Mid-November Weather Update

Mid-November Weather Update:

Most climate stations throughout Minnesota are reporting average temperatures for the month so far that range from 6°F to 8°F above normal. This follows the trend of warmer than normal weather established in both September and October. There have been several days that have brought maximum temperatures of 50°F or above, and a day or two of 60°F readings in some places.

This week brought more significant rainfall to the state. At mid-month, most Minnesota climate stations are reporting near normal or above normal precipitation so far this month. A number of climate stations in eastern counties have reported over 2 inches. Drought conditions continue, but eased up slightly as those areas of the state in at least Moderate Drought (84 percent) declined by 5 percentage points to 79 percent.

The persistent strong winds of November have yet to materialize except for Veterans Days (November 11) when wind gusts exceeded 40 mph across much of central and northern Minnesota. Some of the maximum winds that day:

55 mph at Grand Marais
52 mph at Moorhead
51 mph at Duluth and Hibbing
48 mph at International Falls
47 mph at Brainerd
45 mph at Park Rapids

Some of these strong winds produced large waves on Lake Superior. Stronger winds are expected to be more prevalent the second half of November.

Comment on the Climatology of Freezing Rain:

I want to comment on a couple of characteristics regarding this type of storm: the frequency of occurrence and the formation process.

Mid-November to late December is the period of time when we most frequently record freezing rainfall in Minnesota. Historically, the frequency of occurrence for freezing rain during this period is nearly equal to the total frequency of these events observed for the balance of the calendar year. In other words, about half of the annual observations of freezing rain fall within this period.

The process which produces freezing rain is almost always overrunning, that is warm, moist air running over the top of cold air near the surface. Water droplets formed in relatively warmer clouds aloft become supercooled falling through colder and colder layers toward the ground. When these droplets hit surfaces (pavement, trees, wires, etc) which are at subfreezing temperatures, they freeze, forming a glaze.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited:

The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported this week that Typhoon Usagi brought winds from 109 mph to over 140 mph to the far northeastern Philippines on Thursday this week. Storm surge was up to 3 meters with rainfall amounts exceeding 8 inches in some areas. The Western Pacific Ocean Basin has been active with tropical storms over the past two weeks.

NOAA reported this week that October of 2024 was the 2nd warmest in history globally going back 175 years. This adds to the unusually warm global climate momentum of 2024 so far, and NOAA projects that the year will likely finish as the warmest of record. Minnesota is also on pace to record one of its warmest years in history during 2024.

MPR listener question:

You reminded us recently that November is typically the cloudiest month of the year in Minnesota. Has there ever been a November when all of the days were cloudy?

Answer

Using the long-term Twin Cities climate record, I cannot find such a November. Perhaps one of cloudiest Novembers in history was in 1972 when 25 of the 30 days brought complete cloudiness or fog, 4 days were partly cloudy, and only one day was sunny. This November so far has brought 5 completely cloudy days, and 6 partly cloudy days to the Twin Cities.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 15th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 42 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 15th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 69 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily maximum temperature of 13 degrees F in 1932; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1°F in 1940; highest daily minimum temperature of 55 degrees F in 1930, and record precipitation of 1.58 inches in 1996. Record snowfall is 5.1 inches in 1956.

Average dew point for November 15th is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 2001 and the minimum dew point on this date is 0 degrees F in 1940.

All-time state records for November 15th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 76 degrees F at Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) in 1953. The state record low temperature for this date is -36 degrees F at Angus (Polk County) in 1911. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.68 inches at Stillwater (Washington County) in 1944. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 18.5 inches at Hovland (Cook County) in 2022.

Past Weather:

By far the coldest November 15 in Minnesota history was in 1911, when 30 counties reported subzero morning low temperatures, including a reading of -36°F at Angus (Polk County). With snow on the ground, the daily high temperature only reached -2°F at Hallock in northwestern Minnesota (Kittson County)

A winter storm brought 6 to 12 inches of snowfall to central and northern Minnesota on Sunday, November 15 of 1953. Many church services were cancelled as travel became quite difficult. It was by far the largest snowfall of an otherwise dry November.

Golf courses were open on November 15 of 1973 as sunny skies prevailed and temperatures rose into the 60s and 70s F across much of the state of Minnesota. After a morning low temperature below freezing, citizens of Canby enjoyed lunch outside in 75°F weather conditions.

Outlook:

Sunny, breezy, and warm over the weekend with above normal temperatures. Chance for rain in northern areas late on Saturday and into Sunday. Declining temperatures on Monday and Tuesday next week with chances for rain. Even colder by Wednesday and Thursday with some chance for snow in most places. Beginning on Wednesday a period of cooler than normal temperatures will settle in.