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Showing posts from October, 2013

Cold week

Cold week Since last Sunday (Oct 20) temperatures around the state have been averaging from 8 to 12 degrees F cooler than normal, with many daytime high temperatures remaining in the 30s F. Brainerd tied a record cold maximum temperature value on the 21st with a reading of just 35 degrees F, while Grand Rapids tied their record cold maximum temperature value for that date with a reading of just 33 degrees F. In fact over the 22nd and 23rd some observers reported high temperatures that remained below freezing including 31 degrees F at Isabella, Bemidji, and Embarrass, and just a 30 degrees F high at Grand Marais Airport. Embarrass reported back to back lows of just 20 degrees F on the 21st and 22nd, and then just 19 degrees F on the 25th. Surprisingly, the state's lowest temperatures this week came from southeastern Minnesota where Zumbrota and Preston reported just 19 degrees F on the 22nd, while Byron reported 18 degrees F on the 23rd, setting a new record low readin…

New Seasonal Outlook from NOAA-Climate Prediction Center

New Seasonal Outlook from NOAA-Climate Prediction Center The NOAA-CPC released new seasonal climate outlooks on Thursday this week, covering the period from November through January. Their forecast tools are still giving no strong evidence for above or below normal categories of temperature or precipitation to dominate in Minnesota. Some of their models favor an above normal temperature pattern in parts of southern Minnesota over the calendar period, but not elsewhere in the state. Thus it appears that the models are very uncertain on what type of winter weather pattern we may have. They also released a drought outlook for the period through January 31st and although their models see continued alleviation of drought due to above normal precipitation in October, they also favor persistence of drought in some areas of Minnesota through January.

A missed forecast Last Friday I spoke on Morning Edition with Cathy Wurzer about the prospect for widespread frost that would end th…

Warm and wet start to October

Warm and wet start to October Most observers are reporting a warm, wet start to October. Average temperature for the first ten days of the month is ranging from 3 to 6 degrees F warmer than normal in most places. In fact 9 of the first 10 days of the month have recorded above normal daily temperatures with many afternoon highs in the 70s F. Most agricultural counties in Minnesota have yet to report an autumn killing frost, extending the growing season. The warm temperatures have also helped reduce the harvest moisture of crops, lessening farmer drying costs prior to storage.

Many Minnesota climate observers are already reporting above normal rainfall for the month of October, some as a result of record-setting daily amounts on October 3rd (reported in last week's WeatherTalk newsletter). Several communities have reported 2 or more inches this month including Browns Valley, Brainerd, Mora, Worthington, Albert Lea, Mankato, New Ulm, Waseca, and Rochester. In sout…

Very dry air to start October

Very dry air to start October The first two days of October were dominated by a warm and dry air mass. How dry was it? Well afternoon relative humidity fell off into the teens and twenties on both October 1st and 2nd, with very low dewpoints (in the 20s and 30s F). Some extremely low afternoon relative humidity values included 12 percent at St James, 17 percent at Luverne, 18 percent at Tracy, and 19 percent at Fairmont. Such low values of relative humidity are somewhat common in October, especially in dry years and after the state crop acreage has matured and dried out. The first week of October in 2011 brought similar values of relative humidity with many readings in the teens, and back in October of 1999 places like Faribault and Litchfield reported relative humidity of just 7 and 8 percent, respectively.

Combined with gusty winds the dry weather produced some rather high evaporation rates for this time of year, ranging from 0.2 to 0.3 inches per day.

Wet period…