Big Swings in March Weather

Big Swings in March Weather:

Through the first third of March most climate stations in Minnesota are showing an average monthly temperature that is 5°F to 8°F above normal. In fact, many areas of the state have seen temperatures in the 50s F on several days, and over March 8th and 9th, there were multiple reports of afternoon temperatures in the 60s F, including the Twin Cities. Both Pipestone and Worthington reached 70°F, the first time since last November 15th that temperatures have reached that high in the state. Beginning on Sunday and lasting through Tuesday, temperatures will take a dive and range from 15° to 20°F below normal across the state. A rollercoaster ride in temperatures is often typical of March.

The driver for the temperature decline is a strong low-pressure system that will cross the area over Saturday and Sunday, bringing a widespread swath of snow. A few areas of the state have already picked up 4 to 8 inches of snow so far tis month, but this weekend will bring a wider distribution of snowfall. In fact, some areas from the Twin Cities to the southeastern corner of the state could pick up a month’s worth of snowfall (7-9 inches or more) over Saturday night and Sunday.

A major feature of the two storm systems this week is the wind. Very strong winds occurred with the storm system over Thursday and Friday this week bringing gusts between 50 mph and 70 mph to many areas. In fact, overnight Thursday into early Friday morning, 15 climate stations reported wind gusts of 60 mph or greater:

61 mph at Windom, Fairmont, and Olivia
62 mph at St James, New Ulm, Willmar, and Ortonville
63 mph at Preston and Rochester
64 mph at Marshall
66 mph at Appleton
67 mph at Redwood Falls
68 mph at Morris
69 mph at Benson
70 mph at Tracy

These are all extreme wind gusts for the month of March. MSP reported a wind gust of 58 mph, the highest March wind gust since 2017. In addition, the Thursday-Friday storm brought some heavy snows to northern areas of the state, especially along the north shore of Lake Superior, where observers reported 8 to 12 inches.

Not quite as extreme, but very strong wind gusts are also expected for the storm system forecasted for Saturday night into Sunday. Further the strong winds from Sunday are likely to carryover into Monday morning. Wind gusts of 50 mph are not uncommon in March across Minnesota, but wind gusts of 60 mph or greater are somewhat rare. The last time the Twin Cities reported a wind gust of 60 mph or greater in March was in 2017.

For those suffering a bit from spring fever, the expected temperature4 pattern for the end of next week is to above normal temperatures, and that pattern is expected to persist through the end of the month.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The AGU-EOS Bulletin this week features a report on 33 Stand Up for Science rallies that were held this week around the nation. These were well attended and needed in the context of the disrespect for science that pervades the current federal government administration.

The BBC reported this week that Death Valley, CA is blanketed with beautiful wild flowers. It is said to be the best display of color since 2016. The National Park Service says that the wet autumn season and wetter than normal winter helped promote the wild seeds to sprout. The color is coming just before it is expected to get quite hot there. Temperatures in the low to mid 90s F are expected towards the end of next week.

The Weather Underground reports this week that NOAA expects the current episode of La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to fade away this spring and be replaced by a transition to an El Nino episode. This El Nino forecast for later in 2026, also has a 30 percent probability of becoming a Super El Nino, stronger than most, by the end of the year.

MPR listener question:

When we moved to Minnesota a number of years ago, we relied on our neighbors to tell us what to expect from the weather. At the time, they insisted that March was usually the snowiest month, and also happened to be when the Twin Cities hosted the state high school hockey and basketball tournaments. But in our time here in the Twin Cities (18 years), March has rarely been the snowiest month. Can you tell us the story behind this seemingly false March reputation?

Answer:

The simple answer is our climate varies a lot decade by decade. From 1950 to 1990 for most areas of the state average monthly snowfall statistics showed that March was the snowiest month. Since that time March snowfall has diminished in its ranking. Since 1990, the average March snowfall ranks most commonly as the 2nd or 3rd snowiest month of the season. And this is still the case for the Twin Cities. One reason, is that we have seen an increased frequency of rainfall events in March.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 13th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 13th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 67 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1906; lowest daily minimum temperature of -9 degrees F in 1895; highest daily minimum temperature of 47 degrees F in 2016, and record precipitation of 0.78 inches in 2006. Record snowfall for this date is 9.9 inches also in 2006.

Average dew point for March 13th is 22°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1995 and the minimum dew point on this date is -11 degrees F in 1960.

All-time state records for March 13th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 77 degrees F at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1990. The state record low temperature for this date is -36 degrees F at Campbell (Wilkin County) in 1896 and at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2009. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 1.85 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1997. A record 18.0 inches of snow fell at Duluth (St Louis County) on this date in 1917.

Past Weather:

With widespread and persistent snow cover, most of Minnesota reported near record cold low temperatures on the morning of March 13 in 1896. Nearly all the state reports were subzero temperature readings, while in the northwest 8 counties reported readings of -30°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Crookston (Polk County) was only 5°F.

A major winter storm delivered a broad swath of heavy snow across Minnesota over March 12-14 in 1940. Many areas received 10 inches to 20 inches of snow, with drifts as high as 5 feet. Both Isle and Collegeville reported 22 inches of snowfall. A few areas of the state reported over 30 inches of snowfall that March.

Probably the warmest ever March 13th was in 2016 when over 90 long-term climate stations reported new record high maximum temperatures for the date. Many communities saw daytime highs reach the 60ss and 70s F. There was little or no snow on the ground and thunderstorms were reported in western Minnesota.

Outlook:

Big story for the weekend is the coming snowstorm later on Saturday and lasting through much of Sunday. This storm will mostly affect the southern two-thirds of the state. It will bring a good deal of strong wind, and windblown snow, especially on Sunday, but lingering into Monday morning as well. Snowfall amounts could easily range from 5 inches to 10 inches or more in some areas. Could be record-setting snowfalls for some southeastern communities. It will be much colder than normal for Monday through Wednesday. There may be some subzero temperatures for Tuesday morning. Then a warning trend will begin on Thursday and carry over into next weekend with warmer than normal temperatures.