Preliminary Climate Summary for December of 2024

Preliminary Climate Summary for December of 2024:

With the expected warmer than normal last week of the month (to conclude next Tuesday), most climate stations in Minnesota will report a mean monthly temperature that is 3°F to 5°F above normal for December. This will mean that on a statewide basis December of 2024 will fall among the warmest 25 in state history. Extremes for the month ranged from 58°F at Granite Falls (Yellow Medicine County) on the 7th and at Winnebago (Faribault County) on the 8th to just -31°F at Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) on the 11th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the nation four times during December, on the 12th, 13th, 19th, and 21st.

Moisture was generally above normal during December in most places. Statewide precipitation average was close to 1 inche, well above normal. Many areas of the state reported from 1 to 2 inches of precipitation (liquid equivalent) and some areas along the north shore of Lake Superior reported over 2 inches. For snowfall, many areas of the state reported between 4 and 10 inches. There were some reports of 10 to 20 inches along the north shore areas of Lake Superior.

With the addition of a warmer than normal December to the climate of 2024, it is likely that the year will go down among the warmest three in state history, rivaling 1931, 1987, and 2012. Also, with the addition of a wetter than normal December, the climate record for the year 2024 is likely to show that it was among the 15 wettest years in state history, despite the autumn season Drought that prevailed across the state. Many climate stations reported annual precipitation over 40 inches. Faribault (Rice County) reported its 3rd wettest year in history with over 46 inches, while Wells (Faribault County) reported a record annual precipitation with 49.02 inches.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported this week that data provided by the Woodland Trust shows that climate change has dramatically affected the seasonality responses of many species. Certainly, spring has begun much earlier than it used to. Among other findings "Warmer weather at the end of winter tricks species like the frog into thinking it's time to start reproducing.” There is ample evidence that many other species are responding significantly to the changing seasonal shifts in climate as well.

Geophysical Research Letters published this week the first joint assessment between the European Space Agency and NASA of the massive loss of ice across the Greenland ice sheet. This assessment was derived from the ice monitoring satellites of both agencies which generally agreed in their estimates of total volume of ice lost since 2010.

MPR listener question:

With all of the record warm temperatures you and Cathy have spoken about this year, do you think that 2024 will be the warmest year in Minnesota history?

Answer:

Depending on how warm the final days of December are, this could be the warmest year in state history, surpassing both 1987 and 2012. It will surely be among the warmest 3 or 4 in history regardless. Here are the monthly departures for 2024 on a statewide basis. There are consistently positive and in some cases record-setting (Feb) or near-record setting:

January +9°F
February +16°F
March +5°F
April +3°F
May +2°F
June +1°F
July +1°F
August +1°F
September +8°F
October +6°F
November +6°F
December +3°F (approximated)

Arguably no other year shows this pattern of persistent warmth.

Twin Cities Almanac for December 27th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 27th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 46 degrees F in 1959; lowest daily maximum temperature of -9 degrees F in 1924; lowest daily minimum temperature of -24 degrees F in 1886; highest daily minimum temperature of 38 degrees F in 2003, and record precipitation of 0.70 inches in 1959. Record snowfall is 6.0 inches in 1971.

Average dew point for December 27th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 46°F in 1959 and the minimum dew point on this date is -34 degrees F in 1924.

All-time state records for December 27th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 54 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1994. The state record low temperature for this date is -50 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1993. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.50 inches at Fort Ridgley (Nicollet County) in 1856. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 22.0 inches at Island Lake 4E (St Louis County) in 2009.

Past Weather:

Frigid, arctic air had a grip on the state the morning of December 27 in 1933. Most places reported temperatures ranging from -20°F to -35°F. Five northern counties reported a temperature of -40°F or colder. With several inches of snow on the ground, even the daytime high temperatures were very cold, -16°F at Hallock and -13°F at Crookston.

December 27 of 1994 brought record warmth to many parts of southern and western Minnesota. Temperatures were in the 40s F in many areas and even reached the 50s F in three western counties where snow cover was absent or sparse.

Outlook:

Starting out warm and drizzly or rainy on Saturday, but then sunny later in the weekend. Temperatures well above normal through Monday. Mostly cloudy the rest of next week with temperatures moderating around normal or a few degrees above and little chance for precipitation.