August starts cool and dry for most of the state

August starts cool and dry for most of the state:

The first week of August has been generally cooler than normal or close to normal and generally drier than normal around the state. No frosts have been reported yet. Rainfall has bee highly scattered and mostly light. Most areas have reported less than a quarter of an inch so far. However, thunderstorms brought some amounts of 1 inch or greater to parts of western Minnesota over Monday through Wednesday this week. Warren (Marshall County) reported a record daily total rain of 1.80 inches on Tuesday and on Wednesday morning Sabin (Clay County) reported a record daily rainfall of 3.52 inches, while Glenwood (Pope County) reported a record daily rainfall of 2.21 inches.

The outlook models all favor a return of warmer and wetter than normal conditions for the mid part of August.

BTW: today’s date, August 8th is the only historical date during the month that Minnesota has never reported a frost. All other days of the month have brought at least one frost to parts of northern Minnesota going all the way back to the 1880s. 

Remembering Minnesota’s Wettest August 125 Years Ago:

August of 1900 was unlike any other August in our climate history with respect to rainfall. Over half of the days brought measurable rain to most of the state. The rain also fell in heavy doses, with many 2, 3, and 4 inch daily amounts.

The statewide average rainfall for the month was 6,80 inches, but many climate stations reported over 8 inches for the month. Detroit Lakes (Becker County) reported nearly 11 inches, while Hoveland (Cook County) and Long Prairie (Todd County) reported nearly a foot of rain. Alexandria in Douglas County reported an incredible 16.52 inches of rain and most farmers in the area lost their crops to flooding or drown out. The damage to agriculture was extensive across central and northwestern Minnesota, as the week of August 5-11 brought 5 to 10 inches of rain to many areas. Harvesting of wheat and oats was suspended or abandoned in many areas. 

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

AGU-EOS Bulletin this week reports that the Trump Administration is planning to shut down two satellite programs that monitor and provide data about carbon dioxide. This is illegal in the context of the Congressionally funded program, but is likely to happen nevertheless. The proposed cuts will terminate data from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory Satellite Program and from the Carbon Observatory Program aboard the International Space Station. Members of Congress are fighting these cuts, but they are expected to occur anyway. This will be devastating with respect to continued assessment of climate change evidence.

The BBC Weather Center features an interesting article this week by long-time forecaster Carol Kirkwood about reasons why meteorologists sometimes get it wrong. It is thoughtful and enlightening with respect to the complexities and probabilities that meteorologists have to sort through every day. There is also the need for better communications by meteorologists as they invoke new AI technology to assist them in forecasting.

This week the Weather Underground web site featured an interesting article about the increased frequency and longevity of extreme heat episodes in the desert southwest, namely the Phoenix area. Climate change is the culprit and expected to continue to make for longer and more intense Heat Waves in that area of the USA. Many national parks in the region have been forced to close for some days because of the extreme heat.

MPR listener question:

Over the years we have been impressed by the number of places you report climate records for. This made us wonder how many volunteer daily temperature and precipitation observers are there across the state of Minnesota? 

Answer:

These numbers have varied over the years, but currently there are about 150 volunteer observers reporting measured daily temperatures, and over 1400 reporting daily measured precipitation. These represent relative large numbers of volunteers when compared to other states.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 8th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 82 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 64 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August 8th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 96 degrees F in 2010; lowest daily maximum temperature of 62 degrees F in 1888; lowest daily minimum temperature of 47 degrees F in 1888; highest daily minimum temperature of 77 degrees F in 2001; and record precipitation of 2.22 inches in 1987. There has not been any snowfall on this date.

Average dew point for August 8th is 59°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 76°F in 2010 and the minimum dew point on this date is 37 degrees F in 1927. 

All-time state records for August 8th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 105 degrees F at Wheaton (Traverse County) in 1936 and at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1958. The state record low temperature for this date is 33 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1898 and at Thorhult (Beltrami County) in 1964. The state record precipitation for this date is 6.20 inches at Chaska (Carver County) in 2009. No snowfall has occurred on this date. 

Past Weather:

Thunderstorms brought 2 to 4 inches of rainfall to western Minnesota communities over August 8-9 of 1943, disrupting what was expected to be a good small grain harvest. There was some hail damage as well. Most harvesting was delayed until the second half of the month.

The morning of August 8th in 1964 brought very cool temperatures to northern Minnesota, with a number of readings in the 30ss F. No frosts were reported, but the afternoon high temperature at Winton in St Louis County only reached 61°F.

August 8 of 1983 brought a real Heat Wave to Minnesota with most areas of the state reporting afternoon temperatures in the 90s F. It was in the 90s F across the Iron Range as well. In twelve western Minnesota counties the temperature reached 100°F or greater. 

Outlook:

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than normal over the weekend with modest chances for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue warm most of next week, with slight chances for showers, mostly later each day. Towards next weekend it will become more hot and humid with a chance for more Heat Advisories.