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Cool and Dry Pattern Ending

 Cool and Dry Pattern Ending:

The weather pattern which brought 11 consecutive days of cooler than normal temperatures with no rainfall is finally breaking down. Many parts of the state reported afternoon high temperatures in the 70s F on Thursday (May 13) of this week and dew points rose from the teens and twenties into the thirties F. More frosts were reported this week over May 11 and 12, with some as far south as Windom and Marshall.

All the forecast models suggest a change to a wetter and warmer pattern begins this weekend and should last until the end of the month. The rains will be most welcome as most of the annual major crop acreage has been planted and would benefit from additional moisture. Temperatures will average above normal too for the rest of the month with many daytime highs in the 80s F.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center a moderately strong Tropical Cyclone will bring rains, high winds and high surf to portions of India and Pakistan early next week. Though relatively weak now it is expected to strengthen over the weekend.

With the end of a La Nina Episode in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the expectation of an ENSO Neutral condition through the summer months seasonal outlook models are favoring a warmer than normal summer for the High Plains and for portions of Minnesota. The Weather Channel provides a video about this.

The drought outlook for 2021 worsened for many western states this week and also for the Dakotas. NOAA drought outlooks through July 31 foresee a worsening of drought conditions in many areas. This has raised speculation that many western states may face a significant risk of wildfires during the summer months.

MPR listener question:

Monday, May 10th we saw snow flurries north of Two Harbors, but the air temperature was 46°F. Seems unusual to get snow flurries with that temperature. What is the highest temperature that snowfall has been recorded?


There are a few dates historically, mostly in October, April, and May when northern Minnesota climate stations have reported snow flurries while the air temperature has been in the upper 40s F to low 50s F. This is because the temperature aloft above a low cloud base was cold enough to maintain a frozen form of precipitation and it did not fully melt as it fell through the warmer air near the surface.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 14th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 14th:

MSP records for this date include: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 2013; lowest daily maximum temperature of 38 degrees F in 1907; lowest daily minimum temperature of 32 degrees F in 1907; highest daily minimum temperature of 68 degrees F in 1907; record precipitation of 1.28 inches in 1916. Record snowfall is a Trace in 1927.

Average dew point for May 14th is 44°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 68°F in 1911; and the minimum dew point on this date is 16 degrees F in 2016.

All-time state records for May 14th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 102 degrees F at Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2013. The state record low temperature for this date is 11 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis County) in 1945. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.82 inches at Crookston (Polk County) in 1941. Record snowfall is 6.0 inches at Cook (St Louis County) in 1974.

Past Weather Features:

A very cold morning across the state on May 14, 1888. Rochester reported just 28°F, Moorhead reported 20°F and Argyle (Marshall County) reported 18°F

On May 13-14, 1907 a rare snowstorm brought 3 to 7 inches to many parts of western and north-central Minnesota. It snowed as far south as Windom (Cottonwood County). The snow was brief in longevity as temperatures rose into the 50s and 60s F the next day.

Warmest ever May 14 was back in 2013 when over 40 climate stations reported afternoon temperatures of 90°F or greater. Both Mankato and Amboy broke 100 degrees F.


Slight chances for rain early on Saturday, then increasing sunshine and warmer for the remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will climb mostly in the 70s and 80s Monday and Tuesday, with increasing dew points reaching the 50s F. A chance for rain by Wednesday and Thursday of next week, but continued warmer than normal temperatures.

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