Climate signature for first half of July

Climate signature for first half of July:

Through July 16th temperatures around the state have been averaging from 1°F to 2°F above normal, with several days reaching into the 90s F. Only areas along the north shore of Lake Superior have seen temperatures close to normal for the month so far.

Rainfall through the first half of July has been mixed across the state. Many north-central and northeastern communities have reported 4 to 5 inches or more. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the only areas of the state left in at least Moderate Drought at mid-summer are portions of Kittson, Roseau, and Lake of the Woods Counties in the far north.

Lastly, there have been numerous air quality alerts issued during the first half of July, more in northern counties than southern counties, and all related to wildfire smoke coming from Canada.

By the way, from the NOAA Climate Outlook Models, it appear the balance of July will bring warmer than normal and wetter than normal conditions to most of Minnesota. 

Anniversary Week for Minnesota's Top Rainstorm:

Today (July 18) is the anniversary of perhaps the most prolonged intense rainfall ever recorded in the state. This thunderstorm complex occurred in 1867 over western and central Minnesota, but was especially heavy in parts of Douglas, Pope and Stearns Counties, affecting the pioneer communities of Osakis, Westport, and Sauk Centre. Beginning late on Wednesday, July 17th, lasting all day July 18th, and into the early morning of Friday July 19th, heavy thunderstorms drenched the landscape with 30 to 36 inches of rainfall. Unfortunately, measurements of the storm were not made by official rain gages in those days, but several people did record measurements via buckets and barrels which filled up. According to Tom St Martin, Minnesota weather historian, George B. Wright, a pioneer land surveyor in the area, documented the event and reported on it in some detail to the Minnesota Academy of Natural Sciences years later (1876). In his account, the Pomme de Terre, Chippewa, and Sauk Rivers, normally creeks at that time of year, became lakes several miles wide. The storm generated runoff caused the Minnesota River and Mississippi River to rise several feet, washing out bridges and logging booms right through the St Paul area and down towards Hastings and Red Wing. The total number of logs washed away was estimated to exceed 25 million. The mosquito population was reported as the worst ever for the balance of that 1867 summer.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The United Kingdom Environmental Agency has declared drought in portions of central England with hosepipe restrictions imposed for some areas to limit watering lawns and gardens. This is the most widespread summer drought condition since the summer of 2022. Some forecasters are expected drier than normal conditions to prevail through at least the middle of next month according to the BBC.

The Weather Underground reports that the NOAA National Weather Service has issued more Flash Flood Warnings to date (mid-July) across the USA than any previous year going back to 1986. Over 3000 Flash Flood Warnings have been issued so far this year, and there have also been the second most number of flash flood emergencies declared. Rains have been especially heavy in parts of the Ozarks and Southern Plains. 

MPR listener question:

We are avid MPR listeners and live near Benson in Swift County. Our family always attends the Minnesota State Fair for the 4-H and FFA activities and livestock judging. What kind of weather do you expect for the State Fair this year and will you be doing the State Fair Weather Quiz again? 

Answer:

Wow! That is a tough one. The Minnesota State Fair (August 21 to September 1st) is nearly 5 weeks away. Most of the outlook models for that time period favor warmer than normal temperatures and less than normal rainfall. You probably should plan for warm weather, and bring those umbrellas just in case, after all it usually rains on 3 days during the 12-day fair.

By the way, the 29th edition of the MPR State Fair Weather Quiz with Cathy Wurzer and I will be at noon on Monday, August 25 from the MPR stage (corner of Judson and Nelson) at the fairgrounds. Please drop by and see if you can participate and win a prize. Also, we will be doing Public Televison’s Almanac Program from the State Fair on Friday, August 22nd at 11am from the same location. . 

Twin Cities Almanac for July 18th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 84 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 66 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for July 18th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 101 degrees F in 1940; lowest daily maximum temperature of 60 degrees F in 2000; lowest daily minimum temperature of 49 degrees F in 1873; highest daily minimum temperature of 80 degrees F in 2011; and record precipitation of 2.94 inches in 1895. There has not been any snowfall on this date.

Average dew point for July 18th is 62°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 80°F in 1966 and the minimum dew point on this date is 35 degrees F in 2009. 

All-time state records for July 18th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 109 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1940. The state record low temperature for this date is 30 degrees F at Kelliher (Beltrami County) in 2003. The state record precipitation for this date is 7.50 inches at Ft Ripley (Crow Wing County) in 1867. No snowfall has occurred on this date. 

Past Weather:

Record-setting high temperatures were reported from 20 counties on July 18 of 1940. Many observers reported afternoon high temperatures of 100°F or greater. It was 59°F at the Grand Marais Harbor at the same time that it was 109°F at Beardsley in western Minnesota. Thankfully the hot spell was short-lived.

July 17-18 of 1952 brought strong and damaging thunderstorms to north-central Minnesota. Many observers reported 4 to 6 inches of rain and flash flooding. Some areas in Crow Wing and Aitkin Counties reported 8 to 10 inches of rain, along with large size hail.

On the morning of July 18 in 2003 temperatures were in the 30s F across much of northern Minnesota. Frosts were reported in portions of Carlton, St Louis, and Beltrami Counties. Daytime high temperature were in the 60s in many communities along the north shore of Lake Superior. 

Outlook:

Mostly dry weekend coming up with temperatures a bit cooler than normal. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night into Monday with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Continuee modest chance for showers and thunderstorms on most days next week, as temperatures warm back up to above normal levels. Air quality will be better for most of next week.