Twin Cities Climatology of Days Below Freezing and Freeze-Thaw Cycles

Twin Cities Climatology of Days Below Freezing and Freeze-Thaw Cycles:

In a typical Minnesota snow season (Nov-Apr), we experience several long periods of cold when the temperature never gets above freezing (32 F). Even in the heat island of the Twin Cities, there are between 60 and 70 days during each snow season when the maximum temperature never reaches 32 degrees F. This has been the case in the winter of 2025-2026. In fact, so far, since November 1 of 2025, the Twin Cities have seen 51 days when the maximum temperature remained below freezing, and we still have a long way to go in the snow season. BTW, back in the 19th Century, over December 18,1874 to March 8, of 1875, the Twin Cities never saw a temperature above 32° F for 80 consecutive days. For that snow season of 1874-1875 there were 110 days when the daily temperature never reached freezing (32°F) in the Twin Cities. There were 96 such days in the snow season of 1996-1997.and 97 such days in the snow season of 1977-1978.

This snow season (Nov-Apr) has produced near average number of daily freeze-thaw cycles, when the temperature oscillates above and below the freezing mark (32°F) during the 24-hr day. The average number of freeze-thaw daily cycles during the snow season is between 55 and 60 days for the Twin Cities. The extremes of freeze-thaw cycles during the snow season in the Twin Cities range from about 39 days to over 95 days (happened in snow seasons of 1960-1961 and 1989-1990). So far, the Twin Cities climate record since November 1st shows 34 days in which the daily temperature has ranged either side of 32 degrees F (normal is 35 for the Nov 1 to Feb 12 period). But it appears from the forecasts that there will be a lot more such days during the rest of February. This can be detrimental to paved roads, concrete sidewalks and some building materials. It will be interesting to see if this abnormally high incidence of freeze/thaw cycles during the rest of February is manifested in needed road or building repairs this spring.

It looks like most of the balance of February will bring above normal temperatures to Minnesota, perhaps until the final few days of the month. At least 19 different communities reported 50°F or higher on Thursday, February 12th. So far, most climate stations are reporting average temperatures for the month that are 6°F to 10°F above normal.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reports this week that much of the United Kingdom is off to an extremely wet start to the year 2026. Many areas recorded record rains during January. “The Met Office estimates that at current levels of global warming, wet winters like 2023/24 have gone from being once in 80-year events to once in 20 - and with further warming this could become even more frequent. This could have significant impacts for housing, transport and food supply.”

The New York Times featured an article this week about the Trump administration rejecting the scientific finding that greenhouse gases are pollutants and as such can be regulated by the EPA. The report says that this “action is a key step in removing limits on carbon dioxide, methane and four other greenhouse gases that scientists say are supercharging heat waves, droughts, wildfires and other extreme weather.” There will likely be a number of court cases filed to prevent this action, which is deemed by most scientists to be detrimental to the continuing development of clean, sustainable energy sources and other efforts to mitigate climate change.

MPR listener question:

With a forecast for 50°F in the Twin Cities for Valentine’s Day (Saturday, February 14), we were wondering what is the record for the number of days with a 50°F or greater temperature during the month of February. You, being the “elder statesmen” of weather in Minnesota, should know!

Answer:

Mercy, I am not sure about that “elder statesmen” label. Anyway, the record is 11 days of 50°F or greater which occurred back in 2024, that Columbia, Missouri style winter in the Twin Cities. BTW for the vast majority of years in the Twin Cities climate record, the month of February has not produced any 50°F days. When it does, there are usually just 1 or 2 days. Conversely, March usually brings 5 or 6 days with 50°F or or greater temperatures, and sometimes as many as 20 such days.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 13th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February13th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily maximum temperature of -3 degrees F in 2021; lowest daily minimum temperature of -23 degrees F in 1905; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 2017, and record precipitation of 0.60 inches in 1915. Record snowfall for this date is 5.2 inches in 1909

Average dew point for February 13th is 12°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 36°F in 1983 and the minimum dew point on this date is -23 degrees F in 1971.

All-time state records for February 13th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 63 degrees F at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1990 The state record low temperature for this date is -50 degrees F at Ely 25E (St Louis County) in 2021. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 1.59 inches at Tracy (Lyon County) in 1919. A record 20.0 inches of snow fell at Pigeon River (Cook County) in 1936.

Past Weather:

The week of February 7-13 in 1897 brought snow nearly everyday to parts of Minnesota. Most areas reported between 10 inches and 16 inches of snow, while some northern areas recorded up to 2 feet of snow. In fact, some areas of northern Minnesota ended up with over 30 inches of snow for the month.

The coldest February 13th in state history was in 2021 when all parts of the state recorded subzero morning low temperatures. With over a foot of snow on the ground in northern counties, over 20 communities recorded a temperature of -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Warren (Marshall County) only made it to -18°F.

With little snow cover and bright, sunny skies the weather on February 13 of 1990 brought record high maximum temperature to many parts of western and southern Minnesota. Dozens of communities reported afternoon temperatures of 50°F or higher. At Tracy (Lyon County) after a morning low of just 4°F, the temperature climbed to a record high of 61°F by 3pm in the afternoon.

Outlook:

Mostly sunny over the weekend with daily high temperatures approaching record levels of warmth. Many areas will see 50s F. Even warmer on Monday, then increasing cloudiness for Tuesday through Thursday with cooler temperatures and chances for rain or snow. Temperatures will still run a bit above normal.