Warm and Wet Weather Pattern to Dominate June

Warm and Wet Weather Pattern to Dominate June:

Warm and wet continue to be the climate trends through the first two weeks of June. Though there have been June frosts in portions of St Louis, Itasca, and Cook Counties in the north, most areas of the state are reporting average temperatures this month that range from 1°F to 3°F above normal. This week, climate observers in Redwood, Hubbard, Traverse, Chippewa, Big Stone, Lyon and Clay Counties reported afternoon high temperatures of 90°F or greater. Sabin and Marshall reported 94°F on Wednesday. There are indications from the forecast models that many locations may see more days in the 90s F next week.

Another round of thunderstorms, some severe, passed across the state on June 12th. This time there were 23 reports of strong winds, with some gusts over 60 mph, and over 80 reports of large hail, especially in central and northern counties. There were many reports of two inch diameter hail, and in Cass County even a report of 2.5 inch diameter hail. These storms were relatively fast moving and deposited between a quarter of an inch to an inch of rainfall in many places. Further, the National Weather Service in Duluth deployed a survey team to examine damages from the storms and they determined that tornadic damage occurred in portions of Carleton, Crow Wing, and Aitkin Counties.

Some climate stations reported over an inch of rainfall this week. The thunderstorm rains this month, though of relatively short duration have certainly compiled some impressive rainfall totals for the first half of the month. Many climate stations are already reporting 3 to 4 inches of rainfall for the month of June and we are not yet half way through the month. A few places in Goodhue, Rice, Faribault, Todd, and Stearns Counties have reported over 5 inches of rain this month.

The Climate Prediction Center models suggest that the balance of the month will see a prevalent pattern of warmer and wetter than normal weather across Minnesota. In this context, it is justified to expect a much wetter than normal June statewide, breaking the drier than normal trend of the last three Junes. In addition, continued abundant rainfalls may make this June fall among the wettest 10 in history, where the statewide average rainfall exceeded 6 inches.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

A recent article in the journal Science describes a new cooling textile material that can be used for better comfort and safety in urban heat islands. The material can keep the body several degrees cooler than other materials used today. This designed fabric could also be used for safer and more efficient storage and transportation of food items.

The Weather Underground reported that persistent heavy rains have flooded many parts of southern Florida since Tuesday. Many observers have reported 12 to 19 inches of rainfall, with widespread street flooding. Some airports were closed for a time, and a state of emergency was declared in some cities such as Miami, Ft Lauderdale, and Naples. Craig Edwards, former Chief Meteorologist in the Twin Cities, now living in Ft Myers, FL reported nearly a foot of rainfall so far this week. Normal June total rainfall is about 9 to 9.5 inches in that area.

There is an interesting video at the BBC Weather Center this week featuring meteorologist Carol Kirkwood sharing the stories about 75 years of broadcasting the weather on the BBC. She includes the story of Barbara Edwards the first woman meteorologist to present on the BBC back in 1974. She also describes advances in technologies used to present the weather. It is both entertaining and educational.

MPR listener question:

What is the average duration of rainfall from a thunderstorm over any particular spot on the landscape?

Answer:

Good question. I never thought much about this one. Studies from the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma suggest that the average duration of rainfall from a thunderstorm is from 1 to 2 hours. There is a latitude effect as well. Thunderstorms at lower latitudes, subtropical or tropical in nature tend to form into larger cells, both vertically and horizontally. Therefore, they have greater longevity before they disperse. Thunderstorm cells at higher latitudes tend to be smaller in size and move faster across the landscape, so that they tend to run their course more rapidly. Certainly, the ones over central and northern Minnesota earlier this week were relatively fast moving, bringing most of the rain in 1 or 2 hours.

Twin Cities Almanac for June 14th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 79 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 60 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for June 14th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 98 degrees F in 1987; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 19171; lowest daily minimum temperature of 44 degrees F in 1927; highest daily minimum temperature of 73 degrees F in 1893, and record precipitation of 2.48 inches in 1924. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for June 14th is 56°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 74°F in 1981; and the minimum dew point on this date is 33 degrees F in 1961.

All-time state records for June 14th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1979. The state record low temperature for this date is 22 degrees F at Isabella (Lake County) in 2000. The state record precipitation for this date is 5.46 inches at Red Wing (Goodhue County) in 2012. There has been no snowfall on this date.

Past Weather:

On June 14 of 1927 frost was reported in 9 northern Minnesota counties, with temperatures as low as 27°F at Littlefork. The afternoon high temperature at Two Harbors that day only reached 50°F.

An early summer Heat Wave brought record-setting daily high temperatures to much of Minnesota on June 14 of 1979. Much of the state saw afternoon highs from the upper 80s F to upper 90s F, while observers in 19 counties measured temperatures of 100°F or greater.

On the afternoon of June 14 in 1981 a tornado sped across the Twin Cities heading northeast. It was on the ground for 15 miles, causing damage near Lake Harriet, Edina, and Roseville. Many homes were damage, and also buildings around the Har-Mar Mall. At the time the tornado was rated F-3 (winds of 158-206 mph) and caused 1 death and 83 injuries.

Torrential rains fell over portions of Goodhue, Rice, and Dakota Counties on June 14 of 2012. Many observers measured from 5 to 8 inches of rainfall, with 8.83 inches measured at Cannon Falls. The Little Cannon River near Cannon Falls rose twelve feet in about ten hours and set a new record crest.

Outlook:

Cloudy skies with moderate temperatures on Saturday and a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy with a warming trend on Sunday as temperatures climb to several degrees above normal and a chance for thunderstorms late in the day. Continued warm with chances for thunderstorms over much of next week with some moderation in temperature.