Persistent cold expected for northern MN this month

Persistent cold expected for northern MN this month:

Many Minnesota citizens may have already noticed the temperature disparity between northern Minnesota climate stations and southern Minnesota climate stations so far this month magnified by the presence of more abundant snow cover in northern landscapes. Many parts of northern Minnesota started the month with 12 to 15 inches of snow cover. Several northern climate stations have reported morning lows ranging from -20°F to -26°F so far this month, and two of these stations, Forest Center (near Isabella) and Crane Lake have reported the nation’s coldest temperature on February 1st and 4th, respectively. Over the same period of time Winnebago (Faribault County) and Rushford (Fillmore County) where snow cover is zero, were reporting daytime high temperatures in the upper 40s F.

With additional snow expected this weekend to blanket most much of the landscape, persistent northwest flow and strong cold air advection will keep overnight low temperatures below zero all of next week for many northern areas of the state. For some areas from International Falls through Ely and over to Isabella, there will be a prolonged streak of overnight subzero lows, perhaps nearly two weeks in duration. The peak of the cold is likely next Monday through Wednesday when some daytime high temperatures up north may remain subzero as well. For context, International Falls climate data show an average of 16 days in February with subzero low temperatures. With the expected coming weather pattern, they are likely to measure 19 to 22 such days this month. It is also possible that International Falls will report subzero minimum temperatures for 18 consecutive days this month (Feb 3-21) which would tie the record for longest consecutive days in February with such readings (from 1956). That is remarkable persistence of cold, even for The Nation’s Icebox!

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC Weather Center features a video and narrative this week discussing the finding that January of 2025 was the warmest of record globally. This was a surprise to most meteorologists and climatologists because a La Nina Episode is in play in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which usually is associated with cooler temperatures. A real head scratcher, and perhaps a signal of the accelerating effect of climate change.

Jonathan Erdman of the Weather Underground reports this week that the northernmost Japanese island of Hokkaido has picked up near record-setting amounts of snowfall since Monday of this week. Some areas received over 47 inches of snow in just 12 hours. Erdman explains that this is not unlike the lake-effect snows experienced in the eastern Great Lakes region of the USA: "sea-effect snow" that is continuing this week in some areas, and this mechanism is similar to what produces heavy lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes……except in this case, bitter cold air from Siberia and Manchuria - where temperatures are well below zero - is dragged over the relatively warmer water of the Sea of Japan.”The heavy snows caused school cancellations, blocked roads, and delayed flights.

This week in the AGU-EOS Bulletin is a fascinating article about the obstructions to using good, referred climate change research and evidence for the public good brought by misused publications and misinformation that has become too prolific. It is well worth a read.

MPR listener question:

Recently I have heard people talking about February being a snowy month (at least in the context of this snow-starved winter so far). Is February very often our snowiest month in the Twin Cities?

Answer:

Of the 140 winters in the Twin Cities snowfall records (back to 1885), February has been the snowiest month 20 times, or just 14 percent of the time. Most recently it was the snowiest month of the season in 2019 with 39 inches recorded. The list below shows the frequency that each month of the snow season was the snowiest historically:
November 17 times (12 percent)
December 23 times (19 percent)
January 38 times (27 percent)
February 20 times (14 percent)
March 31 times (22 percent)
April 6 times (4 percent)

In five years, two or more months tied for most snowfall.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 7tht:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 26 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 10 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 7th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 53 degrees F in 1987; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1933; lowest daily minimum temperature of -29 degrees F in 1875; highest daily minimum temperature of 36 degrees F in 1925, and record precipitation of 0.94 inches in 1928. Record snowfall is 5.9 inches in 2019.

Average dew point for February 7th is 5°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 38°F in 1965 and the minimum dew point on this date is -32 degrees F in 1975.

All-time state records for February 7th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1987. The state record low temperature for this date is -53 degrees F at Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1899. The state record precipitation for this date is 1.75 inches at Lynd (Lyon County) in 1928. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 14.0 inches at Isler (Mille Lacs County) in 1937.

Past Weather:

One of the coldest ever winter days from the 1930s was on February 7 of 1933. Many communities saw record cold low temperatures ranging from -25°F to -45°F. Redby (Beltrami County), Big Falls (Koochiching County), and Warroad (Roseau County) reported -50°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only reached -25°F.

A slow-moving winter storm dropped heavy snowfall across central and northern Minnesota over February 6-7 of 1937. Many areas reported 12 to 16 inches, including St Cloud and Brainerd. Pigeon River in Cook County reported a record 17.0 inches.

Perhaps the warmest February 7th in state history was in 1987 when over 50 Minnesota climate stations reported record high temperatures for the date. Ten counties saw afternoon high temperatures in the 60s F. Many parts of the Minnesota landscape were snow-free at the time.

Outlook: 

Widespread snow on Saturday across the southern two-thirds of the state. Common amounts may be in the 3-6 inches range. Sunny and cooler on Sunday, then much cooler for the balance of next week with temperatures averaging well below normal, many subzero nights in northern counties.