Cold Prevails:
The persistent cold of February is not without precedent. About one year in four February delivers more subzero nights than January. This may be one of those years.Historically the Twin Cities records an average of 11 subzero nights in January and 8 subzero nights in February. This year, January brought 12 subzero nights, and if forecasts hold up, February will bring 12 subzero nights as well.
Similarly, the climate history at International Falls shows an average of 15 subzero nights in January and 11 subzero nights in February. This year January brought 19 subzero nights, and if forecasts hold up, February will bring 19 subzero nights as well.
In the National Weather Service daily headlines for this February, Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the nation three times so far, most recently with -40°F at Cook (St Louis County) on February 13th.
Temperatures so far this month are averaging from 4°F to 8°F below normal around the state. Though some northern climate stations have reported overnight lows of -30°F to -40°F over the past week, there have been few record low temperatures set. Among the few records set were:
-28°F at Ottertail on February 12th
-34°F at Floodwood on February 12th
-23°F at Madison on February 13th
-30°F at Brainerd on February 13th
As a result of the persistent cold temperatures soil frost depths have deepened over the last two weeks, and now range commonly from 25 inches to 35 inches of frozen soil.
It looks like the long February Cold Snap across Minnesota will come to an end by next weekend, and temperatures will rebound to above normal from February 23rd to the end of the month.
Weekly Weather Potpourri:
This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features an article about the prolonged and consistent upward trend in global temperatures which may be a signal that we have already exceeded the 1.5°C temperature increase globally that the Paris Agreement in 2016 hoped to avoid. June of 2024 marked the 12th consecutive month that global temperature anomalies exceeded the 1.5°C threshold, and both 2023 and 2024 were warmer than global climate model projections. These are very disturbing signals that the follow up actions to the Paris Agreement are not working.The Joint Typhoon Warning Center was tracking Tropical Cyclone Zelia this week as it headed toward Port Hedland in Australia. This was a dangerous Category 5 storm packing wind gusts up to 150 mph and creating sea wave heights of 35 to 40 feet. It was expected to bring big surf, heavy rains, and destructive winds over February 14th. Thankfully it was downgraded to a Category 3 storm as it made landfall near Port Hedland and did not cause as much damage as earlier expected according to the Australian Broadcast Corporation.
A recent research paper in the journal Science Advances documents the projected impacts of global climate change on lightning strikes and areas burned by wildfires. It is interesting to note that this research suggests more lightning strikes will be occurring in the mid-latitudes of North America and that overall annual burned area by wildfires may grow.
MPR listener question:
With all of the cold temperatures this month, we have been wondering when was the last winter when Minnesota reported a lowest temperature of -50°F or colder? Also, how many winters in Minnesota history have produced temperatures that cold?Answer:
We have not measured -50°F anywhere in the state so far this winter. The last time we did was February 14 (Valentine’s Day) of 2021 when the observer at Ely measured a morning low of -50°F. Before that, it was February 1 of 2019 when 4 northern climate stations reported -50°F or colder (including -56°F at Cook). Historically since 1895, there have been 27 winters when Minnesota has seen at least one day bring a temperature of -50°F or colder, that is about 21 percent of all years.Twin Cities Almanac for February 14th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 12 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).MSP Local Records for February 14th:
MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 50 degrees F in 1882; lowest daily maximum temperature of -5 degrees F in 1920; lowest daily minimum temperature of -25 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 2023, and record precipitation of 0.68 inches in 2023. Record snowfall is 6.9 inches in 2024.
Average dew point for February 14th is 11°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 42°F in 1954 and the minimum dew point on this date is -33 degrees F in 1946.
All-time state records for February 14th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F at Windom (Cottonwood County) in 1954. The state record low temperature for this date is -47 degrees F at Bagley (Clearwater County) in 1906. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.15 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1919. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 22.0 inches at Grand Marais (Cook County) in 1936.Past Weather:
With abundant snow cover, most Minnesota climate stations reported morning low temperatures ranging from -20°F to -40°F on February 14 of 1922. The afternoon high temperature only reached -4°F at Brainerd.With little or no snow on the ground on February 14 of 1954 afternoon temperatures soared into the 50s and 60s F across southern Minnesota. Some farmers were seen spreading manure and bailing straw in their fields.
February 14 of 2024 will be remembered as one of the snowiest Valentine’s Days in history, with scores of climate observers reporting 5 to 8 inches of snow, mostly falling during thee evening hours. For many parts of Minnesota it was the heaviest snowfall of the season.
Outlook:
Some chances for snowfall early on Saturday in central and southeastern areas of Minnesota, and then continuing colder than normal temperatures the remainder of next week statewide. There will be slight chances for snow on Monday, but mostly cold temperatures and dangerous Wind Chills, with many nights bring subzero readings.
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