Wetter Than Normal November Continues

Wetter Than Normal November Continues:

The pattern of above normal precipitation continued again over this past week, as many climate observers reported between 1 and 2 inches, and in some northeastern counties there were reports of over 2 inches. In addition, on Wednesday and Thursday of this week many observers reported from 0.5 inches to 3 inches of snowfall.

A large number of climate stations have now reported over 3 inches of rainfall for the month of November so far. Along the north shore highlands above Lake Superior, observers at Wolf Ridge ELC and Sliver Bay have reported over 5 inches, near record-setting November amounts for them. The current statewide average of 2.35 inches of precipitation for this month ranks as the 14th wettest November in state history and will only be added to over the next 8 days. The precipitation amounts so far helped the drought situation in the state as the area of the Minnesota landscape in Severe Drought declined by 29 percent from last week.

Despite the significant cool-down in temperatures this week, most climate stations continue to report an average monthly temperature that is from 6°F to 9°F above normal. Temperatures are forecast to run a little bit cooler than normal for the balance of November. Soil temperatures at the 4 inch depth remain mostly in the upper 30sd to low 40s F.

Minnesota Climate Adaptation Awards Nominations Solicited:

The Minnesota Climate Adaptation Partnership Program (MCAP) has put out a call for nominations for the 2025 Climate Adaptation Awards. These awards have been presented annually since 2014 and recognize exceptional achievements in climate resilience or climate justice through the development, advancement, or implementation of climate adaptation strategies. We know that celebrating success and showcasing the actions and leadership of our peers can help to accelerate adaptation across Minnesota, and beyond. Recipients have developed cutting-edge adaptation plans for their communities, supported project-specific implementation of adaptation investments, and served as leaders championing adaptation across their organizations. Awards are presented in five categories. Please review the procedures for the awards nominations at the MCAP web site and consider nominating worthy individuals or organizations by December 2nd.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The new seasonal weather outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center release this week favor a slightly cooler than normal December-February period across the western half of Minnesota, and equal chances for cooler or warmer than normal conditions in eastern Minnesota. The outlook also favors a wetter than normal winter season for most of Minnesota, with equal chances for wetter or drier than normal in the western counties.

Speaking of the Winter Outlook, there is an informative article this week by Jonathan Erdman of the Weather Underground about how to plan your winter travel using the seasonal outlooks. He talks about factoring in your favorite outdoor activities with the regional weather features that are expected to be above or below normal, such as snowfall for skiing, or taking advantage of low air fares if you are going somewhere expected to be rainy, but your planned activities will all be indoors anyway.

In this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin there is a comprehensive article about the changing climate of the Arctic. Accelerated climate change is evident in the loss of both sea ice and permafrost, changing both the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It is speculated that without drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, Arctic sea ice may be all but absent in the late summer season by 2080.

A Salute to Luke Howard, one of the Fathers of Meteorology

This name is still not known well outside meteorological circles. Luke Howard was an English chemist (pharmacist) who proposed in 1803 a system of cloud classification based on his own observations and sketches. This classification system is for the most part still used today, over 200 years later!

Using the botanical Linnean conventions (after Linnaeus the Swedish naturalist of the 18th century) to classify his observations of the "face of the sky" based on genera, species and varieties (or classes, orders, and suborders), Howard published his "Essay on the Modification of Clouds" in 1804. His scheme for classifying clouds was based on their appearance and the process of formation. There were three distinct types all derived from Latin words: cirrus (wispy hair or thread-like high clouds); cumulus (a heap or puffy cloud); and stratus (spreaded or blanket-like cloud). He also employed a Latin derived word for the rain cloud, nimbus. There were additional combination forms which he proposed as well including cirrocumulus, cirrostratus, and cumulostratus.

With some modifications, Howard's scheme of cloud classification was adopted as a standard in 1891 by the International Meteorological Organization, a non-governmental scientific group. Later, during the 1950s with some additional modification the government-based World Meteorological Organization adopted it as a standard for making cloud observations.

Howard was a chemist, a naturalist, an artist, and a devout Christian. Despite being one of the most respected scientists of his time, he maintained a humble attitude which is depicted

in his writings. He later authored "The Climate of London," and the first meteorological text book entitled "Seven Lectures in Meteorology." But he is best remembered for his studies of clouds. It has been speculated by historians, that his contemporary, the poet Percy Shelley, wrote "The Ode to the West Wind" (1819) and "The Cloud" (1820) based on an understanding of the water cycle obtained through reading Howard's works. Luke Howard is regarded as “the father of the clouds” by some weather historians.

MPR listener question:

You spoke last week on Morning Edition about entering the peak season for freezing rain, as well as for general cloudiness. Does that mean we typically record the least number of hours of sunshine this time of year?

Answer

Emphatically, YES. Our exposure to sunlight is at a minimum in November and December because of both the shorter days as well as persistent cloudiness. If we examine the historical climate data for the Twin Cities for example, it shows on an average of 39 percent possible sunshine in November and 42 percent in December. These are by far the lowest numbers of the year. Conversely, during summer season, the months of July and August show average percent possible sunshine to be 72 percent and 69 percent, respectively. So when the sun is out during November and December, most Minnesota citizens want to take advantage to be outside, at least for a little while.

BTW: cloud spotting and cloud gazing are not typical pastimes in November and December despite the abundance of clouds. This I because stratus or low layers of cloud are the most common types in these months, so it is almost like being covered all the time by a sheet or thin blanket. The more intriguing and artistic cloud forms seen in other times of the year, are all but absent.

Twin Cities Almanac for November 22nd:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 22nd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of 12 degrees F in 1921; lowest daily minimum temperature of -6°F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 45 degrees F in 2009, and record precipitation of 0.74 inches in 2016. Record snowfall is 5.5 inches in 1898.

Average dew point for November 22nd is 29°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 53°F in 1963 and the minimum dew point on this date is -7 degrees F in 1970.

All-time state records for November 22nd:

The state record high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F at Preston (Fillmore County) in 1990 and at St James (Watonwan County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -26 degrees F at Ada (Clay County) and at Park Rapids (Hubbard County) in 1896. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.18 inches at Willow River (Pine County) in 1898. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 13.0 inches at Pokegama Dam (Itascca County) in 1898.

Past Weather:

By far the coldest November 22nd was in 1896 when most climate stations in Minnesota reported morning temperatures that were subzero. There was also snow on the ground in most places, so even the daytime high temperatures were well below normal. The afternoon high temperature at Alexandria (Douglas County) only reached 8°F.

A fast-moving winter storm dumped 4 to 8 inches of snowfall across southern and central Minnesota on November 22 of 1898, just 2 days before Thanksgiving. Some central Minnesota communities reported over 10 inches.

The warmest November 22 in state history was in 1990. Many southern and western Minnesota communities saw afternoon temperatures reach the 50s and 60s F. Citizens in Goodhue, Mower, Fillmore, and Winona Counties enjoyed sunny skies and temperatures of 70° or greater. Since it was Thanksgiving Day, some families ate their turkey dinner outside.

Outlook:

It will be a mostly cloudy weekend with near normal temperatures and a chance for snow in northern areas later on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures will generally run cooler than normal next week with a chance for snow by Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving Day) in some areas.