Preliminary Climate Summary for March

Preliminary Climate Summary for March:

The story of temperature this month in Minnesota is the great range and disparity between northern Minnesota and southern Minnesota. Average monthly temperatures ranged from just 2°F above normal in some northern communities to 7°F in many southern Minnesota communities. Temperatures ranged from -20°F at Seagull Like (Cook County) on the 2nd to 87°F at Sherburn (Martin County) on the 28th. 28th. In fact, that was a new statewide high temperature record on March 28th, to go along with the new statewide high temperatures set earlier this month on the 10th (77°F at Granite Falls) and the 14th (79°F at Winona).

Within the statewide long-term climate station network, over 150 new daily high maximum temperature records were set during the month, with several locations reporting highs of 70°F or greater. In addition, over 40 climate stations reported at least one new record warm overnight minimum temperature record being set.

Among those long-term climate stations in Minnesota reporting a very warm month of March, the monthly average temperature will rank historically as follows:

MSP 11th warmest
Redwood Falls 11th warmest
Mankato 6th warmest
Rochester 7th warmest

The overall statewide average temperature will probably fall among the 12 warmest in history back to 1895.

Precipitation was mixed across the state, with some stations reporting above normal values, but most stations reporting below normal monthly precipitation through March 27th. However, with the expected wet weekend coming up that picture could change significantly, and most stations may report above normal monthly values of precipitation for March by Monday of next week.

Most areas of the state have reported between 1 and 3 inches of precipitation, with a few reports over 4 inches in south-central and southeastern communities. Of those reporting above normal precipitation, most of it was due to daily record-setting amounts during the first half of the month and record amounts the last weekend of the month.  For example, Wolf Ridge in Lake County reported a record 2.10 inches on March 5th, and the same day Wells in Faribault County reported a record 1.77 inches. Similarly on March 15th Collegeville in Stearns County reported a record 1.32 inches and Caledonia in Houston County a record 1.42 inches. Finally, on March 30th new record daily precipitation amounts were reported from Winnebago (2.93"), Zumbrota (2.29"), and Red Wing Dam (1.85").  

South-central Minnesota counties reported their wettest March in history with an average of 3.85 inches, and southeastern Minnesota reported their 5th wettest March with an average of 3.49 inches.  Some individual climate stations that reported their wettest March in history included:

Owatonna 5.36 inches

Winnebago 4.96 inches

Hastings Dam 4.32 inches

Wells 4.11 inches

The driest area of the state this month has been the northwest, where most climate stations have reported less than a third of an inch of precipitation. According to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor data, over two-thirds of Minnesota remains in Moderate Drought at months end, with about 8 percent of the landscape in Severe Drought. Thankfully, the entire first half of April is expected to be wetter than normal, a trend most farmers are hoping to see hold true, as Minnesota soils need the water.

A final word on the windiness of March. This month has arguably been one of the windiest months of March in recent memory, rivaling the windiness commonly expected in the months of April and November. Many climate stations have reported 12 or more days with wind gusts over 30 mph. Rochester reported 18 such days and Redwood Falls 17 days. In addition, several climate stations saw wind gusts over 50 mph. Such frequency of high winds is uncommon for Minnesota and may be a precursor to a very windy April, normally the windiest month of the year.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported this week on perhaps the worst ever outbreak of wildfires in South Korea. The fires started on March 21st and began to burn out of control in a hurry due to high winds and a drier than normal landscape. The have killed 27 people and displaced tens of thousands. Some rain is in the forecast for the coming days, but it is uncertain whether it will be enough to help control the fires.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney is moving across the Southern Indian Ocean south of the Cocos Islands this week. It is producing sustained winds of 110 mph with gusts up to 130 mph and producing sea waves of 35 to 40 feet. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center it is expected to remain out to sea and not threaten any occupied islands.

The staff of the Weather Underground revisit the historical weather trauma of Opening Day in Major League Baseball this week with stories about past events. Before the days of domed stadiums, more Opening Day games were affected by rain, snow, or cold temperatures. Even in recent years there have been some postponements due to snow in open air stadiums. The Minnesota Twins opened this week on Thursday, March 27 with a 3-game series on the road against the St Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals home field is Busch Stadium which is open air and looks out on the downtown and St Louis Arch. The first game on Thursday was delayed by rain and rain may be a disruptive element for the games on Friday and Saturday as well.

MPR listener question:

We are recent arrivals to the Twin Cities, moving here from New Hampshire last fall. Can you tell us when the Severe Weather Season is in this state and what to expect?

Answer:

Severe Weather Season in Minnesota is generally from April through September. We have to be aware and educated about the dangers of lightning, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding, tornadoes, high winds, large hail, and heat waves, as most have occurred historically over these months. The National Weather Service works with various media outlets to promote Severe Weather Awareness Week each spring. This year it will be April 7-11. I would encourage you to check out the NOAA-National Weather Service web site for more information. 

The frequency and severity of severe weather varies tremendously from year to year in Minnesota. In recent years we have been had to cope with a high frequency of large hail and heat waves within the state, both of which are tied to our changing climate.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 28th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 48 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 30 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 28th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 78 degrees F in 1946; lowest daily maximum temperature of 21 degrees F in 1899; lowest daily minimum temperature of -1 degrees F in 1923; highest daily minimum temperature of 51 degrees F in 1946, and record precipitation of 1.08 inches in 1896. Record snowfall is 6.5 inches also in 1894.

Average dew point for March 28th is 28°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 57°F in 2004 and the minimum dew point on this date is -9 degrees F in 1923.

All-time state records for March 28th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F at Bemidji (Beltrami County) in 1946. The state record low temperature for this date is -30 degrees F at Roseau (Roseau County) in 1923. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.60 inches at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1924. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 13.0 inches also at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1924.

Past Weather:

Arctic air invaded the state on March 28 of 1923 bring subzero temperatures to over half of Minnesota. Morning lows were -20°F or colder in five northern counties, and Roseau reported -30°F. The afternoon high temperature at Babbitt (St Louis County) only reached 6°F.

A late season winter storm dumped record-setting snowfall amounts over March 28-29 of 1924. Across the southern half of Minnesota amounts ranged from 8 inches to 18 inches. Both Canby and Maple Plain reported over 20 inches and vehicle traffic was brought to a standstill on may roads.

March 28 of 1946 brought a taste of summer as over 25 Minnesota communities reported afternoon high temperatures of 80°F or greater. Most of the rest of the state saw temperatures in the 70s F.

Outlook:

After record-setting temperatures on Friday, rain and thunderstorms will likely blanket the state Friday night and Saturday, with possible snow, sleet, and freezing rain in northeastern areas. Then, it is likely that slushy snow will develop later on Saturday night and carry over into Sunday. Temperatures will drop off to below normal over the weekend and continue into the first half of next week. There will be more chances for rain and snow by next Tuesday night and Wednesday.