Minnesota WeatherTalk

Preliminary January Climate Summary: January will end up among the top 5 to 7 warmest historically on a statewide basis, with over 80 percent of the days bringing warmer than normal temperatures. Among Minnesota long term climate stations, the northern and western areas showed the highest departures in temperature, and therefore warmest historical ranking. For example, International Falls will report the 4th warmest January in history (back to 1895) with an average monthly temperature around 10 degrees F above normal. For the Twin Cities the January mean temperature will rank as the 13th warmest in history (back to 1873) with a monthly mean temperature about 6.5 degrees F above normal. For other locations in Minnesota the ranking of January warmth shows some variation: Fargo-Moorhead 5th warmest January (back to 1881) St Cloud 10th warmest January (back to 1893) Duluth 11th warmest January (back to 1874) Rochester 15h warmest January (back to 1887) Milan 6th warmest January (back t...

Warm Climate This January: It looks like this January may end up among the 5 warmest in state history based on statewide climate data so far. Through two-thirds of the month temperatures are running from 8 to 17 degrees F above normal. The last ten days of the month will not all be warmer than normal, but a mixture of above and below normal values. This will mean that the average temperature for January in Minnesota may not be as cold as December was. Nevertheless, we can anticipate a period of three consecutive months with monthly mean temperatures above normal. The persistence of warmer than normal temperatures has been so strong that the November through January period may end up among the 5 warmest historically as well. It is somewhat unusual to have this persistent warmth during a La Nina period (cold surface waters) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This is somewhat like what happened with Minnesota November through January temperatures being warmer than normal during the La...

 Warm Signature Persistence: Since November 1st 75 to 80 percent of all days have brought warmer than normal temperatures to most parts of Minnesota. This is unusual persistence of warmth in terms of longevity (75 days) and rivals the similar November through January of 2015-2016, which started a very warm year for Minnesota (2016 was the 5th warmest year in state history). The other unusual aspect of the warmth has been the amplitude or wide deviation from normal. International Falls has been measuring temperatures that are 20 to 25 degrees F above normal so far this month. In fact for the entire first half of January the nation’s “Ice Box” has seen an average temperature that is over 19 degrees F above normal. Back in November (2020) over the 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th new statewide daily maximum temperatures records were set (all 80 degrees F or higher). Daytime high temperatures were running over 30°F above normal during this time. Statistically this is a rare amplified aberr...