Minnesota WeatherTalk

Warm Climate This January: It looks like this January may end up among the 5 warmest in state history based on statewide climate data so far. Through two-thirds of the month temperatures are running from 8 to 17 degrees F above normal. The last ten days of the month will not all be warmer than normal, but a mixture of above and below normal values. This will mean that the average temperature for January in Minnesota may not be as cold as December was. Nevertheless, we can anticipate a period of three consecutive months with monthly mean temperatures above normal. The persistence of warmer than normal temperatures has been so strong that the November through January period may end up among the 5 warmest historically as well. It is somewhat unusual to have this persistent warmth during a La Nina period (cold surface waters) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is somewhat like what happened with Minnesota November through January temperatures being warmer than normal during the La

 Warm Signature Persistence: Since November 1st 75 to 80 percent of all days have brought warmer than normal temperatures to most parts of Minnesota. This is unusual persistence of warmth in terms of longevity (75 days) and rivals the similar November through January of 2015-2016, which started a very warm year for Minnesota (2016 was the 5th warmest year in state history). The other unusual aspect of the warmth has been the amplitude or wide deviation from normal. International Falls has been measuring temperatures that are 20 to 25 degrees F above normal so far this month. In fact for the entire first half of January the nation’s “Ice Box” has seen an average temperature that is over 19 degrees F above normal. Back in November (2020) over the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th new statewide daily maximum temperatures records were set (all 80 degrees F or higher). Daytime high temperatures were running over 30°F above normal during this time. Statistically this is a rare amplified aberratio

Warm Start to 2021: The persistent warmth which started in November and carried on in December is continuing into the year 2021. For the first full week of the year temperatures have average 8 to 17 degrees F above normal across the state, with the largest deviations in northern Minnesota. International Falls has seen daily deviations as high as 26°F above normal. The largest daily deviation from normal temperatures occurred on January 4th. In fact, some daily record temperature values were set that day within the state climate network. New daytime maximum temperature records were reported from several locations, including: 45°F at Cass Lake 40°F at Kabetogama 39°F at Hibbing 38°F at International Falls Forecasts for next week also suggest some warmer than normal temperatures will prevail, so we may see a few more records fall. Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Conference (MCAP) The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership (MCAP) has announced that the Annual Statewide Co