Flirting with a historically dry October:
October continued to be extremely dry this week for most places in the state, with the exception of northeastern Minnesota where rainfall was recorded on both October 12 and 13. In fact some observers in the northeast reported between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall over those dates. A few reported new daily record rainfall amounts including:
1.44 inches at Wolf Ridge
1.36 inches at Embarrass
1.20 inches at Tower
1.12 inches at Grand Portage
Still, many observers in the state have reported little or no rainfall for the month so far, and we are past the halfway point. The statewide average rainfall this month is only 0.26 inches, although it continues to look like the last week of this month may bring significant rainfall.
Here are the 5 driest Octobers in state history based on statewide average precipitation:
1952 0.13 inches
1889 0.14 inches
1895 0.27 inches
1944 0.35 inches
1976 0.46 inches
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor showed that 97 percent of Minnesota is abnormally dry, while 72 percent of the landscape is in at least Moderate Drought, and of that amount 28 percent is in Severe Drought. Stream levels and lake levels continue to decline and landscape vegetation is drying out. It is not surprise that according to the recent fire danger maps from the MN-DNR all of the state counties are rated High, Very High, or Extreme in terms of fire danger (as of October 17). Burning restrictions are in place in Cook, Lake, Koochiching, and portions of northern St Louis County.
The National Weather Service has had to issue a number of Red Flag Warnings so far this month, including one on Thursday, October 17 that encompassed 85 of Minnesota’s 87 counties. Many climate stations reported wind gusts over 30 mph and relative humidity of only 14 to 20 percent that afternoon. Wind gusts over 30 mph have been very common this month, occurring on nearly half of all days so far at many climate stations.
Weekly Weather Potpourri:
We are not the only ones suffering from a dry October. The Weather Underground this week features an article about the long dry spells current underway in New York and Philadelphia where the longest ever stretches without measurable rainfall may be approached.
The United Kingdom Meteorological Office announced earlier this month the launch of its Local Authority Climate Service. This service provides local authorities with easy access to tailored information on climate change, to support local climate change adaptation planning. Using this online service local authorities can visualise climate challenges, explore climate projections and communicate a climate story specific to their local areas.
BTW this service in the UK is a close analogy to the CLIMAT online service offered by our own Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program. CLIMAT provides highly localized climate projections for Minnesota. Users can view climate projections down to the 4km/2.5mile scale across the state, visualizing how even specific towns will likely be impacted in the coming decades. To explore this tool, I encourage you to visit the MCAP web site.
MPR listener question:
With all the talk about drought this month and the recent Red Flag warnings by the National Weather Service, we were trying to remember our Minnesota wildfire history. It seems that some of the most historical wildfires in our state occurred in the month of October. Is this correct?
Answer:
Yes, indeed. There are at least three historical wildfire episodes that occurred in the month of October that often appear in various Minnesota history books. In October 1871 there were widespread prairie wildfires in western and southern Minnesota during early October. Sparse weather records suggest very dry conditions prevailed (there were also famous October wildfires in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois that month). On October 7 of 1910 was the famous Baudette fire roared across Lake of the Woods County and destroyed the towns of Baudette and Spooner. The fire occurred after prolonged drought and during a period of very low humidity. On October 10 of 1918 a spark from a passing train triggered a fire near Cloquet which spread to Moose Lake and killed over 400 people. Gusty winds and low relative humidity helped the fire spread with phenomenal speed.
Twin Cities Almanac for October 18th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 57 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 40 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).
MSP Local Records for October 18th:
MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 87 degrees F in 1950; lowest daily maximum temperature of 30 degrees F in 1930; lowest daily minimum temperature of 18 degrees F in 1972; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 1950, and record precipitation of 1.05 inches in 1979. Record snowfall is 1.3 inches in 1976.
Average dew point for October 18th is 39°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 65°F in 1971 and the minimum dew point on this date is 9 degrees F in 1972.
All-time state records for October 18th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 88 degrees F at Winnebago (Faribault County) in 1910 and at Montevideo (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1945. The state record low temperature for this date is 5 degrees F at Crookston (Polk County) in 1992. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.25 inches at Deep Portage (Cass County) in 1994. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 16.0 inches at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1916.
Words of the Week: Ice Plow
Before refrigeration, in the Pioneer settlement era and even the early 20th Century, ice plow were used to cut grooves in the ice over rivers, lakes, and ponds. These were sharp-bladded plows pulled by teams of horses that cut grided patterns across the ice. The ice blocks were sawed out, then floated to shore and taken by wagons or sleds to ice houses and caves.
Past Weather:
Northwestern Minnesota was hammered by heavy snowfall over October 18 of 1916. Many areas reported 5 to 8 inches of snow, while Roseau reported 9 inches, Hallock reported 12 inches, and Baudette reported 16 inches, all record amounts for so early in the autumn.
Large areas of western and southern Minnesota basked in sunshine with temperatures of 80°F or greater on the afternoon of October 18 in 1945. After a morning low of 46°F the temperature rose to 88°F at Montevideo.
Record low temperatures prevailed across most of the state on the morning of October 18 in 1972. Many communities reported temperatures in the teens or single digits. The high temperature at Babbitt (St Louis County) only reached 27°F with some snow on the ground.
Outlook:
Continued warm temperatures over the weekend and through Tuesday of next week. A slight chance for showers in the north early on Saturday, and again late Tuesday. Temperatures will return to closer to normal for Wednesday through Friday of next week.
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