Wide swings in temperature:
This time of year the combination of clear skies, bright sun, and strong air mass advection (from either the north or south) can cause some very dramatic and large swings in temperature. That’s is what we experienced back on October 3-4 when many parts of the state saw afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s F drop overnight into the 20s and 30s F. The complete reversal of that pattern took place this Thursday, October 18th as morning lows in the 30s F were followed by bright sun, and mild southwest winds which caused temperatures to rise into the 70s F. Here are some temperature changes reported on October 18th:
MSP from a morning low of 33 degrees F to an afternoon high of 71 degrees F
Hallock from a morning low of 36 degrees F to an afternoon high of 75 degrees F
Baudette from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 71 degrees F
Roseau from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 72 degrees F
Alexandria from a morning low of 30 degrees F to an afternoon high of 74 degrees F
Browns Valley from a morning low of 24 degrees F to an afternoon high of 75 degrees F
For many areas of the state October 18th was only the second day this month with above normal temperatures. We have been dominated by cooler than normal weather so far, ranking among the coldest 10 historically for the first half of the month on a statewide basis.
NOAA Winter Season Outlook:
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the latest winter outlook this week. I covered the months of December through February. For Minnesota the outlook favors a warmer than normal winter period. Equal chances are projected for above or below normal precipitation over this period, except in far northeastern Minnesota which is expected to be drier than normal.
Weekly Weather Potpourri:
The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced this week that Dr. Penelope Endersby will become its news Chief Executive starting this December. This marks the first time in history that a woman scientist will lead the UK Meteorological Office. Professor Endersby moves over from her position as a lead scientist in the Ministry of Defense.
The second week of October brought strong and persistent thunderstorms to portions of central Texas where they reported 10 to 17 inches of rainfall and widespread flash flooding. There were 18 central Texas counties declared as flood disasters, and many people were displaced from their homes.
An article from the BBC News highlighted the unusual autumn blooming of cherry trees in Japan this year. Normal the annual cherry blossom occurs in the spring in Japan and draws thousands of tourists to witness and photograph its beauty. But this year because of recent typhoons that brought heavy rainfall, followed by warmer than normal temperatures across Japan, the cherry blossoms have appeared for a second time in the autumn.
MPR listener question:
I know that it has been a colder than normal October so far with widespread frosts around the state, even here in the Twin Cities. Have temperatures up north dropped into the single digits yet? I asked because my father always said that ice cover on area lakes starts to form much more rapidly when overnight lows start dropping into the single digits.Answer:
Approximately 20 northern climate stations have reported overnight minimum temperatures this month in the teens F, but only Hallock (Kittson County) has reported a single digit low, with a reading of 8 degrees F on October 12th.Twin Cities Almanac for October 19th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).MSP Local Records for October 19th:
MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 2000; lowest daily maximum temperature of31 degrees F in 1930: lowest daily minimum temperature is 15 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 2.75 inches in 1934; and there was a record snowfall of 1.3 inches in 1916.
Average dew point for October 19th is 36 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1971 and a minimum of 11 degrees F in 1972.
All-time state records for October 19th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 90 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 2003. The state record low temperature for this date is 0 degrees F at Orr (St Louis County) in 2005. State record precipitation for this date is 2.96 inches at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center near Finland (Lake County) in 2007; and record snowfall is 9 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1905.Past Weather Features:
October 18-19, 1916 brought heavy snow to many parts of northern Minnesota, where observers reported 7 to 16 inches. This storm ushered in one of the longest, snowiest winters in state history, that of 1916-1917. Many parts of the state received over 80 inches of snow that winter.October 19, 1972 brought mid-winter type temperatures to many parts of Minnesota. Over 30 climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits, and even the daytime highs only ranged from the upper 20s to mid-30s F.
October 19, 2003 was the warmest in state history with over 35 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 80s F. Milan reached 90 degrees F. North shore areas along Lake Superior remained in the 50s F all day.
Outlook:
Cool and breezy on Saturday with a chance for light rain or snow flurries. Sunny and warmer on Sunday and Monday with temperatures that are closer to normal for this time of year. Next week looks to be generally dry.Twin Cities Almanac for October 19th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).
MSP Local Records for October 19th:
MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 84 degrees F in 2000; lowest daily maximum temperature of31 degrees F in 1930: lowest daily minimum temperature is 15 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1920; record precipitation of 2.75 inches in 1934; and there was a record snowfall of 1.3 inches in 1916.
Average dew point for October 19th is 36 degrees F, with a maximum of 61 degrees F in 1971 and a minimum of 11 degrees F in 1972.
All-time state records for October 19th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 90 degrees F at Milan (Chippewa County) in 2003. The state record low temperature for this date is 0 degrees F at Orr (St Louis County) in 2005. State record precipitation for this date is 2.96 inches at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center near Finland (Lake County) in 2007; and record snowfall is 9 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1905.
Past Weather Features:
October 18-19, 1916 brought heavy snow to many parts of northern Minnesota, where observers reported 7 to 16 inches. This storm ushered in one of the longest, snowiest winters in state history, that of 1916-1917. Many parts of the state received over 80 inches of snow that winter.
October 19, 1972 brought mid-winter type temperatures to many parts of Minnesota. Over 30 climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits, and even the daytime highs only ranged from the upper 20s to mid-30s F.
October 19, 2003 was the warmest in state history with over 35 communities reporting afternoon high temperatures in the 80s F. Milan reached 90 degrees F. North shore areas along Lake Superior remained in the 50s F all day.
Outlook:
Cool and very breezy on Saturday with a chance for light rain or snow flurries. Sunny and warmer on Sunday and Monday with temperatures closer to normal and even above normal in some places. Next week looks to be generally dry, with temperatures fluctuating either side of normal.
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