Most places reported over 2 inches this month, while several reported over 3 inches. Litchfield, Brainerd, and Wheaton reported almost 4 inches. <br /><br />The combination of warm temperatures and warm rainfalls thawed many soils and allowed for soil moisture recharge, which was needed in many areas following months of drought. There will still be some carryover drought in portions of the state for 2024. The warm month also will mean that the year 2023 is likely to rank among the top 10 warmest in history on a statewide basis. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Weather and Climate Headlines of 2023: </h2> Pete Boulay of the <a href="https://climateapps.dnr.state.mn.us/index.htm" target="_blank">MN State Climatology Office</a> is putting together his annual list of the top weather and climate stories for the year. Please look for this to appear on their web site in the coming days.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for December 29th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for December 29th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of -4 degrees F in 1909; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 0.80 inches in 1972. There was also a record 4.4 inches of snowfall also in 1889. <br /><br />Average dew point for December 29th is 12°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 40°F in 1936; and the minimum dew point on this date is -24 degrees F in 1976. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for December 29th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 61 degrees F at Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1999. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1917. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.55 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) in 1982. The state snowfall record is 16.0 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) also in 1982. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3><br />The coldest December 29 occurred in 1917. With plenty of snow on the ground an Arctic air mass brought record-setting low temperatures to many areas of the state. Most places reported subzero temperatures, ranging from -20°F to -40°F. The afternoon high at Thief River Falls only reached -19°F. <br /><br />December 29 in 1999 was the warmest in state history. With little or no snow on the ground, many climate observers reported afternoon temperatures in the 50s F. After a morning low of just 15°F at Montevideo, the temperature rose to 61°F by mid afternoon. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br />Chance of light snow on Saturday, otherwise dry through the next week. Temperatures will continue to be mostly about normal, but by only 5°F to 10°F degrees, instead of the recording-setting warmth of December.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-45546931182182363332023-12-22T10:50:00.000-06:002023-12-22T10:50:07.004-06:00Looks like warmest December in state history<h2>Looks like warmest December in state history:</h2>It appears that the persistent above normal temperatures, expected to last through mid-January of 2024, will produce the warmest December in history for most parts of Minnesota. Looking at long-term climate stations in Minnesota, several are already reporting the warmest December in their record keeping. These include places like St Cloud, Morris, Crookston, Brainerd, and International Falls. At several other locations the expected warmth over the next 10 days may push them to set a record for warmest December. Some of those locations pushing the record for warmest December include: <br />MSP and Duluth are having the warmest December since 1877, and may break that record. <br />Hibbing and Pipestone are having the warmest December since 1939, and may break that record, <br />Rochester and Albert Lea are having the warmest December since 1931, and may break that record. <br /><br />We may even see more climate stations report temperatures of 50°F or greater this weekend. Several climate stations have reported at least three days this month with afternoon temperatures of 50°F or higher, and a number have seen 60°F. This weekend could bring at least one or two more such days, but there is also a highly probability for rain with the warm temperatures, especially on Sunday. Also expect record high dew points over the weekend. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-67723758" target="_blank">BBC</a> reports this week on major flooding in northern Australia this week where extreme weather driven by ex-tropical cyclone Jasper has dumped a year's worth of rain on parts of Queensland. In some areas total rainfall this week surpassed 60 inches, and river flooding was widespread. Fortunately, river levels were dropping in recent days.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/weather/news/2023-12-14-weather-records-broken-2023" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> this week features a story about the top 10 weather extremes in the USA during 2023, including record-setting rains in Fort Lauderdale and Death Valley, along with recording setting heat in Phoenix and Chicago. Some of these records are astonishing.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>I have already played golf on two days this month when the afternoon temperatures reached 50°F. Me and my golf buddies were wondering what is the record number of days with 50°F or higher for the month of December? <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>Not sure of the location you are talking about here. The record for the Twin Cities is 7 days during December of 1939. The all-time statewide record is 13 days at Canby (Yellow Medicine County), Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County), and Beardsley (Big Stone County) also in December of 1939. Minnesota did not have as many golf courses to be open back then. BTW in December of 1939 there was little or not snow on the ground through the first 3 weeks, then it turned colder than normal for the4 last 10 days with some snow and subzero temperatures. 1939 was not an El Nino year. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for December 22nd: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 13 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for December 22nd: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily maximum temperature of -12 degrees F in 1983; lowest daily minimum temperature of -20 degrees F in 1983; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 1877; record precipitation of 0.52 inches in 1968. There was also a record 7.6 inches of snowfall also in 1968. <br /><br />Average dew point for December 22nd is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 1941; and the minimum dew point on this date is -32 degrees F in 1983. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for December 22nd:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1899. The state record low temperature for this date is -44 degrees F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1963. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.30 inches at Glencoe (McLeod County) in 1920. The state snowfall record is 16.0 inches at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) in 1968. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>December 22 of 1899 brought a very mild day to Minnesota with many communities reporting an afternoon high temperature between 45°F and 55°F. There was little snow on the ground and some railroad employees were observed working in shirt sleeves. <br /><br />A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snows to Minnesota over December 22-23 in 1968. Many climate stations reported record snowfalls ranging from 8 to 16 inches. Fortunately, most schools were already on break for the holidays. <br /><br />During the coldest month of December in state history the 22nd brought record-setting morning low temperatures to many places in Minnesota. Most climate station reported a morning temperature of -20°F and several places were colder than -30°F with Wind Chill readings in the minus 40s and minus 50s F. The afternoon high temperature at Alexandria only reached -18°F. <br /><br /><h2>Outlook: </h2>Continued very mild temperatures, near record high values, into the weekend with increased cloudiness and chances for rain by Saturday night. Rain/snow mix will prevail through Sunday and into Monday in northern areas, while rain will continue on Sunday and into Monday in the southern half of Minnesota. Daily temperatures will be above normal all week. There will be slight to moderate chances for rain or snow Tuesday and Wednesday, then drier towards the end of the week. Though not record-setting, temperatures will remain above normal. <span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><br /></span>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-37713071205810112812023-12-15T10:22:00.002-06:002023-12-15T10:22:58.411-06:00December Warmth Continues<h2>December Warmth Continues:</h2>The first half of the month has been dominated by persistent warmer than normal weather. Through the first two weeks of December climate stations are reporting an average temperature that ranges from 8°F to 12°F above normal. On a statewide basis back to 1895 here are the top five warmest first two weeks of December: <br /><br />1913 and 1939 statewide average temperature 33.1°F <br />2015 statewide average temperature 32.2°F <br />1999 statewide average temperature 30.1°F <br /><b>2023 statewide average temperature 28.4°F </b><br />2001 statewide average temperature 28.0°F <br /><br />It is interesting to note that for these Decembers listed above there was little snow or no snow cover, or only intermittent snow cover present throughout the month. It is also interesting to note that El Nino was in play in only two of these years, 2015 and 2023. <br /><br />So far this month within the state climate network over 80 high maximum temperature records have been set, and over 40 high daily minimum temperature records have been set. As recently as Thursday, December 14 new record high temperatures were reported from many areas, including: <br /><br />50°F at Orr, and Park Rapids <br />52°F at International Falls and Crane Lake <br />54°F at New Ulm and Fergus Falls <br />55°F at Hutchinson and Wheaton <br />56°F at Granite Falls <br />57°F at Madison <br /><br />Moderate to Severe Drought area in the state remained fixed at 44 percent heading into the second half of December and is likely to remain unchanged. All of the NOAA CPC outlook models suggest a warmer and drier than normal pattern will prevail throughout the balance of the month. <br /><br /><h2>Nocturnal Character of Winter Storms </h2>Frequencies of hourly precipitation from the Twin Cities climate records show some interesting daily patterns with respect to the onset of winter storms. Patterns in the hourly frequencies of precipitation do vary by month. In the winter months, December through February, the afternoon hours from noon to 4 pm show the lowest relative frequency of measured precipitation. Overnight frequencies of hourly precipitation are relatively higher, especially from 1 am to 6 am. This could be due to the relationship between temperature and the saturation of the air. Low temperatures usually occur during these hours and probably remain closer to the dew point temperature, preserving the structure and continuity of precipitation, whether droplets, sleet or snow crystals. The other feature of winter storm systems to remember is that they are usually large and take some time to move across the area. Precipitation may last for several hours and since most of our 24-hour calendar day is in darkness during the winter, we associate the storminess with the night. <br /><br /><h3>Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>The <a href=" https://www.bbc.com/weather/av/67659384" target="_blank">BBC</a> reports this week that globally the year 2023 will be the warmest on record for the measurement period since 1850. They also suggest that the year 2024 may be even hotter and will certainly continue the upward trend in global temperature.<br /><br />A recent study from University of California Santa Barbara researchers documents the improved thermoregulation of new adaptive materials that can be used for roof tiles. These materials adapt to cool or warm condition to maximize energy efficiency for either heating or cooling buildings. They do so automatically and passively (without the use of electricity). Further study is needed to see how viable the manufacturing of such materials would be economically speaking. You can read more about this in the journal <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666998623003046?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">Device</a>.<br /><br />This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/affordable-robots-measure-soil-respiration" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features an interesting article about a mobile, cost-effective technology used to measure carbon dioxide flux from soils. Measurement show a strong relationship between carbon dioxide flux and soil temperature and moisture. Soil disturbance by grazing animals also has a measurable impact. The paper presents a case for more widespread use of this measurement system in different environments with variable soils.<br /><h4>MPR listener question: </h4>We understand that there are about 100 years of climate records for Austin, MN. We have recorded only a trace of snowfall so far this month here at Austin. Is this unique in our climate record? If not, how many times have we had a snowless month of December? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>Yes, over the past 90 years or so, there have been only 4 Decembers without any snowfall or only a trace of snow reported from your community. Those years were 1943, 1962, 1965, and 2006. You are not alone in reporting only a trace of snowfall this month. Many other communities have reported the same. Your long-term average December snowfall is about 9.2 inches. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for December 15th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 15 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for December 15th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 58 degrees F in 2021; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of -21 degrees F in 1901; highest daily minimum temperature of 39 degrees F in 2021; record precipitation of 0.71 inches in 1902. There was also a record 7.0 inches of snowfall also in 1902. <br /><br />Average dew point for December 15th is 10°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 49°F in 2014; and the minimum dew point on this date is -22 degrees F in 1963. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for December 15th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Kinbrae (Nobles County) in 1891. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Pokegam Dam (Itasca County) in 1901. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.25 inches at Grand Rapids (Itasca County) in 1893. The state snowfall record is 14.6 inches at Rockford (Wright County) in 1996. <br /><h3>Past Weather: </h3><br />In the years prior to statehood (1858) weather records across Minnesota are rather sparse. But we do know from the Ft Snelling readings that December of 1855 was no picnic. Well, actually maybe you could have had a picnic during the first days of the month as temperatures reached the mid 40s F. But following that mild spell a series of arctic fronts descended across the region bringing measurable snowfalls on nine days and an especially heavy snow at mid-month. Friday and Saturday, December 15th and 16th brought snow "with flakes as big as a featherbed" totaling 8 to 12 inches around the St Paul area. Sleighing was said to be excellent as total snowfall amounted to 22 inches for the month. The fresh snow cover and arctic air produced one of the coldest Christmas Eves in Minnesota history with a reading of -33 degrees F at Ft Snelling, -36 degrees F at St Paul, and -38 degrees F elsewhere in southern portions of the state. So after a teasing, mild start what a bitter month it turned out to be. <br /><br />An Arctic air mass gripped the state on December 15 of 1901 and many low temperature records were set. Morning lows ranged from -20°F to -40°F across the state. The high temperature at Pine River reached only -12°F. <br /><br />Many communities in the state reported afternoon high temperatures in the 50s F on December 15 of 1998. Some golf courses were open road repair crews were seen working in shirt sleeves. The high at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) reached 60°F. <br /><br />A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snowfalls to central and southern Minnesota over December 14-15 of 1996. Many areas reported 12 to 15 inches. Minneota in Lyon County reported 20 inches. <br /><br /><h2>Outlook: </h2>Mild temperatures continue into the weekend with a chance for rain in some areas on Saturday morning, and mixed precipitation (rain/snow) up north. Breezy and cooler on Monday, but then warming up to above normal temperatures again for next Tuesday through Friday, and mostly dry throughout.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-47574172689502941832023-12-08T08:56:00.004-06:002023-12-08T08:56:31.396-06:00Warmer, Dry Start to December May Persist<h2 style="text-align: left;">Warm, Dry Start to December May Persist:</h2><p><br />Warm and dry are the descriptors for the first week of December. Most observers report an average temperature for the first week of the month that ranges from 6°F to 12°F above normal. This follows a recent December climate trend which shows that 7 of the most recent 9 Decembers have been warmer than normal, and 21 of the past 30 have been warmer than normal (including 3 of the 4 warmest months of December in state history, 1997, 2006 and 2015). <br /><br />Within the state climate station network some record high temperatures were reported this week: For December 5th: <br />48°F at Alexandria (Douglas County) <br />50°F at Georgetown (Clay County) <br /><br />For December 6th: <br />46°F at Long Prairie (Todd County) <br />50°F at Wells (Faribault County) <br />55°F at Lamberston (Redwood County) <br /><br />For December 7th: <br />46°F at International Falls (Koochiching County) <br />53°F at St Cloud (Stearns County) <br />57°F at Crookston (Polk County) <br />59°F at Moorhead (Clay County) <br />61°F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) and at Windom (Cottonwood County) <br />63°F at Tracy (Lyon County) <br />64°F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) <br />65°F at Marshall (Lyon County) <br />69°F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) <br /><br />The reading at Canby tied a statewide record high temperature for the date. <br /><br />Most observers reported less than an tenth of an inch of precipitation during the first week of the month, and many reported only a trace. In addition, little snowfall was reported most places, less than an inch in most places, which the warm temperatures melted. <br /><br />The warmth and absence of snowfall motivated interest in December golf, and many golf courses were open for business this week in the southern half of Minnesota. This is not especially unusual in that golf course were also open the first week of December in 1990, 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2012. <br /><br />All of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor a continuation of warmer and drier than normal weather at least through the third week of the month. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p>The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65754296" target="_blank">BBC</a> news provides a synopsis of how the COP28 meetings in Dubai are going this week. The assessments of progress by individual countries in meeting their reduction goals for GHG emissions is not good. Most are falling short of mitigation efforts that would meet their goals. <br /><br />A recent paper in the journal <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177" target="_blank">Science</a> depicts the Earth’s atmospheric carbon dioxide content back 66 million years using geological proxy evidence to reconstruct atmospheric composition. The study shows that the current global average of 419 ppm is likely the highest level in the most recent 14 million years. It is estimated that global mean temperature 50 million years before present was about 22°F higher than today and that carbon dioxide concentration was about 500 ppm greater than today. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>Wondering for the Twin Cities Area how often has there been no snow cover on Christmas Day in the last 100 years or so? <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>Over the past 100 years, there have been 27 years when Christmas Day had no snow cover or only a trace of snow. More recently over the past 30 years only the following reported no snow cover or only a trace of snow on December 25th: <br />1997 <br />2002 <br />2006 <br />2011 <br />2014 <br />2015 <br />2018 <br />2021 <br /><br />I would not give up on the notion of a White Christmas Day yet. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for December 8th:</h4><p> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for December 8th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of -6 degrees F in 1927; lowest daily minimum temperature of -22 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1907; record precipitation of 0.44 inches in 1963. There was also a record 7.1 inches of snowfall in 1995. <br /><br />Average dew point for December 8th is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 46°F in 1946; and the minimum dew point on this date is -20 degrees F in 1978. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for December 8th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 1913. The state record low temperature for this date is -39 degrees F at Celina 2E (St Louis County) in 2013. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.02 inches at Babbitt (St Louis County) in 1924. The state snowfall record is 14.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1969. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Words of the Week: Mustard Winds</h4><p style="text-align: left;">The English have several interesting expressions for weather conditions, and this is one of them. When we have a cold front or cold wave move through the Midwest, our meteorologists talk about the windchill, but also sometimes refer to the wind as a "biting wind", a "penetrating wind", or a "bitter wind." The English will sometimes refer to a wind that brings on severe windchill conditions as a "mustard wind." This is most commonly a cold and damp northeasterly wind off the North Sea. The penetrating wind we had earlier in the week when windchills fell to -30 and -40 F, was actually a very dry wind as dewpoints fell into the minus teens, indicating little water vapor in the air. <br /><br />In fact, mustard used as a adjective generally has a negative connotation: mustard gas was an irritating and blistering gas used in WWI; mustard oil has a very unpleasant odour; mustard beetle is a destructive insect pest; mustard plaster or mustard paper is a counter-irritant used in medicine; and anybody who has done laundry knows that a mustard stain is one of the most difficult to remove (just look at my tie collection!). <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">A major winter storm brought mixed precipitation to Minnesota on December 8, 1963. Starting as rain and then changing over into snow, the storm brought 5 to 10 inches of snowfall.to many areas with a water content that ranged between 1.0 and 1.5 inches. <br /><br />Frigid, record-setting low temperatures spread across Minnesota on December 8 of 1976. Most areas of the state reported morning lows ranging from -10°F to -30°F. The afternoon high temperature at International Falls only reached -8°F. <br /><br />December 8 of 1990 brought afternoon temperatures of 50°F or greater to 39 Minnesota counties. Portions of western Minnesota reached the 60s F and some citizens took their lunch hour outside to have a picnic. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">It will become breezy and cooler over the weekend with a chance for snow on Saturday and Saturday night. Accumulations will be light. Continued cool on Sunday. Then another warming trend will start on Monday and will bring mostly warmer than normal temperatures next week, as daytime highs in the 40s F will return to many areas of the state. Chance for precipitation again by next Friday.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-35054659051132607122023-12-01T11:39:00.002-06:002023-12-01T11:39:53.459-06:00Climate Summary for November<h2>Climate Summary for November:</h2>Warm and dry describe the climate for Minnesota during this November. The statewide average temperature for the month (nearly 33.5°F) falls within the warmest 15 Novembers in history (back to 1895), while the statewide average precipitation for the month (around 0.38 inches) falls within the driest 12 Novembers historically. <br /><br />Approximately two-thirds of the days were warmer than normal. Within the Minnesota climate station network average November temperatures ranged from 2°F to 5°F above normal, with larger departures in northern sections of the state. Statewide extremes included 70°F at Hastings Dam (Dakota County) on November 16th, and -11°F at Celina (St Louis County) on November 28th. During the warm spells of weather at mid-month 35 daily maximum temperature records were tied or set, including 69°F at MSP on the 16th. In addition, 10 warm daily minimum temperature records were tied or set. Minnesota reported the lowest temperature in the 48 contiguous states only once during November. The coldest Wind Chill readings of the month were -16°F at Hallock (Kittson County) on the 27th and at Roseau (Roseau County) on the 28th. <br /><br />November precipitation was less than normal across the entire state. Only northeastern counties reported some monthly totals between 1 inch and 1.80 inches. Many climate stations reported one of their driest months of November in history, with numerous reports of less than a tenth of an inch for the month. Some examples: <br /><br />Milan (Chippewa County) 0.02 inches, 3rd driest November in history <br />Lamberton (Redwood County) 0.04 inches, 2nd driest November in history <br />Benson (Swift County) 0.05 inches, 3rd driest November in history <br />Rochester (Olmsted County) 0.11 inches, 4th driest November in history <br />Lake City (Wabasha County) 0.02 inches, 2nd driest November in history <br />St Cloud (Stearns County) 0.08 inches, 4th driest November in history <br />MSP (Hennepin County) 0.04 inches, 2nd driest November in history <br /><br />There were a number of climate stations (too many to list) that reported their driest November. Some examples include: <br />Stillwater (Washington County) 0.02 inches tied with 1912 <br />Pipestone (Pipestone County) 0 precipitation, tied with 1914 <br />Spring Valley (Fillmore County) Trace of precipitation <br />Collegeville (Stearns County) Trace of precipitation <br />Luverne (Rock County) 0 precipitation <br /><br />Snowfall too was below normal during November, with many climate stations reporting less than one inch. Some areas of north-central and northeastern Minnesota reported 3 to 7 inches for the month, but that is still below normal. <br /><br />With all this dryness in November, following a generally wetter than normal September and October, the Drought Situation in Minnesota remained mostly stagnant, or grew marginally. The cold snap of the last week has provoked some soils to begin freezing up, which brings an end to the autumn soil moisture recharge season. <br /><br />A final note on November’s climate. It lived up to its reputation for windiness. Many climate stations reported wind gusts of 30 mph or greater on over a third of the days. Also, wind gusts of 40 mph and even 50 mph were reported from several areas of the state. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>In this week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/current-efforts-not-enough-to-keep-warming-under-1-5c" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> there is a review of a recent report from the United Nations Environment Programme that is quite disturbing. The report specifies that current international efforts and targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases is insufficient to keep global temperature from rising above 1.5°F above preindustrial times. In fact it is likely that global temperatures will continue to rise to at least 2.9°F above preindustrial times. The report emphasizes that further, more accelerated commitments on reducing GHG emissions are needed.<br /><br />While Minnesota reported a warmer than normal month of November, the month was closing out this week with some of the coldest November weather in 13 years across the United Kingdom. According to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-67564025" target="_blank">BBC</a> it was as cold as 18°F in the Scottish Highlands and just 19°F in Cumbria this week. Freezing fog blanketed the Midlands while snow fell across Scotland and East England.<br /><br />This week, Jonathan Erdman of the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/winter/news/2022-11-16-lake-effect-snow-records-great-lakes" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> writes a historical perspective on the famous lake-effect snows of the Great Lakes. There have been incredible snow seasons around the Great Lakes, with measured seasonal snowfalls over 300 inches. Further snowfall rates from lake-effect snow storms can rival the most extreme rates of snowfall measured in the Rocky Mountains.<br /><h4>MPR listener question: </h4>Here at the Howling Dog Saloon in Luverne we have gone the entire month of November without any precipitation? Whew! Do you know what the longest period without precipitation is for our community? Some of us think it must be more than 40 days. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>Your guess was a pretty good one. The longest period without precipitation in Luverne was 44 days, from December 26 of 1899 to February 7 of 1900. For the month of November you set a record this year beating the 27 consecutive dry November days of 1962. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for December 1st: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 34 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 21 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for December 1st: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1998; lowest daily maximum temperature of 1 degrees F in 1919; lowest daily minimum temperature of -15 degrees F in 1893; highest daily minimum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1962; record precipitation of 0.83 inches in 1985. There was also a record 8.4 inches of snowfall in 1985. <br /><br />Average dew point for December 1st is 18°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 49°F in 1982; and the minimum dew point on this date is -17 degrees F in 1930. <br /><h4>All-time state records for December 1st:</h4> The state record high temperature for this date is 70 degrees F at Chaska (Carver County) in 1998. The state record low temperature for this date is -51 degrees F at Pokagama (Itasca County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.12 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1985. The state snowfall record is 16.0 inches at Winona (Winona County) also in 1985. <br /><h3>Past Weather: </h3>The coldest December 1st in state history was in 1896 when many climate stations set record lows. Virtually all of the state saw subzero morning low temperatures with readings of -30°F or colder common in northern Minnesota. Pokegama Ddam reported -51°F. The afternoon high at Crookston reached -16°F. <br /><br />December 1-2 in 1985 brought a winter storm and heavy snow to Minnesota. Many areas of the state reported 8 to 14 inches of snowfall, with up to 19 inches in some places. Many schools were closed on Monday the 2nd. <br /><br />December 1 of 1998 brought record-setting warm temperatures to the state under sunny skies. There was no snow on the ground and many southern and central counties basked in afternoon temperatures in the 60s F and golf courses did a flourishing business in the afternoon. After starting the morning at 27°F Chaska warmed up to 70°F by the afternoon. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2>Continued warmer than normal temperatures into the weekend and next week with temperatures running several degrees above normal. Slight chance for snow flurries later on Saturday and into Sunday for portions of southern Minnesota, and chances for snow flurries in the north on Monday night and Wednesday. Wednesday through Friday of next week will bring the warmest temperatures.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-62094020580449961932023-11-24T13:29:00.005-06:002023-11-24T13:29:35.443-06:00Comments on the month of November<p> </p><h2 style="text-align: left;">A WISH FOR A HAPPY, SAFE, AND COMFORTABLE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND FOR MINNESOTA WEATHERTALK READERS</h2><h3>(what follows is an abbreviated version of the blog for the holiday)</h3><h2 style="text-align: left;">Comments on the Month of November:</h2>It appears that this November will wrap up with colder than normal temperatures and a little snow during the last week of the month. This is unlikely to offset the warm and dry trends established during the first three weeks of the month. For the month today, average temperatures are running from 4°F to 7°F above normal and statewide average total precipitation is only between 3 tenths and 4 tenths of an inch. It is probable that this November will end up among the 25 warmest historically, as well as among the 25 driest historically. In fact, for some southern counties, it could end up among the driest 10 in history. I will report more detail in next week’s blog. <br /><br />Prairie and forest fires were common occurrences during the 19th Century in Minnesota. Soldiers at old Ft Snelling routinely noted them in daily weather observations. What is interesting is that for most of the century, November was a significant month for fires. In fact, only April and October show higher frequencies of fires than November. Some historians have suggested that indigenous American hunters used to start fires in November to flush game out into the open. <br /><br />A study by former state climatologist Earl Kuehnast showed that the average date for the first 1- inch snow cover ranges from October 30 at Crane Lake, Minnesota (northern St Louis County) to as late as December 1st down at Albert Lea, Minnesota. So for most places in Minnesota the first 1-inch snow cover falls somewhere in November historically. The average duration of snow cover during the winter varies considerably as well, ranging from 85 days in southwestern Minnesota to over 160 days in the Arrowhead region, but these numbers have been shrinking with climate change.<br /><br /><h4>Twin Cities Almanac for November 24th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for November 24th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 59 degrees F in 2011; lowest daily maximum temperature of 10 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily minimum temperature of -10 degrees F in 1893; highest daily minimum temperature of 43 degrees F in 2001; record precipitation of 1.06 inches in 2001. There was a record 1.7 inches of snowfall in 1977. <br /><br />Average dew point for November 24th is 18°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 52°F in 2001; and the minimum dew point on this date is -13 degrees F in 2005. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for November 24th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 68 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1984. The state record low temperature for this date is -31 degrees F at Pokegam Dam (Itasca County) in 1898. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.38 inches at Vesta (Redwood County) in 2001. The state snowfall record is 16.0 inches at Tower (St Louis County) in 1983. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>Biter cold gripped the state on the morning of November 24 in 1898. Many record low temperatures were measured and most of the state reported subzero readings. Minus teens and minus twenties were reported in most places. The afternoon high at International Falls was just -3°F. <br /><br />November 22-24 of 1983 saw a winter storm bring heavy snowfall to Minnesota. Many observers reported between 8 and 18 inches of snowfall, with huge drifts. Portions of northeastern Minnesota reported over 20 inches of snowfall. <br /><br />Exactly a year after one of the biggest ever November snowfalls, November 24 of 1984 brought record-setting high temperatures. The majority of Minnesota climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures in the 50s F, and it reached 60°F or greater in seven western counties. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Continuing colder than normal throughout the weekend with increasing cloudiness late Saturday and into Sunday, as winds increase as well. Chances for snow late Saturday and through Sunday, then mostly cold and dry for Monday through Wednesday. A warming trend will start on Thursday and continue into next weekend.<br />Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-32242620341794447682023-11-17T14:14:00.002-06:002023-11-17T14:14:21.689-06:00Warmth with High Winds<h2 style="text-align: left;">Warmth with High Winds:</h2><p>Last week I wrote about and talked about November’s warm temperatures. It has indeed been a very warm November so far. Much of this week daily temperatures were ranging from 12 to 20 degrees above normal, though few records were set. On Thursday, November 16 some daily record high maximum temperatures were reported, including: <br /><br />69°F at MSP <br /><br />65°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) <br /><br />57°F at Kabetogama (St Louis County) <br /><br />With these record-setting maximum temperatures on Thursday were strong winds from the south, as was the case with most of the warm days so far this month. At least 20 climate stations reported wind gusts of 40 mph or greater on November 16th, and we should remember that historically November is the 2nd windiest month on the Minnesota calendar, trailing only April. In fact here is a comparison for several Minnesota locations of the number of days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater for November so far, with the total number of such days that occurred last April (one of the windiest April months in history): <br /><br />Location November 1-16 April 1-30 <br /><br />MSP 9 days 26 days <br /><br />Rochester 7 days 22 days <br /><br />Redwood Falls 8 days 22 days <br /><br />Brainerd 9 days 19 days <br /><br />Duluth 9 days 14 days <br /><br />Granite Falls 6 days 14 days <br /><br />Saint Cloud 5 days 12 days <br /><br />Looking at the outlook models for the remainder of the month, most Minnesota climate stations will probably see at least 3 or 4 more days with wind gusts over 30 mph, but they will also be associated with colder temperatures. <br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">New NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlooks:</h2><p>The new outlooks from NOAA CPC favor cooler than normal temperatures across Minnesota after this weekend and continuing through the balance of the month. They also suggest a warm-up to above normal temperatures beginning in early December and last through most of the month. For precipitation the outlooks all favor near normal and drier than normal conditions to prevail in Minnesota. The U.S. Drought Monitor released for November 14th shows less than one percent of the Minnesota landscape is in Extreme Drought, about 18 percent is in Severe Drought and 25 percent is in Moderate Drought. These figures are likely to change little before the end of the year.<br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">New USDA Plant Hardiness Zones:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">Earlier this week the USDA used a press release to announce the new Plant Hardiness Zones. The new map was derived by analyzing climate data from 13,412 climate stations across the USA using the period of the three most recent complete decades. It shows quite an expansion of Plant Hardiness Zones across Minnesota, including the emergence of Zone 5a across a much larger geography. Pockets of northeastern Minnesota where extreme low temperatures can range between -40°F and -45°F are in zone 2a, while many sections of southern Minnesota and the Twin Cities Metro Area are in zone 5a. The expansion of the Plant Hardiness Zones is definitely a result of climate change and allows nursery and landscape professionals to use a wider range of plants in designing for home, park, and business landscapes. You can find the new <a href="https://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/" target="_blank">Plant Hardiness Zone map on the USDA web site.</a><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/deep-emissions-cuts-still-needed-to-prevent-the-worst-climate-change-impacts" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features a summarizing article about the 5th Annual Climate Assessment released earlier this week. Among many findings the report states that “without rapid and deep reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, the risks of accelerating sea level rise, intensifying extreme weather, and other harmful climate impacts will continue to grow.” This report is definitely worth reading if you care about climate change.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67422663" target="_blank">BBC</a> reported on a record-setting Heat Wave in parts of Brazil this week. Sao Paulo reported a high temperature of 100°F and Rio de Janeiro reported 109°F, both record highs for November. But dew points were above the 80°F mark making the Heat Index range between 121°F and 137°F. More than a hundred million people were being affected by the Heat Wave, which was expected to slowly dissipate over the weekend. Summer does not begin in Brazil for two more weeks.<br /><br />Strong winds and heavy rains plagued southeastern Florida on Wednesday and Thursday this week. Some areas reported 6 to 9 inches of rainfall which produced flash flooding. Winds gusted from 40 to 60 mph bringing down some trees and power lines. <a href="https://weather.com/storms/severe/video/wind-downed-trees-crash-into-cars-business-near-miami?cm_ven=hp-slot-1" target="_blank">The Weather Underground web site</a> reported on the storm.<br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">Wind gusts over 40 mph this week kept blowing over our trash cans and making it difficult to rake leaves. Made us wonder what has been the strongest wind in November for the Twin Cities? <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">November 18 of 2016 brought wind gusts up to 59 mph, and November 6th of last year (2022 brought 4 consecutive hours of wind gusts over 50 mph. November 8th of 1986 also brought similar wind gusts. Not much you can do to stop trash cans from blowing over, or for the wind sending your leaves off to another neighborhood! <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for November 17th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for November 17th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1880; lowest daily minimum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 49 degrees F in 2015; record precipitation of 1.21 inches in 2015. There was a record 9.0 inches of snowfall in 1886. <br /><br />Average dew point for November 17th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 58°F in 1958; and the minimum dew point on this date is -14 degrees F in 1959. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for November 17th:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 2001. The state record low temperature for this date is -19 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) in 1914. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.21 inches at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. The state snowfall record is 15.0 inches at Roseau (Roseau County) also in 1996. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Word of the Week: Gale </h4><p style="text-align: left;"><br />This word is popularly used to describe an unusually strong wind (i.e. anything greater than 25 mph but less than hurricane strength of 75 mph). In nautical terminology it has more specific meaning: a moderate gale is a wind of 32 to 38 mph; a fresh gale is 39 to 46 mph; a strong gale is 47 to 54 mph; and a whole gale is greater than 55 mph. It first came into use in the nineteenth century with the British adoption of the Beaufort scale to estimate wind speeds at sea based upon observed effects (such as size of the swells). <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">An Arctic air mass invaded Minnesota on November 17 of 1914 bringing many record-setting low temperatures. Much of the northern half of the state saw subzero morning lows, while single digit temperatures were common in the southern counties. The daytime high temperature only reached 9°F at Hallock in Kittson County. <br /><br />A large winter storm system brought mixed precipitation and strong winds to the state over November 14-18 in 1996. Blizzard conditions occurred in portions of northwestern and north central Minnesota where 10 to 14 inches of snow fell and then blew into large drifts as a result of the strong winds. Elsewhere a mixture of sleet, rain, and freezing rain occurred. Some areas of eastern Minnesota reported over 4 inches of rain causing some minor flooding. Freezing rain brought down powerlines and knocked out electrical service in portions of southwestern Minnesota. <br /><br />Mild autumn weather blanketed most of the state on November 17 of 2001. Most afternoon temperatures ranged from 60°F to as high as 76°F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County). Even the morning low temperatures set records for warmth, with 55°F recorded at Wheaton (Traverse County). <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">Mostly sunny over the weekend with daytime high temperatures above normal. Increasing cloudiness on Monday with a chance for rain (some snow in the north), lingering into Tuesday. Then cooling down next week for Wednesday through Friday with below normal temperatures. Most of the week will be dry.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-10764316109406514322023-11-10T13:26:00.000-06:002023-11-10T13:26:11.792-06:00November Climate Trends<h2>November Climate Trends:</h2>Periodically I get asked by MPR listeners or Minnesota WeatherTalk Blog readers what some of the recent climate trends are for Minnesota. I thought I would take a moment to exam the trends for temperature and precipitation in the month of November of the most recent 25 years (since 1998). So here goes. <br /><br />For context the long-term November temperature trend in Minnesota (on a statewide basis) is plus 2.6°F over the past century. The months of February (+4.4°F), January (+4.1°F, March (+4.0°F, and December (+3.3°F) show an even more positive temperature trend over the past century. But if we break down the most recent 25 years of climate data, November has been warmer than normal in 17 years including 9 consecutive years from 2004 to 2009, normal in 4 years, and cooler than normal in only 4 years. That is a very strong warming trend,statiscally speaking. The warmest November in state history was in 2001 which was nearly 13°F above normal on a statewide basis. So far, this November (2023) has been cooler than normal in far northern Minnesota, but warmer than in the southern two-thirds of the state. Outlook models suggest the balance of the month will be warmer than normal statewide. <br /><br />Regarding the November precipitation trends, there is a modest upward trend over the past century of 0.13 inches on a statewide basis. But over the most recent 25 years November has been drier than normal 15 times, wetter than normal 9 times, and normal just once. Five of the last six Novembers have been drier than normal on a statewide basis, while November of 2002 was the 5th driest in state history with a statewide average precipitation of only 0.26 inches. Through the first 10 days of this November, most climate observers are reporting less than normal precipitation, following along with this recent 25-year trend. <br /><br />A FURTHER FOOTNOTE ON THIS NOVEMBER: Based on Minnesota’s climate history, November is the 2nd windiest month of the year (trailing only April). This is proving to be the case this year in that a majority of state climate stations are reporting 4 to 5 days with wind gusts over 30 mph, and some days with wind gusts over 40 mph. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Give To The Max Day, November 16: </h3><p>If you routinely participate in Give to The Max Day and also care about our changing climate and its impacts in Minnesota, please consider a donation to the Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership (MCAP). MCAP is doing great work to help Minnesota citizens adapt to climate change. If you wish more information before making a donation, please go to <a href="https://climate.umn.edu/events/2023-give-to-the-max" target="_blank">MCAP web site</a>.<br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Program on Climate Change at Hennepin Ave UMC:</h3><p><a href="https://haumc.org/event/hope-for-creation-in-a-climate-changed-world-with-dr-tim-eberhart-of-garrett-seminary-4/" target="_blank">Hope for Creation in a Climate Changed World </a>is an ongoing discussion and seminar series sponsored by Hennepin Ave United Methodist Church (511 Groveland Ave) in Minneapolis. As part of this series I will be speaking on Climate Change, Environmental Stewardship, and Community Care: A Minnesota Perspective this Sunday, November 12, from 11 am to 12:15 pm in the Art Gallery Room. If this topic is of interest, all are welcome to attend.<br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p>This week the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67360140" target="_blank">BBC Weather Center</a> reports on the record-breaking wildfire season in Canada and on research that shows most wildfires in the northern boreal forests are started by lightning. Climate change research further suggests that there will be more frequent lightning caused fires in the northern boreal forests. Recent research based on climate models that lightning frequency over intact northern forests would increase by 11-31% for every degree of global warming.<br /><br />Jonathan Erdman of the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/climate/news/2023-11-08-billion-dollar-disasters-record-2023-october" target="_blank">Weather Underground </a>reports this week and what a record-setting year it has been for billion-dollar weather disasters. NOAA has reported that 25 weather events each have caused at least $1 billion in damage across the USA this year. This is the most in 43 years of such record keeping. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>From ice-fisherman Bob….Are lake water temperatures warmer than average for Red Lake and Lake of the Woods? If so and with little below 32 temperatures forecast the next 10 days, when will there be drivable ice? <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>Yes, both lake and soil temperatures are running above normal for this time of year. Many lakes are registering temperatures from the upper 30s F to mid-40s F. MN-DNR guidelines suggest 9-12 inches of ice cars and 13-17 inches for trucks. It will be a long time yet before ice thickness reaches that level. Be aware that the forecast for the balance of this month is for warmer than normal temperatures, so even more delay is likely for lake ice to form. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>Over the years my wife and I have heard you speak several times at the Gales of November Conference on the North Shore. You highlighted many of the great storms on Lake Superior, including the loss of the Edmund Fitgerald on November 10, 1975. You also mentioned some of the history of shipping losses on the Great Lakes. If I remember correctly strong storms are the primary reason for historical shipping losses, is that correct? <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>You are correct. Of the documented historical shipping losses on the Great Lakes, back to the 19 Century, well over 50 percent of them have been due to stormy weather. Of further note, many hundreds of shipping losses have occurred during the month of November, a peak time for storm weather on the Great Lakes. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for November 10th:</h4><p> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for November 10th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 19 degrees F in 1986; lowest daily minimum temperature of 3 degrees F in 1986; highest daily minimum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1909; record precipitation of 1.36 inches in 1915. There was a record 5.0 inches of snowfall in 1896. <br /><br />Average dew point for November 10th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 2012; and the minimum dew point on this date is -3 degrees F in 2017. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for November 10th:</h4><p> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 78 degrees F at Winona Dam (Winona County) in 1999. The state record low temperature for this date is -15 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1933. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.80 inches at Minnesota City (Winona County) in 1975. The state snowfall record is 12.4 inches at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1919. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">November 10 of 1933 was the coldest in history with most areas of the state reporting morning low temperatures in the single digits or teens. Thirteen northern Minnesota counties reported subzero temperatures. <br /><br />About 7pm on November 10, 1975 a brutal winter storm sank the Edmund Fitzgerald ore carrier on Lake Superior just northeast of Whitefish Bay, after the ship had fought through 70 plus mph winds and huge waves to cross the lake. The sinking was immortalized by Gordon Lightfoot who died earlier this year. <br /><br />On November 10, 1999 most Minnesota climate stations reported afternoon temperatures of 60°F or greater. The temperature reached 70°F or greater in 30 counties. The temperature reached 72°F as far north as Tower (St Louis County) setting a record there. Over 50 record high temperatures were set that day. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">Temperatures will warm up significantly over the weekend and through Thursday of next week, with many daytime highs reaching the 50s and 60s F. The entire week looks to be dry in most areas with an increasing chance for showers by Thursday.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-70426457604515078262023-11-03T10:20:00.009-05:002023-11-03T10:20:50.729-05:00November Starts Cold, Following a Wet October<h2 style="text-align: left;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
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<![endif]-->November Starts Cold, Following a Wet October:</h2><p>November started colder than normal following the snow of late October. Many places reported temperatures from 10 to 12 degrees F colder than normal over the first two days of the month. The first subzero temperature of the autumn season was reported at Brimson (St Louis County) on the morning of November 1st. A few places in both northeastern and southeastern Minnesota reported snow as well, including 2 inches at Hokah (Houston County) and Mabel (Fillmore County), and a half inch at Kabetogama (St Louis County). <br /><br />Although about half the days of October were colder than normal and half warmer than normal, average monthly temperatures were generally 2 to 6 degrees warmer than normal across the state, mostly thanks to record warm start to the month. At least 74 communities reported one day or more of 90° F or higher. Within the state climate station network, 149 daily high maximum temperature records were set, and 180 daily high minimum temperature records were set during the month. Of special note were two new statewide maximum temperature records, 96°F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on October 1st , and 96°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) on October 2nd. Conversely a handful of cold maximum daily temperatures were set over the final 3 days of the month, including a cold afternoon high temperature of just 28°F at Lamberton (Redwood County) on the 29th. Extremes for the month ranged from 96°F at Granite Falls on the 1st and Theilman and the 2nd, to just 5°F at Hibbing on the 31st. Overall with a statewide mean temperature for October of 47.3°, the month ranked among the 25 warmest in state history. <br /><br />Rainfall was frequent (about half of the days) and above normal in most places during October. Many climate stations reported a monthly total precipitation of 4 to 6 inches, over twice normal. Marshall reported 6.01 inches, the 3rd most in history, and Tracy reported 6.49 inches, also the 3rd most in history. Lamberton reported 6.38 inches, their 2nd wettest October in history, and Winona Dam reported 7.70 inches, their wettest in history. Within the state climate station network, there were 71 new daily precipitation records set, including one new statewide daily record of 4.17 inches at Winona Dam on October 25th. Overall, the statewide average total precipitation for October was 3.33 inches, ranking as the 17th wettest in history. <br /><br />Over the final days of the month there were a handful of daily snowfall records reported including 6.1 inches at Thorhult (Beltrami County) and 6.0 inches at Lake Bronson (Kittson County) on the 27th. Then on October 31st too many daily snowfall records were set to list here, but some of them were 7.2 inches at Wolf Ridge ELC (Lake County), 4.4 inches at Brimson (St Louis County), 3.5 inches at Itasca State Park, and 3.0 inches at New York Mills (Otter Tail County). Many Twin Cities area observers reported over 2 inches. <br /><br />The mild and wet autumn was generally beneficial in extending the gardening season and replenishing soil moisture. The combination of September and October temperature-wise ranked as the 6th warmest in history on a statewide basis, and with respect to precipitation ranked as the 20th wettest. <br /><br />With all of the autumn precipitation, drought conditions have been significantly mitigated, though not entirely erased. The current Drought Monitor this week still shows close to 44 percent of the Minnesota landscape in Moderate Drought or worse, but this is the lowest figure since June 27th., a period of 19 weeks. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">This week’s <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105747" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> features a unique study funded by the German Research Foundation, “Can Artificial Intelligence-Based Weather Prediction Models Simulate the Butterfly Effect?” Deploying artificial intelligence (AI) in weather forecast models does not adequately account for the “butterfly effect” (small perturbations in the atmosphere that can become magnified through random interactions). This may put a limit on the ability of AI to enhance weather forecast models.<br /> <br />The <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/weather/news/2023-11-02-storm-ciaran-france-united-kingdom-europe-wind-flood-impacts" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> provide a comprehensive report on Storm Ciaran this week. This storm brought high winds and heavy rains to parts of northwestern Europe. In the southwestern part of the United Kingdom heavy rains brought flooding to many communities. Record breaking high winds (over 100 mph) caused damage and power outages along the Normandy coast in France. Damaging winds were also reported from Belgium and Spain. The United Kingdome Meteorological Office reported record low barometric pressure in parts of England for this strong November storm.<br /><br />A new study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-023-00485-y" target="_blank">Nature Reviews Earth & Environment</a> by University of Maryland researchers documents the anthropogenic salt cycle, emphasizing the negative impacts of recent changes. The researchers found that “excess salt propagates…… causing freshwater salinization syndrome to extend beyond freshwater supplies and affect food and energy production, air quality, human health and infrastructure.” Some of this excess salt comes from its use in making roads more passable in the winter season.<br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">Talk about procrastination, I still have one side of the house to paint and need one more day of 50°F weather to get it done. Any chance? BTW I live in Roseville. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p style="text-align: left;">Historically over the past 150 years November has not brought a 50°F day in only 8 years, thus 95 percent of the time we see at least one day of 50°F during November. So, history is on your side. In the forecast guidance it appears that this Sunday and Monday may bring 50°F plus to the Twin Cities, and even the second weekend of November may bring such temperatures. It looks like you are in good shape to get your work done. <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for November 3rd:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for November 3rd: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 2008; lowest daily maximum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 8 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1955; record precipitation of 0.53 inches in 1970. There was a record 4.2 inches of snowfall in 1951. <br /><br />Average dew point for November 3rd is 30°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is 2 degrees F in 1991. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for November 3rd:</h4><p style="text-align: left;"> The state record high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1909. The state record low temperature for this date is -8 degrees F at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1951. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.62 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) in 1919. The state snowfall record is 26.0 inches at Onamia Ranger Station (Lake County) in 1991. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p style="text-align: left;">On November 3 of 1951 many climate stations set new record low temperatures with readings in the single digits and even subzero in northern counties. Park Rapids reported a morning low of -8°F and climbed to an afternoon high temperature of just 18°F. It was the beginning of a long winter season in Minnesota. <br /><br />Many Minnesota citizens took their lunch break outside on November 3 of 1978. Most places in the state saw afternoon high temperatures climb into the 70s F with bright sunshine prevailing. <br /><br />Twenty-two years ago, many parts of the state were recovering from the Halloween Blizzard, which over a period of 3 days brought 20 to 36 inches of snowfall to many parts of the state. Those working to remove the snow also had to contend with very cold temperatures, with single digit and even subzero temperatures in some areas and Wind Chill conditions of minus teens. <br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">Temperatures will moderate over the weekend and climb above normal across much of the southern half of Minnesota this lingering into Tuesday. It will be sunnier, but brezzy. In the north temperatures will remain closer to normal over the weekend with chances for snow and rain into Monday. There will be increasing chances for precipitation (mixed) on Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler temperatures. Then moderating temperatures toward above normal values by next weekend.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-91420984561930712842023-10-27T13:27:00.000-05:002023-10-27T13:27:13.495-05:00Wet October Will Wrap Up with Snow<h2 style="text-align: left;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Mention"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Smart Hyperlink"/>
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<![endif]-->Wet October Will Wrap Up with Snow:</h2><p>Another wet week prevailed across much of southern Minnesota with rainfall totals over 1 inch in many locations. A few spots in southeastern Minnesota reported over 2 inches this past week and some long-term climate stations reported new daily rainfall records. <br /><br />For October 24 MSP reported a record 1.34 inches, Rochester a record 2.26 inches, and Minnesota City a record 1.40 inches. Then for October 25th there were several new daily record rainfalls reported, including: <br /><br />4.17 inches at Winona Dam <br />2.15 inches at Lamberton <br />2.10 inches at Hastings Dam and St Peter <br />1.78 inches at Zumbrota <br />1.75 inches at Red Wing <br />1.56 inches at Faribault <br /><br />The 4.17 inches at Winona Dam on October 25th was a also a new statewide record for that date. <br /><br />Yet more significant rainfall was measured on October 26th but few record amounts were reported. <br /><br />Snow was also reported in northwestern Minnesota counties on October 26th and 27th. Some reports included: <br /><br />8 inches at Lake Bronson (Kittson County) <br />5.6 inches at Karlstand (Kittson County) <br />5.0 inches at Warroad (Roseau County) <br />4.0 inches at Warren (Marshall County) <br />3.0 inches at Crookston (Polk County) <br />2.6 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) <br />1.0 inches at Moorhead, Big Falls, and Kabetogama <br /><br />The month-to-date rainfall totals are already over twice normal and range from 3 to 5 inches in some areas now. With five days left in the month to bring more rain (and snow) there is a possibility this month will end up with a statewide average precipitation of over 3 inches, places it among the 20 wettest Octobers in history. <br /><br />There is also an unusual statistic in this year’s precipitation data for many climate stations: because it has been a dry year for most locations in the state, many some areas are reporting October as the wettest month of the year. Some of these places include: <br /><br />Winona Dam with 7.65 inches <br />Marshall with 5.98 inches <br />Faribault with 5.81 inches <br />Canby with 4.59 inches <br />Dawson with 4.45 inches <br /><br />Areas of Moderate to Severe Drought declined over the past week by about 4 percent, but this assessment did not include rainfalls from Wednesday and Thursday this week. The area of the state in Moderate Drought or worse remains above 50 percent. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p>The <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/news/2023-10-26-hurricane-otis-tropical-cyclone-acapulco-mexico-updates" target="_blank">Weather Underground</a> reported on Category 5 Hurricane Otis coming ashore on the Pacific coast of Mexico this week. It was one of the strongest hurricanes to ever strike the Pacific coast of that Mexico with winds close to 165 mph. Acapulco was especially hit hard. At least 27 people were killed and over 30,000 evacuated from their homes. Power outages were widespread. <br /><br />This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/arctic-warming-triggers-abrupt-ecosystem-shift-in-north-americas-deepest-lake" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> has an interesting article about the effects of climate change on North America’s deepest lake, the Great Slave Lake in the Northwest Territories of Canada. Warming temperatures and declining ice cover brought by climate change are changing the lake’s ecosystem. Among other measured changes, there has been a detectable change in the composition of phytoplankton in the lake. This has implications for the entire aquatic food chain.<br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>With nearly 7 inches of rainfall so far this month here in Winona County, we were wondering what the record wettest October is? <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>The record October precipitation for Winona County was in 1900 with 11.35 inches at St Charles (this is also the statewide record). Second most in your county was 7.54 inches at the city of Winona in 1911. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for October 27th:</h4><p> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for October 27th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1948; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1925; lowest daily minimum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1997; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1964; record precipitation of 2.22 inches in 1971. There was a record 2.6 inches of snowfall in 1919. <br /><br />Average dew point for October 27th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1971; and the minimum dew point on this date is 11 degrees F in 1925. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for October 27th:</h4><p> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 93 degrees F at Chatfield (Olmsted County) in 1927. The state record low temperature for this date is -10 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1919. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.25 inches at St Charles (Winona County) in 1900. The state snowfall record is 7.7 inches at Two Harbors 7NW (Lake County) in 2010. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Words of the Week: Dog Teeth</h4><p>Norwegian meteorologists devised the concept of the weather front following World War I. For mapped synoptic depiction of clashing air masses and their associated frontal boundaries, symbols needed to be used to distinguish cold fronts from warm fronts. The Norwegians saw a moving boundary of an air mass across a land surface as analogous to the advance of the Allied army in WWI, thus they coined the use of the word front. In the battle for the Western Front in WWI, the British Army front line was symbolized by a solid blue line on maps, and some had dog teeth (right-facing triangles) along the forward edge. The blue line with dog teeth was adopted as the symbol for a cold front, characterized by the fast approach of harsh weather, with strong winds. Conversely, the red line (symbolic of the German Army front line in WWI), with half circles became symbolic of the warm front. Such colors and symbols are still used today. Any meteorologist will associate dog teeth with a cold front. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p>October 27 of 1919 a winter storm brought snow and cold to the state with some record-setting low temperatures as well as record-setting snowfalls. Many northern communities reported sub zero low temperatures and also 4 to 5 inches of snow. Hinckley reported 6 inches of snow on the ground. <br /><br />October 27 of 1955 brought a very warm autumn day with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s F across the state. Campbell (Wilkin County) started out the morning at 33°F but warmed up to 84° by mid-afternoon. <br /><br /> Thirteen years ago, over October 26-27 one of the strongest storms to ever cross Minnesota brought a mixture of precipitation to the state, along with extreme winds. Many areas reported wind gusts over 60 mph. Waves were as high as 27 feet on Lake Superior. A new all-time statewide record low pressure was measured at 5:14 pm at Bigfork (Itasca County) with a reading of 28.21 inches, equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane. The National Weather Service did an excellent job in forecasting the storm. A storm summary was provided by the <a href="https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/low_pressure_101026.html" target="_blank">Minnesota State Climatology Office</a>.<br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p>Transition to colder than normal temperatures over the weekend with chances for snow on Saturday and in the north both Saturday and Sunday. Remaining colder than normal for Monday through Wednesday of next week. Then temperatures return to near normal towards the end of next week. It will generally be dry over the first few days of November.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-54700224915352840502023-10-19T16:28:00.002-05:002023-10-19T16:28:49.327-05:00Beneficial October Rains Continue<h2>Beneficial October Rains Continue:</h2><p>Rains over the past week were more widespread, with significant amounts (over 1 inch) in roughly the southern half of the state. Many areas reported over 2 inches of rainfall, and some over 3 inches. The most rain occurred at places like St James (Watonwan County) and Marshall (Lyon County) which reported over 4 inches. <br /><br />Over October 13 and 14 some long-term climate stations reported new daily record amounts of rainfall. A sampling: <br /><br /> On October 13: </p><p><br />2.50” at Marshall <br />2.42” at Albert Lea <br />2.34” at Milan <br />2.31” at St James <br />2.23” at Lamberton <br />2.13” at Collegeville <br />2.00” at Winnebago <br /><br />On October 14: <br /><br />1.87 inches at St James <br />1.43 inches at Owatonna <br />1.38 inches at Faribault <br />1.19 inches at Mora <br /><br />These rains boosted the monthly totals to over 4 inches at many locations and certainly put a dent in the drought that has persisted through the summer and autumn seasons. The area of the state in Moderate Drought or worse fell by 14 percent from the previous week and now stands at roughly 58 percent of the state landscape. This is a drop of nearly 25 percent since the end of September. The rest of October is expected to see above normal rainfall, so we should expect some continued improvement in drought by the end of the month. <br /><br />The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released a new Drought Outlook on Thursday, October 19 this week. It examines the expected weather patterns through January 31, 2024 and their impact on drought. The outlook suggests that over half of Minnesota will still be experiencing drought by the end of January, with some improvement in far southeastern portions of the state (primarily Houston, Winona, and Fillmore Counties). <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri:</h3><p>The <a href="https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/journal/el-nino-oct-2023.html" target="_blank">DNR-Minnesota State Climatology Office web site</a> this week offers a detailed discussion of the winter weather impacts associated with an El Nino episode. It is clear that in most cases El Nino is associated with milder winter temperatures across Minnesota, as well as less seasonal snowfall, but it is not a 100 percent correlation. There have been exceptions to this association, like in the winters of 1991-1992 and 2018-2019. <br /><br />A recent paper published in <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hyp.1495" target="_blank">Hydrological Processes</a> details the manner in which river water temperatures rise during episodes of drought. During drought conditions when river flow volumes are low, high atmospheric energy inputs can cause large increases in the water temperature. These very-high water temperatures have significant impact on freshwater ecosystem health. Climate change is bringing a higher frequency of drought and low waterflow volume to many areas. Potential ecosystem impacts of these frequent low flows, along with higher water temperatures need to be further studied to assess what management strategies might help mitigate detrimental effects on these freshwater ecosystems. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>My favorite temps for working in the garden are the 60s … but we hardly EVER have highs in the 60s!! Seems like in the spring and fall, the normal daily highs in the Twin Cities are in the 60s F, but that is based on long-term averages, the reality is that the daily high temperatures seem to more often be in the 50s F or the 70s F. Can you verify this? <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>Indeed, I have heard this before from other gardeners. For the Twin Cities climate normal high temperatures are in the 60s F in the spring from April 22 to May 17 (a period of 26 days), and they are in the 60s F during the autumn from September 25 to October 13 (a period of 19 days). <br /><br />Based on long-term climatology, actual afternoon high temperatures during these periods of time in the spring and fall are in the 60s F only about one-third of the time. Most of the rest of the days bring high temperatures either in the 50s or 70s F. So in coping with reality and keeping your garden going, you must either bundle up and work in colder temperatures, or work in the morning hours before the temperatures climb above 70°F. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for October 20th </h4><p> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for October 20th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degrees F in 1930; lowest daily minimum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1960; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 2.64 inches in 1934. There was a record 3.0 inches of snowfall in 1916. <br /><br />Average dew point for October 20th is 37°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 66°F in 1920; and the minimum dew point on this date is 8 degrees F in 1952. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for October 20th:</h4><p> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 91 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1947. The state record low temperature for this date is -1 degrees F at Argyle (Marshall County) in 1916. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.95 inches at Chaska (Carver County) in 1934. The state snowfall record is 10.0 inches at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1906. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p>An early winter storm brought heavy snowfall to northwestern Minnesota on October 20 of 1906. Many areas reported 5 to 9 inches of snowfall. Detroit Lakes reported 10 inches, a statewide record for the date. It was a precursor to a heavy snow season for northern Minnesota during 1906-1907. Many areas had over 90 inches of snow and Leech Lake reported 110 inches. <br /><br />With snow already on the ground in most places, October 20 of 1916 brought record-setting low temperatures to most of the state. Many climate stations reported morning lows in the single digits, while much of the rest of the state reported temperatures in the teens. The daytime high temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached 26°F. <br /><br />The warmest October 20th occurred in 1947. Most areas of the state reported daytime high temperatures in the 70s and 80s F. Five southwestern Minnesota communities saw the thermometer reach 90°F. After a morning low of 38°F Wheaton (Traverse County) reported an afternoon high of 87°F. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><p><br /> Mostly warmer than normal and dry for Saturday through Monday, except for parts of northern Minnesota which will remain near normal temperatures with daily chances for showers. Chance for showers again late next Tuesday through Wednesday with much cooler temperatures. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal for the balance of the month after that. </p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-21334381187007037062023-10-13T13:23:00.000-05:002023-10-13T13:23:13.060-05:00Frosts more widespread, still dry, winds picking up:<h2>Frosts more widespread, still dry, winds picking up:</h2>About 60 percent of Minnesota reported at least one frost over the past week, and many climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the twenties F. Up north Brimson reported 26°F and Embarrass 27°F, while in southeastern Minnesota Grand Meadow reported 24°F and Preston 22°F. Suffice to say the growing season has ended for many parts of the state. <br /><br />Little rain occurred over this past week, and most climate stations are well below normal for the month so far. However, widespread and welcome rains are expected over Friday and Saturday, perhaps as much as 2-3 inches in some places. With 60 to 70 percent of the state rated very short or short in stored soil moisture at the present time, the rains are likely to be absorbed readily by the landscape, a good sign. Crop harvesting will be disrupted for a few days by the rains, but farmers are making slow progress this month in getting corn and soybeans in storage. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 33 percent of the Minnesota landscape remains in Moderate Drought, and about 40 percent in Severe to Extreme Drought. Hopefully with the rains this situation will improve next week. <br /><br />Winds have increased over the past week and generally are above average for this time of year. Most climate stations report 6 to 9 days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater, and a number of days with gusts over 40 mph. Most medium range forecasts suggest that winds will continue to be mostly higher than normal with above normal temperatures prevailing until the last week of the month. <br /><br /><h2>Early October Snows: </h2>One of the earliest heavy snowstorms of record occurred at Camp Coldwater (later Ft Snelling) from October 12-14, 1820. The soldiers there measured eleven inches of snowfall from this storm, which introduced a second consecutive cold and snowy winter. Even after 203 years, the total of 11 inches of snow remains the record amount for the month of October in the Twin Cities area ranking ahead of 9.3 inches in 2020, 8.2 inches in 1991 (Halloween Blizzard), and 6.0 inches in 1835. Both November and December of 1820 brought abundant snowfall as well, as Minnesota was beginning to establish its 19th Century reputation as the American Siberia. <br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3><br /> In this week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/plants-worldwide-reach-a-stomata-stalemate" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> is an interesting article which suggests that as climate change progresses, plant water use efficiency may stabilize, and plants will not be able to fix as much carbon dioxide as plant physiologists earlier thought. This is because vapor pressure deficits will increase and restrict the flow of both water vapor and carbon dioxide through the leaf stomata.<br /><br />This week the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-67087949" target="_blank">BBC Weather Center</a> has featured a program about the devastating drought in Brazil which has dried up some rivers and prevented commercial shipping by boat through areas of the Amazon. Many shipping supplies have been grounded by low water levels and some communities that have used surface water supplies have had to drill wells for drinking water.<br /><br />A recent study published in <a href="https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(23)02031-X?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS258900422302031X%3Fshowall%3Dtrue" target="_blank">iScience </a>examined the weather impacts on grape quality in the Bordeaux region of France. The researchers found that “to increase wine quality, ideal conditions include high water abundance during the winter months and low water abundance in the summer, coupled with high temperatures.” They also concluded that climate change in Bordeaux will likely lead to more extreme weather, with variation depending on the location.<br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>What is the most snowfall to ever fall in the month of October? <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>As stated above, for the Twin Cities area it is 11 inches back in 1820, a long time ago. Across the entire state, the record total snowfall for October rests with two northern communities. In October of 1916, Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) reported 19 inches of snowfall, and in October of 1932, Mizpah (Koochiching County) reported 19.4 inches of snowfall. <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for October 13th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for October 13th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 1956; lowest daily maximum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1937; lowest daily minimum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 62 degrees F in 2000; record precipitation of 1.52 inches in 1890. There was a record 0.4 inches of snowfall in 1969. <br /><br />Average dew point for October 13th is 41°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 1962; and the minimum dew point on this date is 14 degrees F in 1937. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for October 13th:</h4> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 89 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1958 and again at Luverne (Rock County and Fairmont (Martin County) in 1975. The state record low temperature for this date is 2 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1936. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.71 inches at Fosston (Polk County) in 1984. The state snowfall record is 7.0 inches at Warroad (Roseau County) in 2006. <br /><h3>Past Weather: </h3>October 13th in both 1975 and 1995 brought record-setting high temperatures to many Minnesota communities. Many southern Minnesota climate stations reported afternoon highs from 82°F to 89°F. Tower, normally a cold spot in the state, reported a record high of 81°F in 1995. <br /><br />Record-setting cold temperatures prevailed across the state on October 13, 1933. The majority of climate stations reported morning lows between 10°F and 25°F, while both Leech Lake and Moose Lake reported 9°F. The afternoon high at Orr only reached 35°F. <br /><br />October 13-14 in 1959 brought an early winter storm to the state. Many areas reported from 1 to 4 inches of snowfall. Portions of southwestern Minnesota reported over 5 inches. <br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2><br /> Some lingering rain in southern areas of the state on Saturday. Then, sunny on Sunday with temperatures slowly climbing to normal or above normal next week. Mostly a dry week with a chance for showers on Wednesday.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-39281795610926168912023-10-06T12:44:00.000-05:002023-10-06T12:44:16.045-05:00Wet Conclusion to September Followed by Record Warm Start to October<h2 style="text-align: left;">Wet Conclusion to September Followed by Record Warm Start to October:</h2><p>As mentioned last week, on a statewide basis September delivered average rainfall that was above normal, the first month to do so since last April. For northeastern Minnesota counties, September was the 2nd wettest in history with average rainfall of nearly 7 inches. One observer near Duluth reported over 13 inches for the month. Conversely many parts of southwestern Minnesota reported less than 1 inch of rainfall for September, and places like Luverne, Pipestone, and Slayton reported less than three-quarters of an inch. <br /><br />A lion’s share of the rainfall occurred over the last week of the month, with many climate observers reporting rain every day of the week, totaling over 3 inches and in a few cases over 4 inches. On September 29 MSP reported a record-setting rainfall of 1.51 inches, and on the 30th Hastings Dam reported a record 1.10 inches. <br /><br />With the wet end to September came some soaring temperatures, providing the warmest start to October since 1976. Forty climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature of 90°F or greater on October 1st, including a new statewide record high of 95°F at Milan for that date. On October 2nd another 39 climate stations reported 90°F or greater, with Lamberton reporting a statewide record-tying value of 95°F for that date (Wheaton was also 95°F in 1953). Finally on October 3rd, when the Heat Wave began to subside, 7 more climate stations reported high temperatures of 90°F or greater. <br /><br />Within the state climate station network over the first three days of October, there were 135 daily record high maximum temperatures and 193 daily record warm minimum temperatures, including a morning low of 71°F at Marshall on October 2nd. <br /><br />Overall, we have recorded the warmest first five days of October in state history. Most climate stations have averaged 14 to 18 degrees warmer than normal. With this magnitude of aberration in the temperature pattern there is no doubt that October will be a warmer than normal month. The important question is will the rainfall pattern help to mitigate the drought across the state, which still persists in most areas. Latest guidance from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center suggests that drought will persist across most of the state through the end of the year. <br /><br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3><p><br /> This week’s <a href="https://eos.org/research-spotlights/radar-tracks-unfortunate-creatures-trapped-in-tropical-cyclones" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> contains an article about researchers who have found that Tropical Cyclones can transport birds and flying insects considerable distances, displacing them to habitats where they are not commonly found. Flying creatures such as birds and insects can become trapped inside the eye of a tropical cyclone carried along as it moves over considerable distance.<br /><br />The <a href="https://www.bbc.com/weather/features/66957427" target="_blank">BBC Weather Center</a> reported earlier this week that September was the warmest in history for the United Kingdom, averaging about 5°F above normal. They also recorded the warmest temperature of the year during the first week of September (highly unusual for that country) with a reading of 91°F at Kew Gardens. It was also the warmest September in history in France, Germany, Denmark, and Austria.<br /><br />Jet Stream is an online school curriculum for educators, emergency managers, or anyone interested in learning about weather and weather safety. It is presented in 15 different sub topics related to understanding all the elements of the weather. <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/jetstream" target="_blank">The National Weather Service</a> makes this curriculum available to all interested parties. You can read more about it online.<br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question:</h4><p>We have already experienced so many hot temperatures in October, we were wondering has Minnesota ever seen below zero temperature readings in the month of October? <br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer:</h4><p>Indeed, on several occasions. In October of 1887, 1913, 1916, 1917, 1919, 1925, 1936, and 1976 below zero temperatures were recorded, mostly in northern counties. The earliest ever below zero F reading was at Argyle (Marshall County) on October 20, 1916 when they recorded -1°F. There is nothing on the horizon for this October like that. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">Twin Cities Almanac for October 6th:</h4><p> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for October 6th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 2007; lowest daily maximum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1952; lowest daily minimum temperature of 25 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2007; record precipitation of 1.69 inches in 1941. There was a trace of snow on this date in 2005. <br /><br />Average dew point for October 6th is 41°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 69°F in 2007; and the minimum dew point on this date is 12 degrees F in 2000. <br /><br /></p><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for October 6th:</h4><p> <br /> The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1993. The state record low temperature for this date is 8 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1935. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.98 inches at Wolf Ridge ELC (Lake County) in 1998. The state snowfall record is 3.0 inches at Caribou (Kittson County) in 1974. <br /></p><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather:</h3><p>Heavy rains blanketed southern and southwestern Minnesota on October 6, 1911. Many observers reported 2 to 4 inches of rainfall which abruptly stopped crop harvesting and caused a great deal of ponding water on farm fields. <br /><br /> <br />October 6 of 1935 brought record cold temperatures to most locations in the stated. Many observers reported morning low temperatures in the teens and twenties. It was just single digits in northeastern Minnesota. The afternoon high temperature at Brainerd barely made it above freezing at 33°F. <br /><br />Probably the warmest October 5th in state history was in 1963 when many areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures of 80°F or above. Eight Minnesota counties saw temperatures of 90°F or higher. <br /><br />A strong cold front brought snowfall to 17 Minnesota communities on October 6, 1974. Areas of northern Minnesota reported from 1 to 3 inches. The snow was short-lived as temperatures rebounded in to the 50s F the next day. <br /><br /></p><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook:</h2><p style="text-align: left;">Cooler and drier over the weekend with plenty of sun. Chance of frost each morning Saturday through Tuesday with little or no precipitation. A warming trend will start the middle of next week, with a chance for precipitation by Thursday and Friday.</p>Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6101662661397449154.post-5708281465323227372023-09-29T08:15:00.000-05:002023-09-29T08:15:06.689-05:00Preliminary Climate Summary for September<h2>Preliminary Climate Summary for September:</h2>The weather for September was remarkable for record-setting unform warmth and for highly variable rainfall. <br /><br />Most climate stations reported a mean monthly temperature that is 4°F to 6°F warmer than normal making this the warmest September in state history, surpassing that of 2015. During the month at least 173 daily maximum temperature records were tied or set within the state climate network with 14 official climate stations reporting at least one reading of 100°F or greater. In addition, 87 climate stations reported setting or tying daily warm minimum temperature records with some nights never dropping below 70°F. Yet more record-setting temperatures are expected for this Saturday, the last day of the month. September temperature extremes in the state ranged from 104°F at Theilman (Wabasha County) on the 5th to 27°F at Hibbing on the 13th. <br /><br />Rainfall was extremely variable across the state. Some areas received less than an inch of rain for the month, especially in southwestern counties. In the northeast counties many climate observers reported over twice normal rainfall, exceeding 6 inches in many places. And yet more rainfall is expected for the last day of the month on Saturday. Some long-term climate stations have already set records for their wettest ever September, including: <br /><br />Duluth 10.06 inches <br />Two Harbors 7NW 9.24 inches <br />Wolf Ridge ELC (Lake County) 7.62 inches <br />Tettegouche State Park 6.99 inches <br /><br />Dozens of daily rainfall records were set during the month, mostly in northeastern Minnesota, and the statewide average rainfall for the month of nearly 3.5 inches is above normal, marking the first month with a statewide average precipitation above normal since last April. <br /><br />According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the rains of last week helped to reduce the area of Minnesota affected by Moderate Drought or worse. This area shrunk by over 17 percent. However over 80 percent of the Minnesota landscape remains in the grip of Moderate Drought or worse as we end of the month of September. <br /><br />Corn and soybean harvesting was just starting to ramp up earlier this week when the rains came. Some observers have reported 5-7 days of rain over the last week. This has slowed harvest activity significantly as farmers wait for the crop and the soils to dry out more before resuming harvest. In many areas of the state the rains brought sighs of relief as they helped replenish soil moisture, which was very low for the past month or more. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Old Quote About October: </h2>For many Minnesotans, October is a favorite month. It is worth repeating what the Minneapolis Journal said about October in 1895 <br /><br />"October is generally a kingly month in Minnesota. It opens with the usual affluence of sunshine and quickening, bracing air which stimulates ......summer's silent fingering will be overwoven with pageantry of color which no human art can call into being. The recessional of the year is grander than the processional." <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Weekly Weather Potpourri: </h3>The <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/new-global-dataset-shines-a-light-on-humidity-extremes" target="_blank">United Kingdom Met Office</a> released a new global data set on temperature and humidity. The data clearly are related to the extreme episodes of heat that in recent years documented to have immense impact on human health. Scientists who have examined this new data set have “uncovered new ways of examining different types of heat event, for example ‘hot and dry’, ‘hot and humid’ or ‘warm and humid’. Each of these types of extreme heat have different characteristics and require different cooling methods to combat the effects of the type of heat. The new dataset allows users assess what sort of heat event different regions or seasons are mostly experiencing which will help with adaptation measures to cope with our changing climate.”<br /><br />There is an interesting article by Jonathan Erdman of the <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/article/news/climate/news/2023-09-27-canada-wildfire-smoke-crosses-atlantic-ocean-ireland-uk" target="_blank">Weather Underground web site</a> that shows graphically how smoke from the Canadian wildfires crossed the Atlantic Ocean this season causing smoky skies over Ireland. Fires have burned roughly 69,000 square miles in Canada so far this year.<br /><br />In this week’s <a href="https://eos.org/articles/paleostorm-chasers-test-a-new-detection-tool" target="_blank">AGU-EOS Bulletin</a> is an article about researchers who have used a new technique to exam the frequency and magnitude of historical tropical storms. They reported that lead-210, a naturally occurring radioactive isotope, could be used as a chemical marker of old storms buried in the geological record. Testing this method has been successful already in some areas to better document a longer history of tropical storm activity.<br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">MPR listener question: </h4>October is our last full month on Daylight Savings Time, as we go back an hour on the first weekend of November. How many minutes of daylength do we lose during the month of October? <br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">Answer: </h4>In the Twin Cities area, we lose about 70 minutes of daylength during the month of October. This compounds the effect of going off Daylight Savings Time on the first weekend of November when we set our clocks back one hour and it suddenly gets dark at 5:00 pm. <br /><br /><h4>Twin Cities Almanac for September 29th: </h4> The average MSP high temperature for this date is 67 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation). <br /><br />MSP Local Records for September 29th: <br /><br />MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees F in 1897; lowest daily maximum temperature of 44 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily minimum temperature of 27 degrees F in 1945; highest daily minimum temperature of 64 degrees F in 1877; record precipitation of 2.68 inches in 1881. No snow has fallen on this date. <br /><br />Average dew point for September 29th is 45°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 68°F in 1983; and the minimum dew point on this date is 23 degrees F in 1993. <br /><br /><h4 style="text-align: left;">All-time state records for September 29th:</h4> The state record high temperature for this date is 96 degrees F at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1897. The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) in 1899. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.45 inches at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1925. The state snowfall record is 2.1 inches at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1899. <br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Past Weather: </h3>The warmest September 29th in state history occurred in 1897 when most climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures of 80°F or higher. Temperatures of 90°F to 96°F were reported from 17 Minnesota counties. <br /><br />The coldest September 29th was in 1899 when most places in the state reported frost. In northern Minnesota fourteen counties reported morning low temperatures in the teens F, while the afternoon high temperature a Park Rapids barely climbed above freezing at 33°F. Snowfalls were reported from four northern climate stations as well. <br /><br />A slow-moving low pressure system brought heavy rains to many parts of western and northern Minnesota over September 20-30 of 1995. Many climate observers reported 2 inches to 4 inches of rainfall, and a few exceeded 5 inches. These heavy rains delayed crop harvests for up to 10 days. <br /><br /><h2 style="text-align: left;">Outlook: </h2>Warming trend over the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Continued warm temperatures for Monday and Tuesday next week, with increasing chances for showers by Tuesday. Cooler for the balance of next week with chances for showers each day Tuesday through Thursday.Mark Seeleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05971533220675085477noreply@blogger.com0