November Starts Cool

November Starts Cool:

Through the first few days of November many places in Minnesota have reported their coldest temperatures of the autumn season so far, ranging from the teens to the low thirties F. Brimson (St Louis County) reported just 12°F on Friday morning. Even the daily high temperatures only ranged from the mid 30s to low 40s F on some days. The high temperature at Crane Lake on November 2nd only reached 30°F. Temperatures averaged typically from 2 to 4 degrees F cooler than normal over the first four days of the month.

Also during this time many climate stations reported a trace of snow, including the University of Minnesota St Paul Campus. Further north in Aitkin, Itasca, Roseau, Koochiching, St Louis, and Lake Counties measurable snowfall was reported, ranging from just 0.1 inches up to 1.0 inches near Winton (St Louis County). Rainfall throughout October helped reduce the area of the Minnesota landscape designated to be in Severe to Extreme Drought to less than 30 percent, the lowest value in several months.

We will see a reversal of this trend as we head into the weekend, with temperatures running from 6 to 15 degrees above normal through next Wednesday. A drier than normal period will prevail as well. Several models suggest the milder than normal temperatures will prevail across Minnesota through the second week of November, but the precipitation pattern is expected to change and bring more rain (perhaps even snow) to many areas.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features an interesting article about a World Flood Mapping Tool that is now available to depict the extent of historical floods and flood damage, especially for countries that lack the data to assess the properties and features of past floods. The tool uses Landsat images since 1985 at a resolution of just 30 meters.


Many NOAA scientists and experts are attending COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland this month. A number are presenting webinars that can be viewed online. For a schedule and access to these webinars you can visit the climate.gov website.


Also, while the United Nations COP26 (Conference of the Parties) meetings on Climate Change are going on in Glasgow, the BBC has produced a primer on Climate Change in Wales. This features interesting graphics and narrative about impacts on all the economic sectors.


The NOAA Climate Program Office has forged a partnership with the University of Maryland (UMD) Center for Technology and Systems Management and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) to accelerate the development of climate-smart engineering codes and standards. The goal of this partnership is to bring climate information into the standard-setting process for construction so that there will be an increase in the pace of climate adaptation and hopefully a reduction in the costs of climate-related natural disasters.


Science Daily this week reports on a new study by scientists at Harvard who simulated atmospheric behavior under a “hothouse scenario” similar to millions of years ago when the Earth was 20 to 30°F warmer than today. The simulations showed a dramatic amplification of the hydrologic cycle with prolonged dryness in the tropics, followed by massive rainstorms that could deliver a month or more worth of rainfall in only hours.

MPR listener question:

Last week you shared some thoughts and perspectives about the Halloween Blizzard of 1991 and we know it was the start also of a very snowy November that delivered nearly 47 inches of snow to the Twin Cities and over 50 inches of snow to Duluth. Wondering how many Novembers have delivered over 40 inches of snowfall to the state?

Answer:

Checking the historical climate data, I can find only two other Novembers besides 1991 that brought over 40 inches of snowfall to the state. Those were 1933 when Pigeon River Bridge up in Cook County reported 51 inches; and 1940 (the year of the Armistice Day Blizzard) when Meadowlands (St Louis County) reported 42 inches of snowfall, and Collegeville (St Johns University in Stearns County) reported 49.1 inches for November. So that level of snowfall in November is indeed very rare.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 5th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 5th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 73 degrees F in 2016; lowest daily maximum temperature of 26 degrees F in 1935; lowest daily minimum temperature of 3 degrees F in 1951; highest daily minimum temperature of 57 degrees F in 2008; record precipitation of 0.93 inches in 1948. Record snowfall is 4.2 inches in 1959.

Average dew point for November 5th is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 56°F in 2015; and the minimum dew point on this date is 0 degrees F in 1951.

All-time state records for November 5th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 78 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1975. The state record low temperature for this date is -16 degrees F at Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1951. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.02 inches at Rushford (Fillmore County) in 1948. Record snowfall is 11.0 inches at Floodwood (St Louis County) in 1993.

Past Weather Features:

The coldest November 5th on a statewide basis was in 1951 when over half of the state reported subzero morning low temperatures. It was subzero as far south as Windom (Cottonwood County) and Grand Meadow (Mower County). The afternoon high temperature at Detroit Lakes only reached 11°F.

A large-scale-low pressure system brought widespread heavy rains. Many areas of the state reported between one and two inches of rainfall. Portions of Fillmore County reported over two inches.

The hottest November 5th was in 1975 when sunny skies and south winds allowed afternoon temperatures to soar into the 70s F across most of the state. It was a Wednesday, middle of the work week, and many enjoyed eating their lunch outside.

November 4-5, 1993 brought an early winter storm to Minnesota with a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow. Many communities in central and northern Minnesota reported from 5 to 10 inches of snowfall. Portions of northeastern Minnesota ended up with over 30 inches of snowfall that month.

Outlook: 

Generally warmer than normal and sunny over the weekend. Excellent weather for outdoor chores. Somewhat cooler Monday through Wednesday next week, but still warmer than normal. Chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures.