A warm, then bitter cold January:

A warm, then bitter cold January:

It appears that January weather this year will be divided into a warm half and a cold half. The first half of the month (January 1-16) saw temperatures around the state average between 7°F and 11°F above normal, with many areas reporting some daytime highs in the 40s F and a few places reporting at least one daytime high temperature of 50°F or higher. Now the second half of January (January 17-31) will be quite the opposite, with temperatures likely averaging 9°F to 14°F below normal. In fact, some areas may see close to record cold temperatures and certainly dangerous Wind Chill conditions. Some communities may record the coldest January daytime maximum temperatures since the winter of 2019. BTW, Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states 5 times so far this month, most recently earlier this week on January 20th when it was -30°F at Indus (Koochiching County) a few miles west of International Falls. There will likely be more such reports during the second half of the month, with forecast lows of -30°F or colder in northern sections of the state in the coming days.

Arctic cold began to prevail in portions of northern Minnesota on Thursday (January 22nd) this week, with some remarkably cold Wind Chill conditions in the mid-afternoon. During the afternoon and overnight (Thu-Fri), many areas reported Wind Chill conditions of -50F or colder. Here are some examples of the Wind Chill reports:

-63°F Grand Marais Airport (Cook County)
-54°F at Fosston (Polk County) , Duluth, and Park Rapids (Hubbard County)
-53°F at Thief River Falls (Pennington County)
-52°F at Bemidji (Beltrami County) and International Falls (Koochiching County)
-51°F at Wadena (Wadena County)
-50°F at Roseau (Roseau County) and Rochester
-47°F at MSP

By Friday morning some very low actual temperatures were observed, including:

-37°F at Kabetogama (new record for the date)
-35°F at Floodwood
-34°F at Badoura
-33°F at Ely
-32°F at Embarrass, Park Rapids, and Gunflint Lake
-30°F at Kimball

The reading of -37°F was the coldest in the 48 contiguous states for Friday.

Weekly Weather Potpourri

The BBC Weather Center reported this week on the record-setting snowfalls in Eastern Russia, notably the Kamchatka Peninsula, where 6 to 7 feet of snowfall has occurred this month. Winds have driven the snow into drifts of 10 feet or higher, burying vehicles and one-story buildings. Public transportation was suspended in some areas until roads could be cleared.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a record or near-record breaking Heat Wave to cross Australia over the coming weekend, bring daily high temperatures between 110°F to 118°F. -This weather pattern will raise the risk of fire danger in many areas and impact the Australian Open Tennis Tournament in Melbourne this weekend and early next week. Some daytime highs are expected to range from 100°F to 104°F.

MPR listener question:

We see that forecasted high temperatures for the Twin Cities in coming days are subzero. How often does this occur?

Answer:

The last time was January 20 of last year (2025) when the daytime high temperature in the Twin Cities was -6°F. With urbanization and the associated “Heat Island Effect”, along with climate change impacts, the frequency of January daytime maximum temperatures being below 0°F has declined. For example, for the 19th Century climate records in the Twin Cities, the frequency of subzero daily maximum temperatures in January was 9 percent of all January days; for the 20th Century it was 7 percent of all January days; and so far for the 21st Century it has only been 2 percent of all January days. In fact, 16 of the 21st Century Januarys have produced not a single day with a subzero maximum temperature in the Twin Cities. This is quite a decline in January cold. BTW two of the coldest Januarys in Twin Cities climate history were in 1888 (11 days with subzero daily high temperatures, and a low of -41°F on the 21st) and 1912 (12 days with subzero daily high temperatures, and 8 nights of -20°F or colder).

Twin Cities Almanac for January 23rd:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 23rd:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1942; lowest daily maximum temperature of -16 degrees F in 1936; lowest daily minimum temperature of -34 degrees F in 1886; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1909; and record precipitation of 0.85 inches in 1871. Record snowfall for this date is 5.7 inches in 1949

Average dew point for January 23rd is 6°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 40°F in 1909 and the minimum dew point on this date is -42 degrees F in 1963

All-time state records for January 23rd:

The state record high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F at Itasca State Park (Clearwater County) in 1942. The state record low temperature for this date is -55 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1936. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 1.78 inches near Mankato (Blue Earth County) in 2018. A record 17.0 inches of snow fell at Stillwater (Washington County) in 1982.

Past Weather:

Arctic cold prevailed across Minnesota on January 23 of 1936. With snow depths ranging from 10 to 20 inches, many climate stations reported record-setting morning low temperatures from -30°F to -40°F. The afternoon high temperature at both Detroit Lakes and Campbell only reached -30°F, for one of the coldest days in history at those communities.

Record warmth prevailed across much of Minnesota on January 23 of 1942. Over 70 climate stations reported record-setting high daily maximum temperatures, many in the 50s F. There was little or no snow on the ground across the Minnesota landscape.

A winter storm brought record-setting snowfalls to much of Minnesota over January 22-23 of 1982. Many areas reported 14 to 19 inches of snow. The Twin Cities received 20 inches. In fact over the six days from January 20 to January 25 that year, successive winter storms dumped from 25 to 40 inches of snow. Many communities across the state reported 35 to 50 inches of snowfall that January.

Outlook:

Bitterly cold weekend with prolonged hours of subzero temperatures. Some moderation in temperatures next week, but still well below normal for this time of year, with daily highs above zero, and many subzero nights. Little chance for snow.