November Starts Warm and Dry

November Starts Warm and Dry:

November has started warm over the first 6 days, with temperatures around the state averaging from 3°F to 5°F warmer than normal. Many areas of the state have reported multiple days with afternoon temperatures in the 50s F. Over 50 climate stations reported afternoon high temperatures in the 60s F on Tuesday this week (November 4). I would remind readers that Minnesota has recorded 5 consecutive warmer than normal Novembers, so the current pattern follows recent trends. Despite a cool down in temperatures over the weekend, temperatures are expected to rebound by the middle of next week to above normal values and remain so for a number of days.

Most areas of the state have reported less than a tenth of an inch of rain so far this month. There are a few exceptions, as both Pelican Rapids and Roseau have reported close to 1 inch. No snow reports so far this month. An area in central Minnesota that represents 22 percent of the state landscape remains in Moderate Drought, while portions of Carlton and Pine Counties are now in Severe Drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor release earlier this week.

So far, November has lived up to its reputation for windiness. Many climate stations have reported 4 or 5 days with wind gusts of 30 mph or greater. Some have reported wind gusts greater than 40 mph. 

Edmund Fitzgerald Storm Presentation on November 12th:

Speaking of wind, I will be speaking about the meteorological attributes of the Edmund Fitzgerald Storm at a public presentation on November 12th from noon to 1pm at the Landmark Center in St Paul for those who are interested. I will talk about the historical context of the storm, the severe conditions n Lake Superior, and improvements in forecasting and communications in the years since. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the sinking of that vessel in a violent storm on November 10 of 1975. Hope to see you there.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Over the past week, the journal Bioscience released a State of the Climate Report for 2025. The report highlights the degradation of several key environmental factors, and the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions, along with record level frequency and extent of wildfires. Quoting from one of the major conclusions of the report: “The accelerating climate crisis is now a major driver of global instability. Extreme weather is causing widespread impacts and direct loss of life, while also driving resource scarcity, displacement, and civil unrest. These challenges are further compounded by weakening international cooperation and reductions in foreign aid. These converging pressures are straining national governments, multilateral institutions, and communities around the world. A strategy that embeds climate resilience into national defense and foreign policy frameworks is urgently needed. Without it, cascading risks may overwhelm systems of peace, governance, and public and ecosystem health.”

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is expected to strengthen and become a typhoon over the weekend. It is head towards the Philippines and may make landfall there north of Manilla by Monday of next week with winds as high as 120 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The Weather Underground web site features a discussion about possible lake-effect snowfalls across Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie this weekend, especially on Sunday. These would be the first lake-effect snowfalls of the season, and some areas may get several inches of slushy snow.

A study published in Nature-Climate and Atmospheric Science suggests that continuing climate change may lead to increased annual precipitation over areas on the African continent. The researchers used several climate models to examine the changing dynamics of precipitation over the continent as it warms. They found that for the Sahara Region, as well as South-Eastern and South-Central Africa, there is a high probability that precipitation will increase. This suggests that climate adaptation, especially in agricultural practices will be needed much more in the future. 

MPR listener question:

You and Cathy have been speaking a lot about the windiness this year, and of course we all know how windy November can be. Do you know what the record wind gust in November is for the Twin Cities? 

Answer:

According to the records I have seen, the maximum wind gust for November in the Win Cities was on November 18 of 2016 when a gust of 59mph was registered. There have been two other recent Novembers (2021 and 2022) when wind gusts have exceeded 50 mph as well. 

Twin Cities Almanac for November 7th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 46 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 9 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for November 7th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 74 degrees F in 2020; lowest daily maximum temperature of 15 degrees F in 1991; lowest daily minimum temperature of -6 degrees F in 1991; highest daily minimum temperature of 60 degrees F in 2020; and record precipitation of 1.67 inches in 1915. Record snowfall for this date is 4.2 inches in 1947.

Average dew point for November 7th is 30°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 62°F in 1915 and the minimum dew point on this date is -10 degrees F in 19916. 

All-time state records for November 7th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 80 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County), Madison (Lac Qui Parle County), and Redwood Falls (Redwood County) in 2020. The state record low temperature for this date is -23 degrees F at Wild River State Park (Chisago County) in 1991. The state record precipitation for this date is 2.30 inches at Garrison (Crow Wing County) in 1991. A record 14.0 inches of snow fell at Marshall (Lyon County) in 1943, and at Virginia (St Louis County) in 1947. 

Words of the Week: Sierra, Tango, and Zulu

These are the code words used in AIRMETs (acronym for "AIRman's METeorological information), including statements and advisories) routinely issued by the Aviation Weather Center and the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit and Volcanic Ash Advisory Center.

Sierra refers to a message about IFR (instrument flight rules) weather or mountain obscuration. Tango refers to a message about turbulence, strong surface winds, and windshear. Zulu refers to a message about icing and freezing levels in the atmosphere. All of these messages are of critical importance to pilots and updated every six hours, or more frequently if needed. 

Past Weather:

A slow-moving early winter storm moved across Minnesota over November 7-8 of 1943 bringing high winds and heavy snows. Many areas reported 8 to 16 inches of snowfall. Bird Island, Redwood Falls, Marshall, and Faribault, all reported over 20 inches. A large number of rural churches saw few parishioners or remained empty on Sunday November 7th because of the storm.

November 7 of 1991 was arguably the coldest in state history, with over 100 climate stations reporting new daily record cold minimum temperatures. Many areas of the state reported low temperatures in the subzero category from -4°F to -16°F. With over a foot of snow on the ground, the daily high at Windom (Cottonwood County) only reached 8°F.

The warmest November 7th in state history was in 2020, when 115 Minnesota climate stations reported new record high temperatures for the day. Many areas reported afternoon highs in the 70s F. It even reached 80°F in southwestern Minnesota. Many area golf courses were open for business. 

Outlook:

Much cooler over the weekend with a chance for snow on Saturday. There will be lingering chances for snow in the north on Sunday. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through at least Monday. Then for the rest of next week, it looks like temperatures will return to near normal or a few degrees above normal levels and it will mostly be dry during the week.