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Friday, December 29, 2017

Cold Conclusion to December

Cold Conclusion to December:


Cold weather dominated Minnesota and much of the nation for the last week of December. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation on 7 days during the month of December (so far). For the Twin Cities the week between Christmas Day and New Years Eve will be one of the coldest since 1886. On Christmas Day Wind Chill values at places like Orr, International Falls, and Warroad ranged from -40 to -45 degrees F. Both Kabetogama and Cotton set new record lows on December 28th with readings of -40°F and -42°F, respectively. International Falls reported a new record cold maximum temperature for December 26th with a reading of -12°F, while Embarrass and Pokegama Dam only "warmed up" to -18°F that day setting records for cold maximum temperatures. At International Falls a new record cold minimum for December 27th was set with a reading of -37°F. Even more cold temperature records may be reported over December 30-31 this weekend. Thankfully towards the end of the first week in January temperatures are expected to moderate back closer to normal values.

Preliminary Climate Summary for December:


Despite a near equal distribution of days with above normal and below normal temperatures, the month of December will end up colder than normal across the state, only the third month this year (along with May and August) with a mean monthly temperature that was cooler than normal. Most of the warmth came early in the month. Over the first four days of the month temperatures averaged 15 to 20 degrees F warmer than normal. During this time 19 new daily maximum temperature records and 12 new daily warm minimum temperature records were set within the state climate network. Conversely, the last week of the month, beginning with Christmas Day (25th) brought temperatures that ranged from 15 to 24 degrees F cooler than normal. In fact a few spots reported the coldest Christmas Day maximum temperature in their climate records, including -12°F at Park Rapids and -11°F at Hibbing and Ely. Over the period from December 25-28 at least 31 new record daily low minimum temperature records were set and over 40 new record cold daily maximum temperature reocrds were set. Extremes for the month ranged from 61°F on the 4th at Minnesota City, Hastings, and Zumbrota to -42°F at Cotton on the 28th. Over 20 climate stations reported an extreme minimum temperature of -30 degrees F or colder.

Overall December precipitation was generally less than normal, with many places reporting less than half an inch. Snowfall was near normal in nothern parts of the state, typically ranging from 10 to 16 inches, while in the southern part of the state snowfall was less than normal. Portions of St Louis, Lake, and Cook counties in the northeast received over 19 inches for the month. Only the far northern counties had over 8 inches of snow depth.

Several days produced wind gusts over 30 mph, and on the 4th of the month a number of western climate stations reported wind gusts over 50 mph.

Looking Back at the Weather of 2017, Part Two:


Of all the months in 2017 February was the most anomalous. It was the 5th warmest February in state history (back to 1895). There were 285 new daily high maximum temperature records set and 148 new daily warm minimum temperature records set within the climate observer network. Minneapolis Crystal Airport hit 70 degrees F on February 19th, one of only a few times in Minnesota history that the thermometer has hit 70°F during the month of February.

The three tornadoes reported on March 6th (in Freeborn, Faribault, and Sherburne Counties) were the earliest on the calendar ever reported in Minnesota history. Fortunately they produced relatively modest damage.

June 11 brought one of the most damaging hail storms in years across portions of southern and central Minnesota. Many areas reported golf ball size hail stones.
The strongest convective thunderstorms of the year occurred over August 16-17 when Redwood Falls reported a new state record rainfall of 9.45 inches and 8 tornadoes were reported as well. Many climate stations reported rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 6 inches with widespread street flooding.

It was an unusual growing season in terms of temperature pattern, showing below average number of days with 90 degrees F temperatures, and one of only nine years in Twin Cities history when there were no days in August with 90°F temperatures, but then they occurred a month later during September.

Of final note, the Minnesota State Climatology Office Facebook page is conducting a survey to vote on the top five Minnesota weather stories of 2017. If you wish to vote please go to the SCO Facebook page.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


Continental snow cover maps are available from NOAA and can be viewed on-line for any calendar interval. Currently the snow cover across the continental USA is below normal for this time of year, with many states reporting below normal snow depths.


New research from the AGU suggests that algae growth on the Greenland ice sheet may be reducing its reflectivity significantly and affecting the rate of melting more than earlier thought. In fact, the algae growth on the ice may be contributing more to the melting that accumulation dust or black carbon.

While the Great Lakes Region has been experiencing colder than normal temperatures recently, Alaska has been recording an exceptionally warm month of December with daily temperatures averaging about 15 degrees F above normal. So far over 200 new daily maximum temperature records have been set this month within the Alaska climate network.


A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters and highlighted by the AGU suggests that anthropogenic climate change may be impacting the frequency of summer droughts in the midlatitudes.

MPR listener question:

This holiday season between Christmas Day and New Years Eve is the coldest I can remember in the Twin Cities. Has there ever been a year when the average temperature for this week was below zero degrees F in the Twin Cities?

Answer:

Indeed it appears that the week between Christmas Day and New Years Eve this year will deliver an average Twin Cities temperature that is below zero degrees F, perhaps on the order of -2 to -4 degrees F. This is rare territory in Twin Cities climate statistics. Only three years have brought temperature conditions that averaged below zero degrees F during the week between Christmas Day and New Years Eve in the Twin Cities. Those years were 1880 (-0.6°F), 1886 (-4.7°F), and 1924 (-1.8°F).

Twin Cities Almanac for December 29th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 29th:

MSP records for this date include: highest da9thy maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of -4 degree F in 1909; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 0.80 inches in 1972. Record snowfall on this date is 4.4 inches in 1889.

Average dew point for December 29th is 7°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 40°F in 1936; and the minimum dew point on this date is -24°F in 1976.

All-time state records for December 29th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 61 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1999; the all-time state low for today's date is -47 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1917. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.55 inches at Farmington (Dakota County) in 1982. Record snowfall is 16.0 inches also at Farmington (Daktoa County) in 1982.

Past Weather Conditions:


Bitter cold dominated the state on December 29, 1887. Northern and western Minnesota communities reported temperatures ranging from -35 to -40 degrees F, while as far south as Rochester the temperature was -29°F. The daytime high temperature at Moorhead was only -11 degrees F.

The coldest December 29 in state history occurred in 1917. Morning low temperatures of -30 degrees F or colder were reported from 50 communities across the state. The temperature never rose above -18 degrees F at Ada (Norman County), making for one of the coldest days in history there.

A large winter storm brought heavy snowfall to parts of southwestern and central Minnesota over December 27-29, 1982. Snowfall amounts ranged from 8 to 18 inches and many roads were closed for a time.

December 29, 1999 was the warmest in state history. Over 30 communities reported an afternoon high temperature of 50 degrees F or greater. Redwood Falls and Milan reached 60 degrees F, while Montevideo set a state record for the date with 61 degrees F. Some western Minnesota citizens enjoyed an outdoor lunch.


Outlook:


Generally dry, clear, and cold over New Year’s Weekend, with temperatures from 15 to 20 degrees below normal. It may be the coldest New Year's Eve since 1992. Some moderation in temperature is seen by Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs in the single digits and teens. There will be a gradual warming to near normal temperatures by next weekend.








Friday, December 22, 2017

Oscillating December Temperatures and 2017 Climate Review

Oscillating December Temperatures and 2017 Climate Review:


Through the first three weeks of this month most climate observers have reported average December temperatures that range from 3 to 7 degrees warmer than normal. With the projected colder than normal weather dominating the Christmas to New Year’s Day time period, it appears that by the end of the month most climate stations will find that December mean temperatures have balanced out close to normal. Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the nation only twice so far this month, but is likely to see this frequency increase over the last ten days of the month. This oscillating temperature pattern is what balanced out the month of November as well, expect the first half of the month was exceptionally cold and the second half of the month exceptionally warm.

January may continue this oscillating pattern as it starts out colder than normal, then moderates mid-month and may even warm to above normal during the second half of the month.

Looking Back at 2017:


With most of the year in the rear view mirror now perhaps a look backward would be appropriate. The year 2017 is likely to end up among the ten warmest in state history. Both Granite Falls and Browns Valley recorded temperatures of 100 degrees F (July 17). Overall, only the months of May and August were colder than normal. Within the statewide climate network over 600 new daily maximum temperature records were set, while over 600 new daily warm minimum temperature records were set during the year. Most of these records were in the months of January, February, and September. Relatively few new low temperature records were set during the year. Coldest temperatures reported during the year were in mid-January when Blackduck, Celina, Embarrass, and Cotton reported lows of -40 degrees F or colder. A reading of -46°F at Cotton (St Louis County) on January 14th was the coldest reading of the year.

Most climate stations reported a wetter than normal year in 2017, but not anything close to a record value. Geographically the northwestern and north-central portions of the state reported less than normal precipitation for the year, while the rest of the state, especially northeastern and southeastern counties were well above normal. Among the long term climate stations in the state only Minnesota City (Winona County) reported a new record wet year with a precipitation total over 49 inches. A few climate stations in northwestern Minnesota reported less than 20 inches for the year. Within the state climate network over 500 new daily precipitation records were set, with the most occurring in the month of October, so wet that it delayed the corn harvest. The heaviest thunderstorm of the year occurred on August 16 when several observers reported over 5 inches of rain, and Redwood Falls reported 8.12 inches, a new statewide record for the date.

Ice dominated the weather headlines during January and February, especially in the southern half of the state where there were hundreds of auto accidents as well as pedestrian injuries reported. During these months at least six days brought rain, instead of snow, but then the rain froze overnight, leaving a coating of ice for the morning commute.

According to Warning Coordination Meteorologist Todd Krause of the National Weather Service, Minnesota reported 61 tornadoes this year, a larger than normal number. This is preliminary as the final report for 2017 is not finished.

Despite a rainy first few days, the weather during the State Fair (Aug 24 to Sep 4) was very favorable with comfortable temperatures, low humidity, and light winds. As a result a new record attendance was set with 1,997,320 people spending time there.

More on the weather headlines of the year will be in next weeks WeatherTalk Blog.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


Much of the state received snowfall on December 21 though a section in the middle of Minnesota only received a dusting. In the northern third of the state reports ranged from just an inch to over 8 inches in some parts of Hubbard, Cook, and Carlton Counties, while 2 to 5 inches of snow fell across some southern counties. Pipestone reported 5.3 inches.

JakeCrouch of NOAA offers an interesting glimpse at climate trends across the nation in a blog post this week. Minnesota happens to show some of the strongest upward trends in both temperature and precipitation among all the states in the USA.


In the Western Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Tembin will bring large waves, strong winds, and heavy rains to portions of Vietnam and Thailand over the coming Christmas holiday. Winds are expected to 70 mph or greater and sea waves may exceed 20 feet with this storm.

MPR listener question:


We just moved to the Twin Cities from Florida this autumn and look forward to having our first White Christmas. But what is with these subzero overnight temperature forecasts between Christmas and New Years Eve? Is that the normal around here?"

Answer:


For the Twin Cities we usually get at least one subzero temperature reading between Christmas and New Year’s Day 75 percent of the time (back to 1872). It has been as cold as -39°F on Christmas Day (1879) and as cold as -30°F on New Years Day (1974). But since 2002 only 4 years have brought overnight subzero temperatures to the Twin Cities between Christmas Day and New Years Day, and in 2011 the day after Christmas reached a high of 52°F. So we have certainly been experiencing a trend toward milder temperatures during the holiday season. This year will obviously been different, as the forecast calls for several nights to drop below zero.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 22nd:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 22nd:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1890; lowest daily maximum temperature of -12 degree F in 1983; lowest daily minimum temperature of -20 degrees F in 1983; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 1877; record precipitation of 0.52 inches in 1968. Record snowfall on this date is 7.6 inches in 1968.

Average dew point for December 22nd is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 1941; and the minimum dew point on this date is -32°F in 1983.

All-time state records for December 22nd:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 62 degrees F at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1899; the all-time state low for today's date is -44 degrees F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1963. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 1.30 inches at Glencoe (McLeod County) in 1920. Record snowfall is 16.0 inches at Artichoke Lake (Big Stone County) in1968.

Word of the Week: Snowcreep


This word does not refer to the guy who just put a snowball down the back of your neck, nor is it the snowplow driver who just cleared the alley by pushing all the snow onto your driveway. It is a term used to describe the slow, continuous downhill movement of a snowfield or mass of snow on a slope. Most often associated with mountainous areas, this feature can also be observed on less topographic terrain as well, such as the ridges of the Lake Superior shoreline, or the Mississippi River Valley in southeastern Minnesota.

Past Weather Features:


Very warm weather occurred on December 22, 1877. Temperatures were in the 50s F across southern Minnesota and even the mid 40s F in Duluth. Later in the day rain fell across most of the state, making for a muddy Christmas season.

Another very warm December 22nd occurred in 1899 as over 25 climate stations reported daytime highs ranging from 45 to 55 degrees F. The temperature reached 62 degrees F at Two Harbors, an unusual day indeed.

The coldest December 22nd in state history occurred in 1963 when over a dozen climate stations reported morning lows of -30°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) in the Red River Valley only reached -10°F.

A strong winter storm brought heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the state over December 21-22, 1968. Many areas of the state received 8 to 16 inches of snow, and 40 mph winds created some huge drifts and road closures. Over 40 climate observers reported new snowfall records on the 22nd.

The week of December 17-24, 1983 was one of the coldest in Minnesota history. Many climate stations reported average weekly temperatures that were 30 to 35 degrees F colder than normal. The average temperature for the week in the Twin Cities was -14°F. Over 35 climate stations reported minimum temperatures of -40°F or colder, while Tower and Mora reported -52°F. Many wind chill readings were -60 degrees F or colder.

Outlook:


Generally dry over the Christmas weekend, but with temperatures well below normal. Monday and Tuesday will be the coldest days next week with many daytime high temperatures remaining below zero F. There will be some moderation in temperature towards the end of next week, but remaining colder than normal. Slight chance for snow on Wednesday and Thursday.






Friday, December 15, 2017

Mixed climate patterns in December

Mixed climate patterns in December:


After an extraordinary warm start, with scores of record high temperature values set on the 4th of the month, December has been tracking with alternating periods of below and above normal temperatures. Overall through the first half of the month most climate stations are showing average temperature values that range from 4 to 8 degrees F warmer than normal, a trend that is likely to make December the 10th month of 2017 with above normal temperatures. Over 60 climate stations so far have reported subzero low temperatures on at least one day this month, with a minimum of -19°F near Ely earlier this week on the 12th. Embarrass was -15°F on that date as well. Eveleth reported -9°F on December 8th, the coldest in the nation.

Most observers have so far reported anywhere from 5 to 7 days with measurable snowfalls, mostly light in amounts from a dusting up to 1 inch. Though most climate observers have reported a total of just 1 to 4 inches so far this month, some northern climate stations have reported over 10 inches, including Kabetogama, Ely, Isabella, and Baudette.

Nocturnal Character of Winter Storms:


Frequencies of hourly precipitation from the Twin Cities climate records show some interesting daily patterns with respect to the onset of winter storms. Patterns in the hourly frequencies of precipitation do vary by month. In the winter months, December through February, the afternoon hours from noon to 4:00 pm show the lowest relative frequency of measured precipitation. Overnight frequencies of hourly precipitation are relatively higher, especially from 1 am to 6 am. This could be due to the relationship between temperature and the saturation of the air. Low temperatures usually occur during these overnight and predawn hours and probably remain closer to the dew point temperature, preserving the structure and continuity of precipitation, whether droplets, sleet or snow crystals. The other feature of winter storm systems to remember is that they are usually large and take some time to move across the area. Precipitation may last for several hours and since most of our 24 hour calendar day is in darkness during the winter, we associate the storminess with the night.

Reminder of Mn/DOT's winter driving tips:


Call 511 or go to www.511mn.org before departing on a trip to get current road conditions
Drive with headlights on and seat belt fastened
Turn off cruise control
Drive at slower speeds, and keep greater distance between vehicles
Never drive into a snow cloud
Respect snowplows, and stay on the road behind them


Weekly Weather Potpourri:


In the Western Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kai-Tak was spinning southeast of the Philippines and expected to bring rain, strong winds, and high seas to portions of that country by this coming Sunday. It was not expected to strengthen into a typhoon.

The BBC reported this week on a project to map the continent of Greenland and how it would appear without any ice cover. The animated map depictions shows river valleys and mountain ranges underneath the massive ice sheet, which represents a volume of ice that is calculated to be 2.9 million cubic km (about 700,000 cubic miles).

Scientists from Ohio State University have collaborated with scientists from China to extract the largest ice core ever from a non-polar region. They extracted a 1000 foot long ice core from the Tibetan mountains and hope to reconstruct temperature and climate behavior over the past 600,000 years. So far their early results suggest a rapid increase in temperature and precipitation over the past 50 years or so.

A recent paper from scientists at the Universityof Colorado suggests that climate change may dictate a shift in the geographic deployment of wind energy technologies. Their studies of model depicted climate change suggest that wind power resources (based on estimate changes in mean wind speeds) in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere may decline over the next century or so, while wind power resources may increase in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics.


There is an interesting article by NOAA’s Deke Arndt this week about the changing climate on the North Slope of Alaska. Climate change is much more accelerated and significant there according to recent measurements.

MPR listener question:


I am doing a Science Fair Project for school about snowfall and wanted to know how often December is the snowiest month of the snow season (Oct-Apri) for the Twin Cities? I am guessing that it is less than a third of the time.

Answer:


Since 1884 when the Twin Cities daily snowfall record began, December has been the snowiest month of the snow season (Oct-Apr) 31 times (23 percent). If you want the rest of the historical distribution it goes like this......

November 15 times (11 percent)
December 31 times (23 percent)
January 36 times (27 percent)
February 17 times (13 percent)
March 29 times (22 percent)
April 5 times (4 percent)

BTW from 2007 to 2011 December was the snowiest month every winter. You can read more about Twin Cities snowfall record at the Minnesota State Climatology Office web site.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 15th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 15th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 2014; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degree F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of -21 degrees F in 1901; highest daily minimum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1928; record precipitation of 0.71 inches in 1902. Record snowfall on this date is 7.0 inches in 1902.

Average dew point for December 15th is 10°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 39°F in 1928; and the minimum dew point on this date is -22°F in 1963.

All-time state records for December 15th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 60 degrees F at Marshall, Springfield, and Tracy in 1939 and again at Canby in 1998; the all-time state low for today's date is -47 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1901. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.25 inches at Grand Rapids (Itasca County) in 1893. Record snowfall is 14.6 inches at Rockford (Wright County) in 1996.

Past Weather Features:


We know from the Ft Snelling clmate record that December of 1855 was no picnic. Well, actually maybe you could have had a picnic during the first days of the month as temperatures reached the mid 40s F. But following that mild spell a series of arctic fronts descended across the region bringing measurable snowfalls on nine days and an especially heavy snow at mid month. Friday and Saturday, December 15th and 16th brought snow "with flakes as big as a featherbed" totaling 8 to 12 inches around the St Paul area. Sleighing was said to be excellent as total snowfall amounted to 22 inches for the month. The fresh snow cover and arctic air produced one of the coldest Christmas Eves in Minnesota history with a reading of -33 degrees F at Ft Snelling, -36 degrees F at St Paul, and -38 degrees F elsewhere in southern portions of the state. So after a teasing, mild start what a bitter month it turned out to be.

A rare December rain occurred across southern Minnesota on December 15, 1894. With daytime temperatures in the 40s and low 50s F and no snow on the ground, rainfall amounts ranging from half an inch to 1.50 inches (at St Peter and New Ulm) were observed across the southern half of the state.

On December 15, 1901 an Arctic air mass brought record cold to the state. Over 20 climate stations reported minimum temperatures of -30°F or colder, while the daytime high at Pine River Dam only reached a reading of -12°F.

On December 15, 1919 another Arctic air mass brought record-setting cold temperatures to parts of Minnesota. Over 30 climate stations reported a minimum of -30 degrees F, including Rochester in southern Minnesota. The daytime high at Roseau and Hallock was just -15°F with 10 inches of snow on the ground.

A strong winter storm brought 6-15 inches of snow to many parts of Minnesota on December 15, 1996. Snowplows were kept busy into the night trying to keep roads and highways open. Many climate stations reported over 30 inches of snow that month, and Two Harbors received 49 inches.

By far the warmest December 15th on a statewide basis was in 1998. Over 60 climate stations reported a daytime high of 50 degrees F or greater. Even as far north as Gunflint Lake reached a high of 52°F. The temperature never dropped below 36°F at Winona and Minnesota City along the Mississippi River Bluff Country.

Outlook:


Temperatures a few degrees warmer than normal for the weekend and early next week, with some highs above the freezing mark on Monday and Tuesday. An increasing chance for snow later on Wednesday and into Thursday, followed by cooler than normal temperatures towards the end of the week.

 

Friday, December 8, 2017

Winter Returns

Winter Returns:


This week the Minnesota State Climatology Office posted the headline "Winter Returns" referring to the snow and cold front that dominated the state over December 4-5.

Prior to the passage of the cold front during the afternoon and evening of Monday, December 4th many climate stations reported new record high temperatures for the date, including: Rochester and Austin with 64°F; Albert Lea and Theilman with 63°F; Grand Meadow with 62°F; Minnesota City, Fairmont, Hastings, Caledonia, Winnebago, Waseca and Winona with 61°F, Amboy, Red Wing, and Preston with 60°F; Rosemount with 59°F; La Crescent with 58°F, MSP with 57°F, and a number of other places as well. In addition MSP reported a new record high dew point on December 4th of 55°F, and the 2nd highest dew point ever reported in the month of December (only a dew point of 57°F on December 5, 2001 was higher). With the high temperatures and high dew points during the afternoon a few thunderstorms developed across areas of southern Minnesota (Red Wing among others), and rainfall amounts of 0.20 to 0.40 inches were reported from some areas.

As the cold front advanced, precipitation turned over to snowfall and many areas reported from 2 to 4 inches of snowfall with this weather system, but the most outstanding features that got people's attention were the strong winds and the dramatic temperature drop. Most areas reported wind gusts over 40 mph and some areas reported winds as high as 50-55 mph. The temperature drops caught a number of citizens unprepared and rushing for their winter parkas. While the temperature dropped 30 degrees F in the Twin Cities with the passage of the cold front late in the day, many other areas saw greater temperature drop. For example at Winnebago the temperature dropped from 60°F to 15°F (45 degree drop), while at Grand Meadow, Owatonna, and Waseca the temperature dropped 47 degrees, and at Albert Lea and Austin it dropped 48 and 49 degrees, respectively.

With the fresh snow cover, high pressure, and clear skies temperatures remained well below normal most of the week. On the morning of December 7th (Thursday) Fosston reported -6°F and Cotton reported -4°F. At least a dozen other northern Minnesota communities reported subzero temperatures as well. Many southern and western Minnesota climate stations reported their coldest temperatures since last winter, including 5°F at Browns Valley, 4°F at Montevideo, Wheaton, Lakefield, and Kimball, 3°F at Otter Tail and Worthington, and just 2°F at Pipestone.

With the colder temperatures soils are starting to freeze up again as they did for a brief time last month. At the two-inch depth soil temperatures dipped into the upper 20s and low 30s F by Thursday of this week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


On Thursday of this week winter storm Caroline brought strong winds and large waves to portions of western and northern Scotland. Wind gusts from 70 to 90 mph and large sea waves closed coastal highways, as well as schools in areas of Scotland. There were a number of power outages and rail and ferry services were disrupted during the storm, one of the strongest to hit portions of the UK in recent months. Some snow and ice was expected for some areas on the back side of the storm as it moved east on Friday.

Wildfires burning in the hills surrounding Los Angeles, and scattered elsewhere along the California coast down towards San Diego made the headlines this week as there were widespread evacuations, and the loss of a number of homes and commercial properties. Downtown Los Angeles has only received 0.11 inches of rain since October 1st, the 11th driest start to the Water Year (Oct 1 to Sep 30) in history there. The National Weather Service was continuing to release Red Flag Warnings Wednesday and Thursday of this week as relative humidity values ranged from only 5 to 15 percent and Santa Ana winds were gusting to 30-40 mph in places. The Weather Underground was continuing to issue updates on these fires as well.


A winter storm was bringing snow to portions of Georgia, especially higher elevations on Friday (Dec 8), with forecasts of amounts up to 3 inches in some places. The Winter Storm Warning, somewhat rare for this time of year, was in effect for areas from Rome to Blairsville where travel was difficult on untreated roads. A rare snow was also reported in southern Texas this week.
A recent study by the USDA Forest Service shows that California has the lowest urban tree canopy cover per capita of any state. With the ecosystem services provided by tree canopies this is an area where urban settings could be improved a great deal. This study provides motivation for urban planners to consider ways to improve and diversify tree canopies in some of California's urban communities.

MPR listener question:


Earlier this week at Waseca we saw a 47 degree temperature drop in less than 24 hours. What is the record 24-hour temperature drop in Minnesota history?

Answer:


According to my book, Minnesota Weather Almanac, the largest drop in temperature over a 24-hour period occurred at Lamberton, MN on April 3, 1982 when following a daytime high of 78 degrees F, the temperature dropped to just 7 degrees F overnight, a decline of 71 degrees.

MPR listener question:


After hearing the piece about the impact road salt runoff has on ponds, lakes, and rivers, I began to wonder if the increased salinity of lakes and rivers causes a [later] freeze up time [date]. I have noticed that the pond behind our house takes longer to freeze than it did when we first moved here in 1998. I think some of the later freeze time is related to climate change...but does the increased salinity also add to the later freeze time?

Answer:


I am no expert on water chemistry, but according to the NOAA National Snow and Ice Data Center the freezing point of water drops by half a degree F for each increase in salinity of 5 ppt (parts per thousand). In the Arctic Ocean where the salinity content is about 35 ppt the water begins to freeze at 28.8 degrees F. It seems to me that for smaller bodies of water like your pond, increased salinity from runoff into the pond may be a factor in the later date of freeze up. But for lakes and rivers in our state I think climate change is the primary driver of later freeze up dates. Consider this, over the 20 years since 1998 (the year you moved into your home) 18 of those years have brought a warmer than normal autumn season (Sep-Nov), and 8 of those autumn seasons rank among the 10 warmest in state history back to 1895. On that evidence alone it is no wonder you have been observing later freeze up dates.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 8th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 15 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 8th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1939 and 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of -6 degree F in 1927; lowest daily minimum temperature of -22 degrees F in 1876; highest daily minimum temperature of 40 degrees F in 1907; record precipitation of 0.44 inches in 1963, 1987, and 1995. Record snowfall on this date is 7.1 inches in 1995.

Average dew point for December 8th is 13°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 46°F in 1946; and the minimum dew point on this date is -20°F in 1978.

All-time state records for December 8th:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 67 degrees F at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 1913; the all-time state low for today's date is -38 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1932 and again at Brimson (St Louis County) in 2013. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.02 inches at Babbitt (St Louis County) in 1924. Record snowfall is 14.0 inches at Isabella (Lake County) in 1969.

Past Weather Features:


A major winter storm brought widespread heavy snow to the state over December 7-9, 1969. Many climate stations reported 10-20 inches of snowfall and in some areas schools were closed or started late. Duluth reported 21 inches of snow on their way to 38.8 inches for the month. On a statewide basis it was one of the snowiest Decembers in history.

December 8, 1990 was arguably the warmest in history on a statewide basis as over 40 Minnesota communities reported a daytime high of 50 degrees F or greater. A few places in western Minnesota topped 60 degrees F, under bright sunny skies and a south wind.

The coldest December 8th in state history was just 4 years ago in 2013. Arctic high pressure gripped the state and except for a few isolated areas of southeastern Minnesota, all observers were reporting subzero temperature readings. Over 70 climate stations reported morning lows of -20 degrees F or colder. Even the daytime temperature rose no higher than -11°F at Detroit Lakes and Hallock.

Outlook:


Partly cloudy over the weekend with warming temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be warmer than normal. A chance for snow late on Sunday and into early Monday. Then cooler temperatures again for Monday through Thursday of next week, though temperatures will be near normal. Little chance for precipitation over that time period.

Friday, December 1, 2017

November climate summary

November climate summary:


Precipitation was generally below normal across Minnesota during the month of November, while the temperature pattern was mixed with average monthly temperatures that were cooler than normal in the north and slightly warmer than normal in much of the south. The other contrast was in cloudiness, which was dominant the first half of the month, then there were many long spells of sunshine during the second half of the month.

The first two weeks of the month were the coldest since November of 1995, but then temperatures moderated the rest of the month, with several days bringing daytime highs in the 50s and 60s F. The last week of the month was about 12°F warmer than average in most Minnesota communities. Extreme temperature values for the month were 65 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County) on the 27th, and -17 degrees F at Camp Norris (Lake of the Woods county) on the 24th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation four times during the month.

Well over 95 percent of all climate stations in Minnesota reported a drier than normal month. Many climate observers reported less than half an inch of precipitation for the month and some were close to a record low amount. For example Windom (Cottonwood County) reported just 0.04 inches of precipitation for the month, Worthington (Nobles County) just 0.01 inches, and Faribault (Rice county) just 0.09 inches, all of which represent their 2nd driest November in history. Amboy (Blue Earth County) reported its driest November ever with 0.03 inches of precipitation. The overall lack of precipitation helped farmers wrap up chores like a late corn harvesting season, soil testing, applying fall nitrogen, and spreading manure. A few northeastern Minnesota climate stations reported over 1.5 inches of precipitation for the month, stilll a very modest total.

The most significant snowfalls for the month occurred during the first week when several northern climate stations received over 6 inches. Places like Orr, Cook, Isabella, Gunflint Lake, Ely, and Thorhult received over a foot of snow. International Falls reported measurable snowfall on 7 days, totaling 11.9 inches.

One other climate feature of November worth noting - strong winds. Most observers reported at least 10 days with wind gusts over 30 mph. Both Moorhead and Mankato reported wind gusts over 50 mph on at least one day.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


In a new study from the Minnesota Sea Grant scientists in Duluth they find that some clear and seemingly clean inland lakes are actually so loaded with agricultural nutrients that algae cannot grow in them, leaving the water looking clear, but of impaired water quality. The excessive nutrient levels in these lakes happen as a result of heavy rains, or snowmelt washing phosphorus and nitrogen from agricultural fields, feed lots, or urban centers into the drainage areas that feed some inland lakes.


NOAA scientists reported recently that the extent of autumn sea ice around Alaska is the lowest ever measured. This is part of an ongoing trend in the data since 2001, and is also suggested to be a sign of climate change in that region.


Recent research from the University of WesternOntario examined the use of high-altitude turbulence radar measurements to detect tornado signatures. They found evidence in their data that may allow forecasters to predict tornado formation up to 20 minutes earlier than with current forecasting techniques.


Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is churning in the Indian Ocean with wind gusts to 100 mph and sea waves over 20ft. It is expected to bring heavy rains to western parts of India near Mumbai by the end of the weekend and early next week.

MPR listener question:


I know that complete ice formation on Minnesota inland lakes is late this year (again). When do you think we will see a streak of weather that causes our lakes to ice-in enough for ice fishing?

Answer:


As is so often the case in recent years, you will have to be patient. Please use the MN-DNR web site to periodically check for ice cover on your favorite lakes and remember the recommendation for safe ice fishing on foot is thickness of at least 4 inches. It looks like we will have a spell of good "ice-making weather" starting next Wednesday and running into the following weekend, as daytime highs will track in the 20s F and nighttime lows in the single digits.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 1st:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 1st:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1998; lowest daily maximum temperature of 1 degree F in 1919; lowest daily minimum temperature of -15 degrees F in 1893; highest daily minimum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1962; record precipitation of 0.83 inches in 1985. Record snowfall on this date is 8.4 inches in 1985.

Average dew point for December 1st is 18°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 49°F in 1982; and the minimum dew point on this date is -17°F in 1930.

All-time state records for December 1st:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 70 degrees F at Chaska (Carver County) in 1998; the all-time state low for today's date is -51 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1896. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.12 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 1985. Record snowfall is 16.0 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1985.

Past Weather Features:


Following a strong winter storm over Thanksgiving week in 1896, December of that year began under an Arctic high pressure system that brought record cold on the 1st. Ten northern climate stations began the day at -30°F or colder. The temperature never rose higher than -16°F at Crookston (Polk County) that day.

By far the warmest December 1st in state history was in 1998. Over 40 climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures of 60 degrees F or greater, topped by 70°F at Chaska. Though it was a Tuesday, a work day, many people played hooky to go golfing, as many southern Minnesota golf courses were open that day. Temperatures over the first three days of that December average over 20 degrees F above normal

A winter storm brought high winds and a mixture of precipitation to Eastern South Dakota and portions of southern Minnesota over November 30 to December 1, 1981. Many roads and highways, including portions of Interstate 90 were closed for a time. Observers across southern Minnesota reported 8 to 14 inches of snowfall. Blizzard conditions with winds as high as 50 mph were reported in many western areas.

Another major winter storm brought widespread blizzard conditions to Minnesota on December 1, 1985. Winds were consistently between 30 and 40 pm with gusts to 50 mph. Many roads and highways were closed, and several Sunday church services were cancelled that day. Many areas of the state reported 10 to 16 inches of snowfall.

Outlook:

Mostly sunny skies and warmer than normal temperratures into the weekend. Increasing cloudiness on Sunday, with a chance for rain and/or snow by Monday. Then, much cooler for Tuesday through Friday of next week with below normal temperatures, and generally a dry weather pattern.


Friday, November 17, 2017

Lack of sunshine in November

Lack of sunshine in November:


Many citizens around the state have remarked about the lack of sunshine so far this month. Indeed the data show emphatically the absence of sun has been quite pronounced. Mean cloudiness for the first half of the month ranges from 7 tenths to 8 tenths of the sky across most of the state and some climate stations have reported 9 days of complete cloud cover, while others have reported 8 days with fog.

If we examine historical climate statistics, November is traditionally the cloudiest month of the year, averaging nearly 6 tenths cloud cover of the sky on a daily basis. This is fully 25 to 35 percent more cloud cover than any other month. In terms of actual solar radiation (both direct and diffuse) the amount reaching the Minnesota landscape during November is approximately half of what it is in the month of July, and when compared with to the month with the next least amount of solar radiation (December) it is still about 8 percent less (a result of the low sun angle and shorter day length).

It is no wonder that November traditionally marks the annual onset of Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), sometimes called winter depression, winter blues, or seasonal depression. All of these terms refer to a mood disorder. The reduction in light is so pronounced in November across Minnesota, that many citizens turn to light therapy or other remedies to deal with it. In addition for some citizens the lack of light in November has a pronounced effect on their internal circadian rhythms so that the very long nights provoke earlier bedtimes or later awakening in the morning.


New Seasonal Climate Outlook:



The new seasonal climate outlooks were released by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center on Thursday, November 16th. They are weighted on the occurrence of a mild La Nina episode (cooler than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean prevailing throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter) and favor a cooler and wetter December-February period for Minnesota and the Dakotas. This by no means implies a winter similar to what we had four years ago (2013-2014), but obviously we might expect more below normal temperatures and perhaps more snowfall this winter across the state. It is much more uncertain if a cool, wet weather pattern will persist into the early spring months in 2018.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


NOAA scientists report this week that portions of India and Pakistan have been plagued by persistent smog during November, fouling the air and make it quite unhealthy. Extreme levels of fine particulate matter showed up in some measurements taken there, producing a very poor air quality index.


A new study by scientists from the NASA-Jet Propulsion Laboratory finds that melting ice across the Northern Hemisphere, most significantly the Greenland Ice Sheet, will have variable effects on major coastal cities. The different regions of ice as they melt will translate to variable changes in sea level.


Congratulations to the clergy, faculty, and staff of St John’s University in Collegeville, MN for their recent award and recognition from the NOAA-National Weather Service. They have contributed 125 years of continuous daily weather observations to the central Minnesota climate data base, an enviable record which has allowed residents and state agencies to better understand climate behavior in that part of the state. Their dedication and outstanding service are justly commended.


The web site Carbon Brief announced a new online interactive map which examines the distribution of extreme weather events across the globe and according to case studies to what degree each of those weather events was related to climate change. The map covers almost every type of weather that has been studied by scientists.

MPR listener question:


My wife and I recently moved to the Twin Cities from Rome, Georgia where we used to always grill our turkey outside for Thanksgiving. She won’t let me do it if the temperature is below 40 degrees F because it takes too long. How often is the temperature on Thanksgiving below 40 degrees F on Thanksgiving in the Twin Cities?

Answer:


Let me put it this way, since 1872 a period of 145 years the Twin Cities have recorded a daytime temperature of 40 degrees F or higher only 28 percent of the time, most recently in 2015. That means that 72 percent of the time it is colder than 40 degrees F, so doing any outdoor grilling of turkey might be a bit of a challenge.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 17th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 17th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 71 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1880; lowest daily minimum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 49 degrees F in 2015; record precipitation of 1.67 inches in 1915. Record snowfall on this date is 9.0 inches in 1886.

Average dew point for November 17th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 58°F in 1958; and the minimum dew point on this date is -14°F in 1959.

All-time state records for November 17th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 76 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 2001; the all-time state low for today's date is -19 degrees F at Hallock (Kittson County) in 1914. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.21 inches at Tower (St Louis County) in 1996. Record snowfall is 15.0 inches at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1996.

Past Weather Features:


The coldest ever November 17th on a statewide basis was in 1914 as an Arctic High Pressure system rested over the state. It brought subzero temperature readings to 40 Minnesota communities, and even the daytime maximum temperature at Hallock never rose above 9°F.


Probably the warmest November 17th in state history was in 1953 when 35 communities in Minnesota reported afternoon highs of 70°F or greater. Even Grand Marais along the north shore of Lake Superior saw temperatures climb into the mid 50s F., and even the daytime maximum temperature at Hallock never rose above 9 degrees F.


A slow-moving winter storm plagued the state over November 15-17, 1996. This storm brought a mixture or rain, sleet, ice, and snow which resulted in widespread school closures and travel hazards. In southwestern Minnesota, thousands were without power for 5 days because accumulating ice brought down power lines. In northwestern Minnesota winds of 35-45 mph brought blizzard conditions, with heavy snow, and zero visibility. Many roads and highways were closed. Snow accumulations across the state ranged from 5 to 16 inches.

Outlook:


Colder than normal over the weekend, but generally sunnier skies as well. It will warm up to above normal temperatures on Monday, then cooler with a slight chance for snow on Tuesday. Moderating temperatures much of the rest of the week, and generally dry weather.

Friday, November 10, 2017

Coldest temperatures since March

  Coldest temperatures since March:


At least 35 Minnesota climate stations reported subzero low temperatures this week, the first time that has happened since the second week of last March. Celina (St Louis County) reported a low temperature of -17°F on November 10th, a new all-time state record low for this date. In addition a number of northern Minnesota communities reported new record lows on November 10th as well, including -16°F at Orr (St Louis County), -15°F at Bigfork (Itasca County County), -14°F at Embarrass, and -13°F Cotton, and Brimson. So far average November temperatures around the state are running 6 to 12 degrees F colder than normal, with several new record low temperatures reported on both November 8th and November 10th. On a statewide basis the first ten days of November have been the coldest since 1995.


A distinct change in the temperature pattern for the month is coming next week, as temperatures are expected to rise to above normal values over Tuesday through Friday. Perhaps this is our chance to catch-up on outdoor chores!

January-October 2017 USA Climate Trending Warm and Wet:


NOAA announced this week that the first 10 months of 2017 have been the 3rd warmest in history across the USA (for data back to 1895). They also noted that the January-October period for the nation as a whole was the 2nd wettest in history as well. For Minnesota the rankings are more modest. The first 10 months of 2017 have been the 9th warmest in history, and the 31st wettest in history. This year marks the 6th consecutive wetter than normal year across Minnesota, and the 12th in the last 14 years.

Lake Superior Storm Festival:


For those who like to make a trip to the north shore4 of Lake Superior during the autumn season, you might want to consider the weekend of November 10-12 in order to attend the 5th Annual Lake Superior Storm Festival. A variety of events will take place at Lutsen Resort and in Grand Marais. Among many other activities, I will be speaking at Lutsen Resort on Saturday, November 11th at 3pm with a program titled "A History of Great November Storms on Lake Superior."

25th Annual Kuehnast Lecture:


I have the honor of giving the 25th Anniversary Kuehnast Endowment Lecture next week on November 16th, 2pm at the McNamara Center on the University of Minnesota Minneapolis Campus. I hope to combine some science, history, and stories over the past 40 years as Extension Climatologist for the University of Minnesota. If you are interested, please come as this is a public event.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


NOAA scientists announced this week that La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean now exist. There is a 65-75 percent chance that weak La Nina conditions will persist throughout the Northern Hemisphere winter and therefore have some effect on the weather patterns across North America. This could translate to colder than normal temperatures and perhaps more snow for portions of northern Minnesota.

There consecutive years of below average rainfall across portions of South Africa have caused significant drops in reservoir water supplies in many places, including Cape Town where water rationing has now begun. There is hope that the November-December period, corresponding to the Southern Africa Monsoon Season, will bring more abundant rainfall and help alleviate the drought there. NOAA's Tom Di Liberto writes about this.


Yale Climate Connections reports this week that senior citizens have been provoked enough with climate science research that they are mobilizing in some states to advocate for climate actions (both adaptation and mitigation) at the local, state, and federal levels of government. Such is the case for a group of elders in Massachusetts.


Tropical Storm Haikui was churning across the South China Sea in the Western Pacific Ocean this week generating strong winds and high seas. It was expected to bring stormy conditions to portions of Vietnam later in the weekend.


The BBC News Service announced this week that an automated, real-time reporting weather station has now been installed on the United Kingdom's highest landscape, Ben Nevis, a peak that sits at 4411 feet above sea level. This is thought to be one of the windiest and snowiest spots in the United Kingdom and now thanks to some work by the scientists for the UK National Environmental Research Council there will be a constant data stream from this location, also accompanied by a real-time webcam.


A new study by researchers at UC-Irvine suggests that two to four times as many coastal glaciers associated with the Greenland Ice Sheet are at risk of accelerated melting due to climate change as previously thought. Part of this is due to the much warmer, deeper waters off the Greenland coastline that more rapidly melt the bottom of glaciers that extend out into the sea.



MPR listener question:


Just got back from an autumn vacation and I am wondering how much longer I might be able to plant daffodils, tulips, and crocus. I usually have planted the bulbs in my garden by this time of year and know I need to do it well before the soils freeze up.

Answer:


You still have some time to plant bulbs, but I would not wait any longer. With the cold start to November soil temperatures around the state have cooled into the mid 30s F to low 40s F already. The soil temperatures at a 4 inch depth ranged from 36°F to 42°F across southern and central Minnesota this week. A warming trend will begin this weekend and carry on most of next week, so soil temperatures should remain well above freezing, in the 30s and 40s F for at least another 10 days or so.


Twin Cities Almanac for November 10th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 10th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1945; lowest daily minimum temperature of 3 degrees F in 1986; highest daily minimum temperature of 52 degrees F in 1909; record precipitation of 1.36 inches in 1915. Record snowfall on this date is 5.0 inches in 1896.

Average dew point for November 10th is 26°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 2012; and the minimum dew point on this date is 2°F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 10th:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 78 degrees F at Winona Dam (Winona County) in 1999; the all-time state low for today's date is -15 degrees F at Big Falls (Koochiching County) in 1933. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.80 inches at Minnesota City (Winona County) in 1975. Record snowfall is 12.4 inches at Moorhead (Clay County) in 1919.

Past Weather Features:


A slow-moving and massive winter storm crossed the state over November 9-10, 1896 leaving a swath of heavy snow across southern and western counties. Many areas of the state reported 8-12 inches of snow. Fairmont and Albert Lea reported over 13 inches. Farmers trying to finish up field work were plagued by many snow storms that much. Many areas of the state reported 20-30 inches of snow in total for November of 1896.

Probably the coldest November 10 in state history occurred in 1933, as an Arctic High Pressure system descended on the state bringing subzero temperature readings to 16 locations. Both Big Falls and Mizpah (both in Koochiching County) reported lows of -15 degrees F. The temperature never rose above 20 degrees F at Fosston (Polk County) that day.

A hurricane-strength November storm over Lake Superior on November 10, 1975 sank the Edmund Fitzgerald, with a loss of 29 lives. The storm produced rain, ice, and snow, with gale force winds and extremely large waves.

Some Minnesota citizens took the day off work to play golf on Wednesday, November 10, 1999. It was sunny and warm with over 40 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures from the low to upper 70s F. The temperature never fell below 50 degrees F at Winona and reached a high of 78 degrees F.

Outlook:


Warming up this weekend with a chance for mixed precipitation in southern sections on Saturday and snow flurries in the north. A chance of freezing drizzle in some southern counties on Saturday night. Partly cloudy on Sunday, then warmer yet on Monday through Thursday of next week, with above normal temperatures and a chance for showers on Tuesday and Thursday.
















Friday, November 3, 2017

October Climate Summary

October Climate Summary:


Despite the snow and cold that prevailed during the last days of the month, average October temperatures around the state generally ranged from 1 to 4 degrees F above normal (average). The extremes for the month were 81 degrees F on October 20th at several locations, and just 13 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) on October 29th. October was the 8th month of the year with above normal temperatures (only May and August have been cooler than normal this year). Minnesota did not report the nation's lowest temperature even once during the month. Within the statewide climate network 20 locations reported new daily high temperature records on at least one date; while 32 locations reported new daily warm low temperature records on at least one date.

On a statewide basis October of 2017 was the 15th wettest in state history, with most observers reporting from 3 to 5 inches of precipitation. Several southern Minnesota climate stations reported their wettest October in history, including: 7.87 inches at Spring Grove (Houston County); 7.76 inches at Caledonia (Houston County); 7.37 inches at La Crescent (Winona County); 7.07 inches at Hokah (Houston County); 6.83 inches at Worthington (Nobles County); and 6.66 inches at Hutchinson (McLeod County). With the statewide climate network 70 locations reported at least one new daily precipitation record set during the month.

Many areas of the state received measurable snowfall over October 27-28. In northeastern Minnesota Isabella, Duluth, Chisholm, and Wolf Ridge reported over 10 inches of snow from that storm. In fact the Duluth Airport reported 10.6 inches of snowfall on October 27th which was a new all-time state record for the date, surpassing the 7.7 inches reported at Two Harbors on October 27, 2010.

The month was also noteworthy for windiness. Many places in the state reported wind gusts of 30 mph on 12 days or more. Very large waves were seen on parts of Lake Superior.

Soybean harvest all but wrapped up across the state during the month of October, but corn harvest remained about two weeks behind normal and over half of the acreage was left to be harvested.

Lake Superior Storm Festival:


For those who like to make a trip to the north shore of Lake Superior during the autumn season, you might want to consider the weekend of November 10-12 in order to attend the 5th Annual Lake Superior Storm Festival. A variety of events will take place at Lutsen Resort and in Grand Marais. Among many other activities, I will be speaking at Lutsen Resort on Saturday, November 11th at 3pm with a program titled "A History of Great November Storms on Lake Superior." For more information you can go to the Storm Festival web site.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


This week NOAA featured an article about the very limited ozone hole observed over Antarctica this year. The smaller size of the ozone hole (smallest in 29 years of satellite monitoring) was attributed to the instability and warmer temperatures in the stratosphere that minimized the formation of high-altitude clouds. You can read more at the NOAA News Service web site.


In other news this week NOAA announced that in collaboration with the U.S. Marine Corps they were able to install two short-range Doppler radar systems in Puerto Rico to replace those damaged by Hurricane Maria. So the forecast operations in Puerto Rico have returned to near normal conditions for the first time since September 20th.


The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (Clean) announced that they are starting a series of webinars about their work to build a community more educated on climate change and energy issues. Their first seminar will be on November 9th when they will cover educational resources available for the study of climate and energy. This may ve very useful for school science teachers.


IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee provided an interview recently to discuss strategies for curbing climate change. A brief description of this interview was provided in AGU’s Earth and Space Science News this week and makes for an interesting read.


Typhoon Damrey was moving west across the South China Sea this week towards Vietnam. It is expected to strengthen and bring heavy rain and wind to that country over the coming weekend.

MPR listener question:

I was raised in Bloomington, MN and my mother always told me that after I was born (Nov 13, 1947) it snowed everyday for the rest of the month. I always believed her, but as I have now lived nearly 70 years in the Twin Cities I have never experienced a month like that. Can you tell me if this really happened?

Answer:


Indeed, it nearly did. In November of 1947 it snowed at least a trace every day from November 14 to November 30 except for the 29th. In fact it snowed on 21 days that month, something that really doesn't happen much anymore during anytime of the winter.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 3rd:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 49 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 3rd:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1978 and 2008; lowest daily maximum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 8 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1956; record precipitation of 0.53 inches in 1970. Record snowfall on this date is 4.2 inches in 1951.

Average dew point for November 3rd is 30°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1987; and the minimum dew point on this date is 2°F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 3rd:

The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 82 degrees F at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1909; the all-time state low for today's date is -8 degrees F at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1951. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 2.62 inches at International Falls (Koochiching County) in 1919. Record snowfall is 26.0 inches at Onamia Ranger Station (Mille Lacs County) in 1991.

Past Weather Features:


November 2-3, 1919 brought a winter storm to portions of central and northern Minnesota. Many climate stations reporte 3 to 9 inches of snowfall with high winds and large snow drifts. It was the start to a very snowy November that brought a total of over 20 inches of snow to many northern parts of the state. Red Lake Falls ended up reporting 35 inches of snow by the end of the month.

Following a snowy end to October, November of 1951 started out with mid-winter type temperatures. On November 3rd eleven climate stations reported morning lows that were subzero F, while even the southernmost portions of the state dipped into the mid-teens. The temperature at Ada and Hallock in the Red River Valley never rose above 15°F all day. A week later the temperatures rebounded into the 50s F.

November 3 in 1978 was the warmest in state history with nearly all areas of the state reporting afternoon high temperatures above 60 degrees F. Over 30 communities reported high temperatures of 75 degrees F or warmer and the nighttime temperature never fell below 50°F in St Paul.

A 3-day snow storm over November 2-4, 1982 brought 8 to 20 inches of heavy, wet snow to many parts of northern Minnesota. The first snowplows of the season were called out to work in portions of Lake, Cook, and St Louis Counties where snow drifts up to 5 feet blocked some county roads and highways.

Outlook:


Continued cooler than normal temperatures into the weekend with plenty of cloud cover, and a chance for rain/snow mix later on Saturday and early Sunday. Cooler yet on Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance for snow later on Monday. Then relatively dry the rest of next week with slowly warming temperatures toward next weekend.

Friday, October 27, 2017

Strong winds over the past week

Strong winds over the past week:


Since last Friday, October 20th we have seen more days with strong winds than any other period this year. These winds have been associated with a series of strong low pressure systems passing across the region. There have been frequent days with wind gusts well over 30 mph, and some days with gusts over 40 mph. In fact October 24th was a very unusual day in Rochester because the average wind speed for the entire day was over 20 mph, something that happens only about 2 percent of all days. Also on October 24th winds over 60 mph generated wave heights on Lake Superior that exceeded 20 feet on the eastern half of the lake.

The maximum winds over the past week here in Minnesota frequently gusted to over 40 mph. Those locations measuring such winds included;

MSP Airport, Moorhead, Morris, Crookston, and Marshall all reported winds to 41 mph.
Redwood Falls and Pipestone reported winds to 43 mph.
Benson reported winds to 44 mph.
Rochester reported winds to 46 mph and winds gusting to over 40 mph over several hours.
Cloquet and Duluth reported winds to 47 mph.

Further, Thursday night and Friday morning (Oct 27) brought another strong low pressure system across Minnesota and Wisconsin that produced very strong winds. Wave heights on Lake Superior ranged from 12 to 17 feet on Friday morning. Some of the strongest wind gusts included:

43 mph at Pipestone, Canby and Alexandria.

44 mph at Ortonville, Slayton, Redwood Falls, and Moorhead.

46 mph at Madison.

48 mph at Marshall. 58 mph at the Duluth Harbor.

I am reminded that the coming month of November is generally one of the two most windy months of the year climatologically (the other being April). So, these wind speeds may be even more frequent around the state in the coming month.

Lake Superior Storm Festival:


For those who like to make a trip to the north shore of Lake Superior during the autumn season, you might want to consider the weekend of November 10-12 in order to attend the 5th Annual Lake Superior Storm Festival. A variety of events will take place at Lutsen Resort and in Grand Marais. Among many other activities, I will be speaking at Lutsen Resort on Saturday, November 11th at 3pm with a program titled "A History of Great November Storms on Lake Superior."

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


In the Western Pacific Ocean Tropical Storm Saola is being monitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It is expected to strengthen this weekend and move towards southern Japan, perhaps bringing strong winds, high seas, and heavy rains to Kyoto by Sunday and Monday. You can follow this storm at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center website.


This week NOAA provides an analysis of Hurricane Ophelia which earlier this month sustained itself over unusually warm North Atlantic waters and brought heavy rains and high winds to portions of Ireland. Over 300,000 residents of Ireland lost power, and winds up to 78 mph were measured at Cork. To read further analysis of this unusual storm and see satellite imagery you can find it at the NOAA Climate.gov web site.


In a paper published recently in Scientific Reports, Utah State University scientists show evidence that the recent pattern of drought in Europe, reduced drought frequency in the north and increased drought frequency in the south, matches up well with the projections of climate change models. These drought trends have been observed across European nations since 1980.


There is an interesting article in this week’s Earth and Space Science News which describes how regional climate and weather is interconnected across space and time. The author discusses some of the “climate teleconnections” in the tropics and how they affect mid-latitude weather patterns.

MPR listener question:

How often do we get measurable snowfall during the month of October in the Twin Cities area?

Answer:

Historically, back to 1877 the data show measurable October snowfalls in the Twin Cities about 29 percent of all years, the most recent of which was 2009 (on October 10 and 12 of that year). The most snowfall in October was in 1991, on Halloween when it snowed 8.2 inches, while October of 1925 brought the most days with measurable snowfall, a total of 6 days (that was also the coldest October in Twin Cities climate history with a mean temperature over 10 degrees F cooler than normal). For today's date (Oct 27) in the Twin Cities measurable snowfall has been recorded in the following years: 1910, 1919 (record daily amount of 2.6 inches), 1925, 1959, and 1967. So today's snowfall marks only the 6th measurable amount historically on this date.

For relative comparison, at Duluth the climate record shows measurable snowfalls have occurred in 62 percent of all Octobers, while at International Falls they have occurred in 68 percent of all years. The all-time state snowfall record for the month of October is 19.4 inches at Mizpah (Koochiching County) in 1932. Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) also had 19 inches of October snowfall in 1916, while Farmington (Dakota County) had 19 inches in 1926.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 27th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 53 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 36 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 27th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 1922 and 1948; lowest daily maximum temperature of 29 degrees F in 1925; lowest daily minimum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1997; highest daily minimum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1964; record precipitation of 2.22 inches in 1971. Record snowfall on this date is 2.6 inches in 1919.

Average dew point for October 27th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 60°F in 1971; and the minimum dew point on this date is 11°F in 1925.

All-time state records for October 27th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 90 degrees F at Chatfield (Fillmore County) in 1927; the all-time state low for today's date is -10 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1919. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.25 inches at St Charles (Winona County) in 1900. Record snowfall is 7.7 inches at Two Harbors (Lake County) in 2010.

Past Weather Features:


An early winter storm over October 26-27 brought a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow to the state. Many parts of central and northern Minnesota reported 3-6 inches of snowfall. Following the storm, temperatures fell into the single digits.

Almost summer-like weather visited the state on October 27, 1955. Over 60 communities saw the thermometer top the 70 degrees F mark, while seven others reported afternoon highs in the 80s F. It was sunny, breezy and pleasant statewide, even 70 degrees F across portions of the Iron Range.

A strong low pressure system brought heavy rains, high winds, and thunderstorms to the state on October 27, 1971. Winds over 70 mph blew down a broadcast tower in Willmar, and damaged a drive-in movie screen in Duluth. Thunderstorms brought rains of 2 inches to 3.5 inches to parts of northern Minnesota.

Probably the coldest October 27th on a statewide basis was in 1976. Over 60 climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits, while 7 northern Minnesota communities reported sub-zero temperature readings. This cold air invasion followed a winter storm that delivered 3-6 inches of snow across many parts of the state over October 24-26.

The deepest low pressure system to ever cross the state occurred with the winter storm of October 26-27, 2010. The barometric pressure fell to 28.21 inches at Bigfork (Itasca County) setting a new state record for lowest barometric pressure. This deep low brought widespread winds of 60-70 mph across the state and produced waves on Lake Superior as high as 27 feet. Many areas of northern Minnesota received 3-7 inches of snow, and heavy rain fell across most of the rest of the state.

Outlook:


Sunny, but much cooler than normal on Saturday with highs mostly in the 30s F. Warming up a bit on Sunday, with cloudier skies and a chance for rain/snow mix. Continued chance for widely scattered showers on Monday, drier on Tuesday. Another chance for showers later on Wednesday, with moderating temperatures, though remaining cooler than normal much of the week.

Friday, October 20, 2017

Weather Pattern Reversal in October

Weather Pattern Reversal in October:


After a very wet first half of October, it appears that the 2nd half will be quite dry. During the first two weeks of the month 62 daily rainfall records were set or tied within the Minnesota state climate network, and over three dozen communities reported rainfall totals ranging from 5 to 8 inches, with nearly half the days of the month bringing rain. That pattern has completely reversed itself for the second half of the month, with little precipitation in the forecast out to Halloween. Though dry, the month will continue to be warmer than normal as it was this week.

A Dry Week Helps Farmers:


After a very wet first half of October, this week's sunny, warm, and dry weather has been very helpful for farmers who have resumed harvesting corn and soybean fields. Daily temperatures have been averaging 8-12 degrees F above normal this week. Over 90 climate stations have reported daytime high temperatures in the 70s F this week. The high temperatures, bright sun, strong winds (20-30 mph), and low dew points and humidity provoked the National Weather Service to issue some Red Flag Warnings (ideal conditions for wildfires to break out) for many parts of the state this week. Some of the dew point and relative humidity readings were close to record low values at many locations, including:

On the afternoon of October 18th Roseau had a dew point of 3°F and RH of 10%; Fosston had a dew point of 9°F and RH of 15%; Baudette had a dew point of 9°F and RH of 14%; International Falls had a dew point of 12°F and RH of 16%; Moorhead had a dew point of 13°F and RH of 14%; and Appleton had a dew point of 17F and RH of 16%. For comparison on the same afternoon Phoenix, AZ reported a dew point of 30°F with an RH of 15%.

Although these conditions provoke a higher risk for wildfires, there are also favorable for field corn kernel moisture to dry down by 1 to 2 percent per day, saving farmers on drying costs before storage.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


NOAA scientists released new season outlooks this week. The outlooks favor a somewhat wetter than normal winter (Dec-Feb) over much of Minnesota and perhaps a cooler than normal winter over northern portions of the state. The Winter Outlook is conditioned on the formation of a short-lived La Nina episode (cooler than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean). I might add that Minnesota has recorded only two cooler than normal winters in the last 8 years, the most recent being 2013-1014. Further over the last 20 years only 5 years have brought cooler than normal winters. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center produced a video to explain the Winter Outlook.


NOAA scientists are teaming up with leaders from the construction trades to see if some of the seasonal outlook models can provide useful tools for the timing and deployment of people and equipment doing large-scale construction projects, especially those undertaken in the winter season. One goal is to see whether or not the risk of a damaging rain, win, or Heat Wave can be priced and factored into the time-table for construction contracts in a better way. A more detailed description of this effort can be found on the NOAA Climate.Gov web site.


In the Western Pacific Ocean this week Typhoon Lan was spinning and growing in strength south of Japan. It was producing winds over 115 mph and sea wave heights of 35-40 feet. It may affect southern Japan over the weekend with high winds and heavy rains. More information can be found at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center web site.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/25W_201200sair.jpg

A recent study from Canada published in Environment International shows the risk of heart failure increases in the elderly during cold weather. The study showed that a significant drop in temperature over a 3-7 day period can raise the risk of heart failure among the elderly. This study was based on over 100,000 elderly people studied over the period from 2001-2011.

MPR listener question:


I see many parts of the state are forecast to reach 80 degrees F on Friday (Oct 20). How often does the daytime temperature get that high in October?

Answer:


In the Twin Cities climate record (back to 1872) a reading of at least 80 degrees F or greater has occurred with a frequency of about every two years, not all that uncommon. The last such reading in the Twin Cities record was October 11, 2015 when 85 degrees F was recorded. Readings of 85°F or higher during October are far less common in the Twin Cities climate record, occurring about once every 5 years. At Grand Rapids, MN an 80°F temperature reading in October occurs about once every three years, while at International Falls this happens about once every six years.

Twin Cities Almanac for October 20th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 56 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 20th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 83 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degrees F in 1930; lowest daily minimum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1960; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 2.64 inches in 1934. Record snowfall on this date is 3.0 inches in 1916.

Average dew point for October 20th is 37°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 66°F in 1920; and the minimum dew point on this date is 8°F in 1952.

All-time state records for October 20th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 91 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1947; the all-time state low for today's date is -1 degrees F at Argyle (Marshall County) in 1916. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 3.95 inches at Chaska (Carver County) in 1934. Record snowfall is 10.0 inches at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1906.

Past Weather Features:


October 19-21, 1906 brought a winter storm to northern Minnesota where 4 to 10 inches of snow fell. This was one of the earliest heavy snows in state history.

A strong winter storm brought snow to most parts of the state over October 18-19, 1916. Following the storm the coldest temperatures ever reported in the state on October 20th and the earliest seasonal reading of subzero occurred. Argyle (Marshall County) reported a low of -1°F, while Angus (Polk County) and Roseau reported a reading of zero degrees F. Several other locations reported lows in the single digits. It was the start of a long, cold, and snowy season.

October 20-21 brought heavy rain to portions of Minnesota. Many climate stations reported 2 to 4 inches of rain which brought an abrupt halt to farmers field work. The rain was one of the heaviest of the Dust Bowl decade.

By far the warmest October 20th in state history was in 1947 when over 30 communities reported an afternoon high temperature of 80 degrees F or greater. Five climate stations reached the 90°F mark. In the Twin Cities even the overnight low temperature never fell below 55 degrees F that day.

October 20-21, 2002 brought some heavy snows to many parts of the state. Many observers reported 4 to 8 inches of heavy wet snow.

Outlook:


Moderating temperatures over the weekend, still above normal but not as warm as earlier in the week. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday, then drier, cooler, and sunnier on Sunday with some strong winds. Temperatures will continue a little above normal next week with the occasional chance for showers.






Friday, October 13, 2017

Very Wet October So Far

Very Wet October So Far:


Harvesting of corn and soybeans has been slowed or delayed due to wet weather this month. So far at least 55 climate stations have reported new daily record amounts of rainfall, mostly during the first three days of the month, and over the the sixth through the 9th. In addition many places have reported consistent rain, about every two days or so. As a result a number of climate stations, especially in southern counties have reported a total of 4 to 7 inches of rainfall and we have not reached the mid-point of October yet. Across Minnesota normal October monthly rainfall ranges from two to three inches, so many locations have already received twice the average amount.

This October rainfall pattern follows the recent trend towards wetter than normal. Sixteen of the past twenty-two Octobers in Minnesota have been wetter than normal on a statewide basis, with three among the top five wettest historically. The silver lining in all this is that for most places the soils will be recharged with moisture for next spring's crops.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:


NOAA scientists reported recently that the month of September was generally warmer and drier than normal across the nation. It was the 14th warmest in Minnesota state history back to 1895, and it overall wetter than normal but only by about a half inch of precipitation. Across the nation the first nine months of 2017 (Jan-Sep) rank as the third warmest in history, but the wettest in history as well. Many states will likely report their wettest year in history by the time we get to the end of December. Of course September of 2017 will be remembered more vividly for Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria.


NOAA scientists also released a climate assessment of the environmental conditions which have produced the highly destructive California wildfires this autumn. Last winters abundant precipitation in California helped solve drought there but ushered in a very lush and productive growing season. Then the dry, hot summer brought about high risk for autumn fires.

The United Kingdom Met Office is commemorating the 30th Anniversary of the Famous October 15-16, 1987 storm which brought 100 mph winds and much damage to the country. One of the worst ever storms to hit the United Kingdom, the winds and rain caused over 1 billion dollars in damage and 22 lives were lost. You can read more about this storm and the improvements made in forecasting by going to the Met Office web site.



In this week's Earth and Space Science News from the AGU there is an article about measuring the carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants in three different countries using satellite-based technologies. Though not as accurate as ground-based measurements, the satellites are useful in assessing seasonal variations and other attributes of these emissions.


MPR listener question:


What a wet month! I have never seen it so wet in October here in Fillmore County. What is the record amount of rainfall for the month of October in Minnesota?

Answer:


The all-time record rainfall for October in Minnesota is 11.25 inches at St Charles (Winona County) in October of 1900. The record amount for Fillmore County in October is 7.92 inches in October of 2013.


Twin Cities Almanac for October 13th:


The average MSP high temperature for this date is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 41 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 13th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 1956; lowest daily maximum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1937; lowest daily minimum temperature of 22 degrees F in 1917; highest daily minimum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1879, 1968, and 2000; record precipitation of 1.52 inches in 1890. Record snowfall on this date is 0.4 inches in 1969.

Average dew point for October 13th is 41°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 1962; and the minimum dew point on this date is 14°F in 1937.


All-time state records for October 13th:


The all-time state high temperature for today's date is 89 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1958 and at Luverne (Rock County) in 1975; the all-time state low for today's date is 2 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1936. The all-time state record precipitation for this date is 4.71 inches at Fosston (Polk County) in 1984. Record snowfall is 7.0 inches at Warroad (Roseau County) in 2006.


Past Weather Features:


The coldest October 13th in state history occurred in 1933. Frosts occurred in all corners of the state, and the morning low temperature was record-setting, below 20 degrees F in over 30 communities around the state. Thin ice formed on ponds and shallow lakes.

An autumn season snow storm dominated the headlines in Minnesota over October 11-13, 1959. This snow temporarily halted the harvest season for many farmers and brought several inches to many parts of the state. Across southern and central areas of the state 3 to 7 inches of heavy, wet snow accumulated. Itasca State Park ended up with nearly 10 inches of snow for October of that year.

One of the warmest October 13ths in state history came in 1975 when over 20 climate stations reported a daytime high of 85 degrees F or higher. It brought a warm night too as the temperature never dropped below 60 degrees F at places like Austin and Preston.

A storm brought heavy rain, and even some snow to portions of the state over October 12-13, 1997. Many areas of southern Minnesota received 2-3 inches of rain, disrupting the harvest season and causing soil erosion on some plowed fields in southeastern counties. In the Red River Valley area 2-4 inches of snow fell.

Outlook:


Clouding up on Saturday with showers later in the day and evening, then partly cloudy with cooler than normal temperatures on Sunday. More frosts in northern counties. Drier and warmer weather for early next week with temperatures climbing to above normal values as daytime highs range from the upper 50s to upper 60s F.




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