A Cool, Wet, and Windy Week in October

A Cool, Wet, and Windy Week in October:

Since last Friday, the weather has been much more like past autumn seasons. Many daytime high temperatures have been in the 40s and low 50s F, with multiple nights of frosts. In fact, nearly all areas of the state have now seen at least one frost for the month. Temperatures are expected to rebound to above normal levels for the weekend, then return to near normal levels or slightly above normal levels for the remaining October days next week.

This past week also brought multiple days with rain, mostly smaller amounts. Many northern areas reported over an inch of rain, while Canadian border climate stations like International Falls, Little Fork, and Baudette reported over 2 inches of rain. Some north-central and northeastern climate stations also reported a trace of snow, and an observer near International Falls reported 0.1 inches of snowfall on Thursday morning (October 23). Despite the rainfall, the area of Moderate Drought in central Minnesota expanded slightly to encompass 22 percent of the landscape.

The other feature of the weather since last Friday that has been very conspicuous is the windiness. Most areas of the state have reported 4-5 days with wind gusts over 30 mph, and some days with gusts over 40 mph. On Tuesday, October 21st a few climate stations reported gusts over 50 mph. This is not uncommon for winds to pick up during the second half of October. (See below).

Up until this week, the weather conditions of late September and earlier October (above normal temperatures, low humidities, and absence of rainy days) had made for a favorable harvest season for Minnesota farmers. Crops had dried down in fields prior to harvest, and little artificial drying was needed before storage or transporting them for shipment. Most crops are harvested now, and farmers will be soil testing, and waiting for cooler soil temperatures to apply fall fertilizer like anhydrous ammonia or urea. Farmers will also welcome further fall season rains to recharge soil moisture conditions. 

15th Anniversary of the Historical October 26 of 2010 Storm in Minnesota:

This storm, technically called a mid-latitude cyclone was record-setting in both scale and intensity. The storm diameter was close to 1200 miles, wind gusts over Lake Superior ranged from 61 mph to 78 mph, and wave heights on the big lake ranged from 20 feet to 27 feet. The storm set a new statewide barometric pressure reading of 28.21 inches at Bigfork in Itasca County. Many of this storm’s attributes were analogous to a Class 3 hurricane. Forecasts by Environmental Canada and the NOAA-National Weather Service were very good and effective in keeping all lake boats and shipping vessels in safe harbor during the storm. So not loss to shipping.

The storm, coming from the southwest, intensified as it approached Lake Superior. Over half of Minnesota’s climate stations reported wind gusts over 60 mph. A storm of this scale brought widespread precipitation, in many areas ranging from 1 to 3 inches. Two Harbors reported 5 inches, while places like Cloquet, Brainerd, and Wolf Ridge reported 4 or more inches. Duluth reported nearly 3.40 inches of precipitation, St Cloud over 2 inches, and MSP over 1 inch. There was snow embedded in this storm as well. Many central and northern areas reported from 1 to 4 inches of snow, while some north shore climate stations reported over 7 inches.

This storm was not unlike the famous November Gale that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald ore carrier on November 10 of 1975. The wind and wave structure on Lake Superior was close to the same. BTW: I will be speaking about the meteorological attributes of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm at a public presentation on November 12th at noon at the Landmark Center in St Paul for those who are interested. 

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features an article about improving sub-season and seasonal weather forecasting. There is great potential to improve this scale of forecasting through AI applications and the integration of wider scientific disciplines. The need to better serve economic sectors with this type of forecasting is a powerful driver to this endeavor as well.

The BBC reported earlier this week on efforts to find tree species that will be more resilient to climate change. As northern latitude landscapes warm, some tree species are likely to disappear but others will have a competitive edge to survive. Foresters say that species such as oak, alder, coastal redwood, and Corsican pine have a better chance at survival. A tree inventory is being done on public lands to examine the composition of current forests and assess where more resilient specifies might be planted.

The Weather Underground reported on 14 different weather-related billion-dollar disasters that have occurred through the first 6 months of 2025. These are all tornado or severe storms, except for the wildfire outbreak in southern California during January which caused an estimated $61 billion in damage. Thankfully none of these disasters occurred in Minnesota. Since 1980, there have been 417 documented billion-dollar weather-related disasters in the USA.

MPR listener question:

We live in Richfield, and with all the wind earlier this week, we wondered what is the maximum wind speed that has every occurred in October? 

Answer:

Maximum measured wind speed in the month of October for the Twin Cities was 55 mph measured on October 27 of 2010 (the backside of the storm described earlier in the blog). 

Twin Cities Almanac for October 24th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 54 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 38 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 24th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 80 degrees F in 1989; lowest daily maximum temperature of 32 degrees F in 2020; lowest daily minimum temperature of 15 degrees F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 59 degrees F in 2000; and record precipitation of 1.00 inches in 1899. Record snowfall for this date is 0.9 inches in 1981.

Average dew point for October 24th is 35°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 62°F in 2000 and the minimum dew point on this date is 11 degrees F in 1960. 

All-time state records for October 24th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 88 degrees F at Fairmont (Martin County) in 1891. The state record low temperature for this date is -5 degrees F at Isabella (Lake County) in 1976. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.64 inches at Winona (Winona County) in 2023. A record 12.0 inches of snow fell at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) on this date in 1919. 

Past Weather:

The coldest October 24 was in 1976 when most areas of the state reported morning low temperatures in the teens and twenties, Many northern areas reported single digit lows, while Tower bottomed out at 0°F and Isabella reported -5°F. The afternoon high temperature at International Falls only reached 27°F.

Warmest October 24 in state history was 1989 when over 80 climate stations set daily high temperature records. Most areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures in the 70s F, but some western Minnesota communities reached 80°F or higher. It was the last such high readings for the year.

October 24-25 of 2001 brought high winds, heavy snows, and a blizzard to parts of Minnesota. Many southern and central areas of the state reported wind gusts over 50 mph. Blizzard conditions prevailed in western Minnesota counties, and the heaviest snows occurred in the Red River Valley area. Argyle (Marshall County) reported 14 inches of snowfall, while Thief River Falls (Pennington County) reported 12 inches. Many other areas received 5 to 8 inches of snow.

Strong thunderstorms brought 1.5 to 2.0 inches of rainfall to parts of southeastern Minnesota on October 24 of 2023. Rochester reported 2.26 inches and Winona reported 4.64 inches of rain. 

Outlook:

Warming to above normal temperatures under partly sunny skies over the weekend. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s F. Increasing cloudiness late Sunday, and then a chance for showers on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal most of the balance of next week.