More snow and rain leads to a wetter than normal December

More snow and rain leads to a wetter than normal December:

Many places in central and southeastern Minnesota reported 4 to 7 inches of snowfall on Thursday, December 19th. A few Red River Valley communities like Hendrum (Norman County) and Warren (Marshall County) reported 5 inches of snowfall. There were a number of climate stations that reported record snowfalls for December 19th, including Bird Island (Renville County) with 6.8 inches, New Prague (Scott County) with 7 inches, Winthrop (Sibley County) with 7 inches, and Rochester (Olmsted County) with 5.9 inches. In western Wisconsin, La Crosse reported a record snowfall of 6.6 inches.

Thursday’s snowfall when combined with the rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow of last weekend provide the wettest week of the month so far. With the additional precipitation of this week (both rain and snow) across the state, many climate stations are now reporting above normal amounts for the month and there are still 11 days to go. The wetter than normal amounts this month fit well with the strong trend over the most recent 20 years. In fact, 17 of the past 20 Decembers have been wetter than normal across Minnesota. Decembers of 2009, 2010, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023 are among the wettest 10 Decembers in history on a statewide basis. Wetter than normal Decembers is one of the strongest climate trends in the state.

Another strong climate trend is for warmer than normal Decembers. Since the year 2010 there have been only two colder than normal Decembers (2013 and 2022), and the average monthly temperature for the month has increased by nearly 5°F. Further, the Decembers of 2011, 2015, and 2023 are among the warmest nine months of December in state history and a statewide basis.

With the outlook favoring warmer than normal temperatures to prevail on 10 of the last 11 days this month, it looks as though this December will average somewhere around 4°F to 6°F above normal.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features an interesting article about NOAA’s report card on the Arctic climate. To quote: “For the 11th year in a row, the Arctic warmed more drastically than the rest of the world, a change that continues to bring cascading consequences to Arctic systems, wildlife, and residents.” Each year brings many new climate records to this region, and this rapid pace of climate change is expected to continue.

This week Chris Dolce of the Weather Underground features an article comparing the maximum 24-hour snowfalls by state. Minnesota shows a very high amount of 36 inches on January 7 of 1994 near Finland (Lake County) at elevation above Lake Superior. But some of the western states show very large amounts, including 75.8 inches in the Rockies of Colorado, and 67 inches in the Sierra-Nevada Mountains of California. Interestingly enough, the record 24-hour snowfall in Florida is 4 inches (March 6, 1954 at Milton).

The new NOAA Climate Prediction Center 3-month outlook for January through March shows a higher probability for cooler than normal temperatures in western portions of Minnesota, and a higher probability for wetter than normal conditions to prevail in eastern sections of the state. Only modest confidence is expressed in this outlook, but we’ll see if it materializes.

MPR listener question:

We have been following the forecast for the period between Christmas and New Years in hopes of seeing snowfall, so that we can use our cross-country skis. It is looking more and more like we may see some snowfall during that period here in the Twin Cities. What is the most snowfall between Christmas and New Years here in the Twin Cities.

Answer:

First of all, there have been several years when we have seen 5 or more inches of fresh snowfall between Christmas and New Years in the Twin Cities. As for the most ever, There were reports of 16.5 inches of snowfall between Christmas and New Years in 1982, and reports of 12.5 inches for the same period in 1911. So have those skis waxed and ready.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 20th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 14 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 20th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1967; lowest daily maximum temperature of -11 degrees F in 1916; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1916; highest daily minimum temperature of 39 degrees F in 1923, and record precipitation of 0.74 inches in 1902. Record snowfall is 4.6 inches in 2010.

Average dew point for December 20th is 9°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 44°F in 1967 and the minimum dew point on this date is -30 degrees F in 1963.

All-time state records for December 20th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 69 degrees F at Faribault (Rice County) in 1923. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1983. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Lutsen (Cook County) in 1990. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 13.02 inches at Le Sueur (Le Sueur County) in 1887.

Past Weather:

A slow-moving winter storm brought 5 to 10 inches of snowfall to many parts of Minnesota on December 20 in 1887. Many areas reported two to three feet of snow that December. Christmas family travel that year was by sled in rural Minnesota.

One of the warmest every December 23rds was in 1923, when in the absence of snow cover portions of southern and western Minnesota saw afternoon highs reach the 50s and 60s F. Faribault reached a high of 69°F, about 40°F above normal.

December 20 in 1983 was one of the coldest December days in history. Many areas reported low temperatures of -40 degrees F or colder. Waseca and Preston in southern Minnesota dropped to -30 degrees F, while the high temperature at Willmar only reached -15 degrees F.

Outlook:

Starting out cooler than normal on Saturday, then a prolonged warming trend starts on Sunday, bringing temperatures up to above normal levels for all of next week. There will be chances for snow by Thursday and Friday.