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Cold Trend Continues

Cold Trend Continues:


The trend for colder than normal temperatures in Minnesota that was so significant in the month of October has continued this month, with most areas averaging from 9 to 12 degrees F cooler than normal for the first week of November.  Many northern Minnesota communities have already seen overnight lows in the single digits this month.  Brimson (St Louis County) reported a morning low of -1°F on the 6th, while Babbitt (St Louis County) reported 0°F that same morning.  Also there have been sub-zero Wind Chill values reported from many parts of the state. 
  
Many areas of the state have reported repeated light snow falls this month, while on November 6th (Wed) many southern counties reported 4-6 inches of snowfall.  For the near term forecast period significant amounts of more snowfall are not likely, but continuation of the colder than normal temperatures is expected to last through the 3rd week of the month. 

Weekly Weather Potpourri:



The firearm deer hunting season opener is this Saturday (November 9) and it looks to be cloudy with a chance for precipitation in most parts of the state.  Temperatures will be 5-8 degrees cooler than normal.  You can read more about the climate history of the deer hunting season at the climate history at the Minnesota State Climate Office web site.

On November 8, 1870, the first storm warning was issued by the U.S. Army Signal Corps, the precursor to the National Weather Service.  President U.S. Grant and the Congress had given them authority to issue forecasts for threatening weather conditions and they did so that day for a Great Lakes Storm, a typical “Gales of November” storm referenced in Gordon Lightfoot’s famous song “The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.” 

Cyclone Matmo was moving across the Bay of Bengal this week, while gradually strengthening on its way north. Matmo packed winds of 65 knots / 75 mph / 120 km/h with a central pressure of around 985 mbar. Matmo has a long life as it formed in the South China Sea, crossed the Indochinese peninsula and re-intensified in the Bay of Bengal. It will continue north/northeast towards the possible landfall in the SW Bangladesh this weekend.

MPR listener question: 


BRRRR!  We see that the forecast calls for just single digit low temperatures by early next week around Minnesota.  This seems unusual.  How often does this happen in the first half of November? 
  

Answer:   

  
For the Twin Cities climate history back to 1871 single digit low temperatures during the first half of November are indeed a bit unusual, happening about once every 5 years or so.  In 1966, 1986, and 1991 there were even some sub-zero low temperature readings in the Twin Cities during the first half of November. 
  
Up north, it is far more common to have single digit low temperatures the first two weeks of November.  In fact at Roseau, MN this happens an average of two times every year, and in 1935 during the first half of November they recorded 13 nights with low temperatures in the single digits or colder. 
  

Twin Cities Almanac for November 8th: 

 The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).   MSP Local Records for November 8th: 
  
MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 25 degree F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 53 degrees F in 2006; record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1932.  Record snowfall is 8.5 inches also in 1943.   Average dew point for November 8th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1977; and the minimum dew point on this date is -3°F in 1991.   All-time state records for November 8th:   The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -14 degrees F at Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 1991. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.45 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1945. Record snowfall for this date is 16.0 inches at Vesta (Redwood County) in 1943. 

 Past Weather Features: 

  
An ice storm and heavy snowfall occurred across Minnesota over November 6-8, 1943. The storm produced heavier snowfalls in some areas than the more famous Armistice Day and Halloween Blizzards and caused significant shoreline damage to the Lake Superior area. This storm, coming from the south, started out as rain, changing to freezing rain and sleet, then finally heavy snow.  Occurring over a weekend (Saturday through Monday), the storm stranded many Minnesota duck hunters in the countryside, though it did not result in many fatalities because the temperature drop was modest (about 8-10 degrees F) compared to those of the Armistice Day and Halloween Blizzards (over 40 degrees F drop).  A total of five storm-related fatalities were reported across the state. This storm produced a great deal of ice, up to 3 inches thick on some power lines in central Minnesota.  Over 1700 power and telephone poles fell down as a result. The ice also caused numerous accidents and put a stop to train, plane, and streetcar traffic. When the temperature dropped sufficiently to produce snow on the 8th, great amounts piled up across southern and central counties.  some of the larger amounts, and still records for the date, include 22 inches at Faribault, 20 inches at Bird Island, 20 inches at Redwood Falls, 22 inches at arshall, and 18 inches at Springfield.  Strong winds of 30 to 40 mph produced enormous drifts in some areas.  In Cottonwood County, 15 ft drifts closed state highways 71 and 30, and near Windom an Omaha bound train was completed buried in a snow drift.  Duluth and other cities along the north shore of Lake Superior reported enormous waves and erosion damage.  Winds from the northeast gusted to near 45 mph.  Sixty-five ore carriers took refuge in Duluth-Superior harbor.  Fortunately, following the storm, relatively dry, mild weather took hold and soon dissipated the snow cover.   
  
The coldest November 8th came in 1991 with over 40 climate stations reporting sub-zero morning low temperatures.  Both Faribault and Waseca reported a high temperature of only 15°F that day, with  ample snow on the ground. 

The warmest November 8th was in 1999 when over 60 climate stations reported an afternoon high temperature of 70°F or greater.  Portions of western Minnesota saw the temperature climb into the 80s F.   

Outlook: 

  
Increasing cloudiness on Saturday with somewhat moderating temperatures, though still cooler than normal.  A chance for rain or snow.  Then predominately dry Sunday through Wednesday with cooler than normal temperatures.  Chance for snow again by late Wednesday and Thursday.


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