Weather of April so far being kind to agriculture:
Most areas of northern Minnesota continue to show cooler than normal average temperature through the first 17 days of the month, as well as below normal precipitation, while southern parts of the state are showing near normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. However, the forecasts for the balance of April call for above normal temperatures and more frequent changes for rain on a statewide basis, so the month is likely to balance out to be warmer than normal and wetter than normal for most of us.
Average shallow soil temperatures (4-inch depth) have climbed into the upper 40s to low 50s F, and according to USDA reports over 70 of Minnesota shows adequate to surplus topsoil moisture. In this context, Minnesota farmers have been very active this week planting oats, wheat, and even corn. With the outlook for the rest of the month favoring warmer than normal temperatures (60s and 70s F), as well as on again, off again rain showers, Minnesota farmers will likely take advantage of every dry interval to get fields planted, even if it means 12-16 hour work days. Though the warmer temperatures and adequate topsoil moisture content provokes some optimism for crop producers, the threat of drought continuing remains a concern, as 47 percent of the state landscape is still in Moderate to Severe Drought.
Reminder about soil moisture recharge: two modes of redistribution:
Following the rainfall this month on mostly thawed Minnesota soils and the associated soil moisture recharge, the redistribution of that moisture will take place throughout the upper layers of soil by both capillary flow and gravity flow. Where the soil layers are saturated (holding as much water as the pore space will allow), excess water will be distributed deeper into the soil profile by the pull of gravity. Where soils are not saturated, capillary flow (a gradient flow from thicker water films in the soil to thinner water films in the soil) will still occur. Over a period of hours to days this redistribution will help ensure that moisture is stored at deeper root zone layers for plants to use later in the coming growing season.
Weekly Weather Potpourri:
In this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin there is a comprehensive article that describes the global loss of glacial ice over recent decades. It is a magnitude of freshwater loss than has been historically underestimated. Alaska is one of the areas that is losing the most glacial ice mass decade by decade, showing a net loss of nearly 9 percent in glacial ice over the period from 2000 to 2023.
According to the Australian Broadcasting Service, Cyclone Errol was expected to come ashore in northwestern Australia (near the Dampier Peninsula) on Friday afternoon, bringing strong winds and some heavy rains. Peak wind gusts were near 95 mph on Thursday this week, with wave heights of 22 feet, but the storm was expected to weaken before going ashore.
There is an interesting article this week on the Weather Underground web site about April snowfall. April tends to be the snowiest month of the year in the northern and central Rockies, where abundant water vapor from spring storms is converted to snow at the colder and higher elevations. In addition, the Black Hills of SD also average over 29 inches of snowfall in April. Average snowfall in April typically ranges from 1 inch to 4 inches in Minnesota, but has been as high as 50.8 inches at Duluth (2013).
MPR listener question:
We recently heard the news about proposed federal budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate services. What is your opinion about this?
Answer:
Indeed, some of the NOAA sponsored Regional Climate Centers web sites (Midwest Climate Center and High Plains Climate Center) went dark on April 17th, and others are slated to do the same by mid-June. This is just part of the proposed dismantling of NOAA climate services. Like many of my fellow atmospheric and climate scientists, I am extremely dismayed by this for a number of reasons:
-We could lose widespread public access to climate data
-We will diminish our ability to do climate analysis for specific clients and infrastructure, degrading the prospects to make critical decisions about agricultural practice, energy and water needs, transportation disruption, public health workloads, fire danger monitoring, drought monitoring, as well as fisheries and wildlife management.
-This will diminish our ability to do climate research that examines impacts of climate change, and provides us with useful knowledge to build resilience to climate change so we can protect and sustain our natural resources and society infrastructure.
I certainly hope that these proposed cuts do not become permanent.
Twin Cities Almanac for April 18th:
The average MSP high temperature for this date is 58 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).
MSP Local Records for April 18th:
MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 89 degrees F in 1985; lowest daily maximum temperature of 31 degrees F in 1953; lowest daily minimum temperature of 21 degrees F in 1953; highest daily minimum temperature of 61 degrees F in 2005, and record precipitation of 1.04 inches in 2004. Record snowfall is 6.4 inches also in 2013.
Average dew point for April 18th is 33°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 64°F in 2004 and the minimum dew point on this date is 3 degrees F in 1988.
All-time state records for April 18th:
The state record high temperature for this date is 94 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County) in 1985. The state record low temperature for this date is 2 degrees F at Isabella and Gunflint Lake in 1983 and again at Red Lake Agency in 1990.. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.80 inches at Bingham Lake (Cottonwood County) in 1898. The statewide snowfall record for this date is 13.0 inches at Beaver Bay (Lake County) in 1869.
Past Weather:
A late season snowstorm delivered 5 to 9 inches of snow to many areas of northern Minnesota on April 18 of 1928. In fact, it was a snowy April for many communities in Minnesota in 1928, as about 10 percent of all climate stations reported 20 or more inches of snow.
Minnesota’s warmest April 18th was in 1985 when most areas of the state afternoon temperatures in the 80s F. In 15 counties the temperature hit 90°F or greater. Many farmers were out working their fields.
Very cold air greeted most residents of Minnesota on the morning of April 18, 2001. Many places reported morning lows in the teens and twenties F. In some northern areas the morning lows were in the single digits. The daily high temperature at Orwell Dam (Otter Tail County) only reached 33°F.
Outlook:
Cool, but sunny to start the Easter Weekend. Warmer temperatures but increasing clouds later on Sunday with a chance for rain mostly in the southern half of the state. There will be some chance for rain Monday through Thursday with mostly above normal temperatures. It looks warm and dry towards next weekend.
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