A Warm Start to October

A Warm Start to October:

Continuing the trend of late September (September of 2025 was among the 5 or 6 warmest in history on a statewide basis), October has started very warm for Minnesota. Many climate stations reported afternoon temperatures in the 80s F to start the month. Crookston (Polk County) reported a record-tying high temperature of 86°F on October 1st. Then, on October 2nd, 80°F temperatures were even more widespread across the state. Glencoe (McLeod County) set a record high temperature with 87°F, while both Redwood Falls (Redwood County) and St James (Watonwan County) hit 90°F. It appears that the very warm temperatures will last through the first weekend of the month, with some days bringing 90°F temperatures or higher. The weather pattern will chance on Monday with temperatures falling back closer to normal through the middle of next week. On balance, most of the weather guidance favors above normal temperatures to dominate most of October, though probably not record-setting.

A dry period is also evident, as there is little chance for rain until perhaps Thursday of next week. A small area of Moderate Drought has reappeared in north-central Minnesota according to the US Drought Monitor this week.  The very dry air will lead to extremely low relative humidity values for Monday and Tuesday of next week. Afternoon humidity may be in the teens and twenties. This time of year the landscape, including most gardens, can dry out fairly rapidly. So, watering of plants this fall is a good idea. 

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Last week the United Kingdom Met Office described a recent study that suggests with climate change, the incidence of extreme large hail ( 2 inch diameter or larger) may increase over southern Europe, even though overall frequency of hail may diminish with changes in the dynamics of the upper atmosphere. There findings show that for southern Europe the chance of extremely large hail storms may increase, particularly for the autumn and winter seasons.

The Weather Underground web site features a brief synopsis this week about how NOAA and National Weather Service functions may be affected by the government shut down. Most operations will continue at normal staff levels, providing needed forecast and outlook guidance, along with observational data. However access to some of the data archive services used by researchers, engineers, and historians may go dark during the shut down.

The Glacier Monitoring of Switzerland released a report that 2025 brought tremendous loss of glacier ice across Switzerland. They estimate approximately a 3 percent loss of ice volume country wide, continuing a trend of the past two decades. Since 2015 about a quarter of the glacier ice volume has been lost.

MPR listener question:

We were wondering what are the all-time statewide record high and low temperatures for the month of October in Minnesota? 

Answer:

The extreme temperature range in the month of October is very wide in Minnesota. The extremes are 98°F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) on October 5 of 1963 and a bitter -16°F at Roseau (Roseau County) on October 26 of 1936. This is strong evidence for keeping a highly variable wardrobe in your closet at home during the month of October! 

Twin Cities Almanac for October 3rd:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 65 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for October 3rd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees F in 1997; lowest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1935; lowest daily minimum temperature of 26 degrees F in 1996; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 2005; and record precipitation of 2.62 inches in 1903. There was a trace of snowfall in 1935.

Average dew point for October 3rd is 42°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 69°F in 2005 and the minimum dew point on this date is 18 degrees F in 1989. 

All-time state records for October 3rd:

The state record high temperature for this date is 95 degrees F at Ada (Norman County) in 1922, and at Milan (Chippewa County) in 1938. The state record low temperature for this date is 9 degrees F at Embarrass (St Louis County) in 1999. The state record precipitation for this date is 4.50 inches at Pine River (Cass County) in 1903. A record 0.3 inches of snow fell at Virginia (St Louis County) on this date in 1935. 

Past Weather:

Strong thunderstorms brought hail and heavy rainfall to parts of Minnesota over October 3-4 of 1903. Many observers reported 2 to 4 inches of rain, while Cass County reported up to 5 inches.

Most areas of the state reported afternoon temperatures from 80°F to 95°F on October 3 of 1938. Duluth Harbor reported a high temperature of only 55°F. 

Frost occurred in every corner of the state on October 3 of 1989. Many northern areas reported morning low temperatures in the teens. Gaylord (Sibley County) reported only 19°F. Itasca State Park reported a daytime high of only 34°F. 

Outlook:

Warm, breezy, and sunny over the weekend. Some near record high temperatures may occur as well. There will be a chance for rain in far northern areas of the state. Temperatures will cool down closer to normal by Monday, and there will be slight chances for rain by the middle of next week statewide. Temperatures will warm again towards next weekend.