Very Windy and Dry Month of May So Far

Very Windy and Dry Month of May So Far:

Through the first two weeks of May, the climate signature in Minnesota is cool, dry, and very windy. Despite the warm-up this week, average temperatures for the month so far range from 2°F to 5°F below normal, with multiple frosts having occurred in many areas. Frosts were reported as recently as May 12th (Tue) in some southern counties, and as recently as May 14th in some northern counties. Forecasts for over the weekend suggest a continuation of above normal temperatures (some 70s F and 80s F) through at least Monday before another cool-down to below normal values.

Rainfall has been significantly absent so far this month, with most places in the state reporting less than a tenth of an inch. Only a few places in northeastern and north-central Minnesota have reported rainfall between a quarter of an inch and half an inch. Rapidly moving thunderstorms brought some rain to portions of central and northern Minnesota Thursday afternoon (May 14). Several Red Flag Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service so far this month, as strong winds and very low humidity levels have prevailed over much of the landscape. There have also been some blowing dust warnings in western Minnesota where visibility for driving has been greatly reduced. MPCA issued an Air Quality Alert for west-central and northwestern counties over May 14-15, due to blowing dust making the air unhealthy. Afternoon humidity levels on May 12 and May 14 this week were as low as 14 to 19 percent in many areas.

The month of May climatologically ranks often as the 4th or 5th windiest month of the year in Minnesota. But this year will be an exception as wind speeds have been consistently very high this month, with many gusts over 50 mph at several locations. The majority of climate stations have reported 8 to 10 days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater through the first two weeks of the month. Moorhead in the Red River Valley has reported 12 such days. More strong winds are likely next week across the region as well.

Farmers have had many days in the field this week and over three-quarters of the corn acreage is planted, with oever 30 percent of the fields showing crop emergence. Over half of the soybeans have been planted with about 20 percent of the fields showing emergence.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Soccer’s World Cup matches begin next month across North America with first round games scheduled for Canada, Mexico, and the USA. The BBC Weather Center has taken a careful look at what types of severe weather may disrupt these games during the course of the months long tournament. They especially have been concerned about Heat Waves, severe thunderstorms, and Air Quality Alerts (due wildfires). One precaution taken by FIFA to protect players from excessive heat is that there will be mandatory 3-minute cooling breaks during each half of a game. For a more complete perspective of the BBC analysis of weather risks you can go to their web site.

The Weather Underground web site features a good discussion about the potential impacts of an El Nino Episode on the 2026 Hurricane Season for both the Eastern Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean (along with the Gulf of Mexico). The guidance for NOAA continues to suggest the formation of an El Nino during the summer of 2026. ENSO conditions historically boost the number of hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean but diminish the number in the Atlanctic Basin.

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a good article about how global climate extremes have already been frequent during the first half of this year and may emerge in even more headlines as El Nino develops this summer. Among features highlighted are that Arctic sea ice reached an all-time winter season low, and more than 150 million acres have already been burned in wildfires.

MPR listener question:

We have already watered our garden several times this month, using a sprinkler early in the morning. Can you tell us what has been the driest month of May in state history?

Answer:

Sure, the only two Mays when the statewide average rainfall was less than one inch were in 1900 and 1976. In 1900 the statewide average rainfall was just 0.80 inches, and in 1976 it was just 0.84 inches. In 1976 this was a precursor to the 2nd worst drought in state history, which materialized as the summer wore on with bigger and bigger rainfall deficits.

Dries Mays for selected Minnesota cities are:
MSP 0.21 inches in 1934
Rochester 0.40 inches in 1934
Morris 0.20 inches in 1928
Crookston 0.24 inches in 1917
Duluth 0.15 inches in 1976
Milan 0.12 inches in 1976
International Falls 0.07 inches in 1917
St Cloud 0.20 inches in 1900
New Ulm 0.24 inches in 1900

Twin Cities Almanac for May 15th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is.50 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 15th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 94 degrees F in 2001; lowest daily maximum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1907; lowest daily minimum temperature of 31 degrees F in 1980; highest daily minimum temperature of 70 degrees F in 2001, and record precipitation of 1.95 inches in 1911. Record snowfall for this date is 0.8 inches in 1907.

Average dew point for May 15th is 41°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 70°F in 1998 and the minimum dew point on this date is 20 degrees F in 2011.

All-time statewide records for May 15tht:

The state record high temperature for this date is.103 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) and at Sherburn (Martin County) in 2013. The state record low temperature for this date is 13 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 2004. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 4.20 inches at New London (Kandiyohi County) in 1911. A record 8.0 inches of snow fell at Mountain Iron (St Louis County) on this date in 1907.

Past Weather:

A rare May snowstorm passed across Minnesota on May 15 of 1907. The storm brought 2 to 4 inches of snowfall to many southern and central areas of the state. In the north it delivered 4 to 8 inches of snow, and some parts of St Louis County reported over 9 inches. Daily temperatures rebounded into the 60s and 70s F the day after the snowstorm.

The morning of May 15 in 2004 was a chilly one across much of central and northern Minnesota. Many climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the 20s F.  Both Tower and Embarrass reported lows in the teens F. The daily high temperature in Cook (St Louis County) only reached 39°F.

May 15 of 2013 brought record-setting high maximum temperatures to many parts of southern and western Minnesota. Temperatures reached 100°F or higher in 8 southern counties, and reached the 90s F in over 50 other counties.

Outlook:

Warm and breezy over the weekend and into Monday with chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially on Sunday and Monday. Cooler by Tuesday with direr conditions prevailing through much of next week.