November continuing warm and dry

November continuing warm and dry

As we conclude the first three weeks of the month, the monthly temperatures continue to track 2 to 4 degrees warmer than normal in most areas of the state. Forecast models continue to favor warmer than normal temperatures for Minnesota through at least Tuesday of next week. Then the last 5 days of the month are expected to bring cooler than normal temperatures, with a chance for snow by the weekend following Thanksgiving.

Monthly precipitation totals continue to be sparse, as most locations report less than a half inch of precipitation so far this month. In fact, some areas are on a pace to record one of their driest months of November in history. According to the US Drought Monitor, Moderate Drought has expanded across portions of central and northeastern Minnesota affecting 26 percent of the state landscape, while Severe Drought has expanded across Pine, Carlton, Itasca, and St Louis Counties, representing 4 percent of the state landscape. Soils have yet to freeze up in most areas of the state and will absorb an precipitation that occurs. But there is little chance for precipitation in the state until the last couple of days of the month.

Winds continue to live up to November standards, with many days bringing wind gusts of 30 mph or greater. In fact, a number of climate stations have reported 10 or more days with such winds, including Rochester, Mankato, Redwood Falls, Brainerd, and Moorhead. Winds are expected to pick up and be strong again as we progress towards the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported on Wednesday this week that snow and ice brought travel difficulties to many parts of the UK, especially in Wales and Scotland where there were many school closures. Besides icy roads, some areas reported up to 3 inches of slushy snow.

An article on the Weather Underground web site quotes from some recent research that questions
the validity of the world record high temperature measured at Death Valley in 1913. That record temperature of 134 degrees F measured on July 10 of 1913 may have been taken from a thermometer that was not properly shielded from the sun by a wooden instrument shelter. This would invalid a record that has stood for over 100 years. The study was published by the American Meteorological Society.

MPR listener question:

Last week you reported on the historical years when no snow occurred in the Twin Cities during the month of November. But what about the high snow years in November? Have we had many years deliver 20 or more inches of snow during November?

Answer:

Not many. In 1886 November snowfall in the Twin Cities totaled 19.7 inches. Since then, a 20 inch or greater November snowfall total has occurred only 5 times. In rank order they are:

21.8” in 1947
23.9” in 1985
26.3” in 1940
30.4” in 1983
46.9” in 1991

Twin Cities Almanac for November 21st:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 39 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 25 degrees F (plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 21st:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1990; lowest daily maximum temperature of 5 degrees F in 1880; lowest daily minimum temperature of -11 degrees F in 1880; highest daily minimum temperature of 42 degrees F in 1963; and record precipitation of 0.54 inches in 1994. Record snowfall for this date is 4.8 inches in 1989.

Average dew point for November 21st is 24°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 58°F in 1990 and the minimum dew point on this date is -9 degrees F in 1978.

All-time state records for November 21st:

The state record high temperature for this date is 72 degrees F at Tracy (Lyon County) in 1962 and at Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2012. The state record low temperature for this date is -25 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1978. The state record precipitation for this date is 3.04 inches at Lake City (Wabasha County) in 1996. A record 16.0 inches of snow fell at Montevideo (Chippewa County) in 1975.

Past Weather:

A winter storm brought heavy snow to portions of southern and western Minnesota over November 20-21 of 1975. Many areas reported 8 to 14 inches of snow, and a few places received between 15 and 24 inches. Some roads and highways in western Minnesota were closed for a time.

Mid-winter cold gripped the state on November 21 of 1978. With 5 to 10 inches of snow on the ground, over half of the state saw subzero temperatures in the morning hours. The afternoon high temperature at Crookston only made it to -1 degrees F.

November 21st of 2012 was one of the warmest in history, as more than 50 climate stations in Minnesota reported new record daily maximum temperatures. Many people took their lunch break outside to get some fresh air in 60 degrees F or higher temperatures. A few places hit the 70 degree F mark.

Outlook:

Sunny, mild, and dry over the weekend and early next week. Increasing clouds late Monday, then chances for rain and/or snow for Tuesday and Wednesday. Cooler temperatures prevail throughout the Thanksgiving weekend.