Wet Start to November

Wet Start to November:

Rainfall was certainly abundant over the first six days of November with many climate stations reporting measurable amounts on at least four days. Total rainfalls between 1 and 1.5 inches were fairly common across the state. Normal monthly precipitation for November typically ranges from 0.75 inches in the northwest to 1.75 inches in the southeast.

There have been a handful of record-setting daily rainfalls, including 1.73 inches at Delano (Wright County) on November 1st, and 1.05 inches at Caledonia (Houston County) on November 3rd. In fact, portions of Houston and Fillmore Counties in southeastern Minnesota have reported over 2 inches of rain so far this month. Their normal precipitation for the entire month is around 1.85 inches, so they have already had a wet month of November.

More significant precipitation is expected over much of the state next week as well, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlooks favor a wetter than normal and warmer than normal month of November for most of the state. In this context, we might expect to see continued improvement in the drought situation across Minnesota as we head for the first winter month of December. Soil temperatures around Minnesota remain in the 40s F and so will not freeze up soon. Thus, the soils will continue to absorb nearly all the precipitation that occurs. The drought situation for Minnesota improved slightly this week (Moderate Drought area down from 91% to 84%, Severe Drought area down from 51% to 46%), and may improve slightly again next week with rains expected this weekend.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited:

The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported this week that 2024 remains on a pace to set a new global temperature record for the warmest year. “Global average temperatures across the year are on track to end up more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, which would make 2024 the first calendar year to breach this symbolic mark”, according to the European climate service.

The Weather Underground featured an article about the changes in the National Weather Service Cold Weather Warnings and Advisories this winter. They will no longer be issuing Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories, but they will be called Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories. The criteria applied to Minnesota are still based on expect Wind Chill Values. For the Twin Cities Metro Area the Extreme Cold Warning Criteria will be an expected Wind Chill of -35°F or colder, and for a Cold Weather Advisory it will be -25°F or colder. For greater Minnesota, the Extreme Cold Warning Criteria will be -40°F or colder, and for the Cold Weather Advisory it will be -30°F.

A recent article from Science Advances documents how droughts in the western USA since the year 2000 have been primarily driven by high evaporative demand rather than precipitation deficits. The higher evaporative demand is from climate change inflating the seasonal temperatures. They conclude that “the unprecedented 2020–2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought ……., with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit.”

MPR listener question:

You have often mentioned that November is the month with the most cloud cover in Minnesota. Does that also lead to a smaller difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures?

Answer:

Historically speaking, there are more days with cloud cover during November than any other month. This condition tends to reduce heating of the air near the ground during the day and also prevents too much heat loss at night. The daily range of temperature, called diurnal fluctuation by climatologists, is from 20 to 30 F degrees much of the year in Minnesota. But in November it is typically only 14 to 16 degrees F. This is mostly due to increased cloud cover, but it is also due to the combined effects of shorter daylength, declining sun angle, increased atmospheric humidity, and generally greater wind speeds (keeping the air mixed).

In fact, the average difference between the overnight lows and daytime high temperatures so far this month is only about 11 degrees F.in the Twin Cities. On November 3rd (Sunday) the daily temperature spread was only 3 degrees F (high of 49°F, low of 36°F). These kinds of conditions tend to aggravate those who suffer from "seasonal affected disorder" (SAD) which is sometimes treated with light therapy.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 8th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 31 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 8th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 77 degrees F in 1999; lowest daily maximum temperature of 25 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of 1°F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 54 degrees F in 2020, and record precipitation of 1.51 inches in 1932. Record snowfall is 8.5 inches in 1943.

Average dew point for November 8th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 54°F in 1977 and the minimum dew point on this date is -3 degrees F in 1991.

All-time state records for November 8th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 83 degrees F at New Ulm 2S (Brown County) in 2006. The state record low temperature for this date is -17 degrees F at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1991. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.45 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 1945. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 16.0 inches at Vesta (Redwood County) in 1943.

Past Weather:

A slow=moving winter storm brought a mixture of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to many parts of Minnesota over November 7-8 in 1943. Many observers reported 7 to 15 inches of snow, while Redwood Falls and Marshall reported over 20 inches. Ice coated powerlines collapsed in some rural areas.

By far the coldest November 8 in state history was in 1991 when with abundant snow on the ground, most climate stations reported morning low temperatures in the single digits. Observers in over 50 counties reported subzero temperatures readings. The daytime high temperature at Grand Portage only reached 10°F that day.

The warmest ever November 8th occurred in 1999. Most climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures in the 70s F. It was 72°F as far north as International Falls, and in six counties the temperature reached 80°F or higher under bright, sunny skies.

Outlook:

Cloudy over the weekend with a chance for showers later on Saturday and into Sunday. Drier on Monday, but then a chance for showers returning for late Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures will generally track warmer than normal throughout the period.