Preliminary Climate Summary for January of 2026

Preliminary Climate Summary for January of 2026:

As mentioned last week, the temperature pattern in January was distinctly warmer than normal for the first half of the month, and colder than normal for the second half of the month. Most climate stations in Minnesota reported a mean monthly temperature that was 2°F to 5°F colder than normal. Extremes ranged from 53°F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) and Marshall (Lyon County) on the 13th to -43°F at Brimson and Kabetogama (St Louis County) on the 24th. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the 48 contiguous states 9 times during the month.

Most areas of the state reported a slightly above normal number of nights with subzero temperatures. For example, MSP recorded 12 such nights (the 50 yr average is 10), while International Falls recorded 21 such nights (the 50 yr average is 19). Despite the cold second half of January, only a modest number of daily low minimum temperature records were set (perhaps 25) within the state climate station network. Eight climate stations reported a low of -40°F or colder during the month. There were several days when the National Weather Service issued Cold Weather Advisories or Excessive Cold Warnings because of dangerous Wind Chill conditions. A number of areas reported at least one day with Wind Chill conditions of -50°F or colder.

On a statewide basis, this January is only the 3rd time in the last 15 years when colder than normal mean monthly temperatures have been reported from Minnesota!

Precipitation totals during January were mixed with many climate stations reporting above normal totals (over 1 inch), but also many others reported below normal amounts, some less than half an inch. What was especially unusual was the record daily rainfall over January 6th, 8th, and 9th. Over 20 climate stations, mostly in the southern half of Minnesota, reported record daily rainfall amounts, but without any associated snowfall. Some notable daily record rainfall amounts included 0.69 inches at MSP on the 6th, 0.53 inches at Rochester on the 8th, and 1.27 inches at Caledonia on the 9th.

Total January snowfall around the state was highly variable as well. Many areas in the north recorded from 15 to 20 inches of snowfall. Near Grand Marias, at Gunflint Lake, and at Detroit Lakes observers reported over 20 inches. Conversely, several southern Minnesota climate stations reported less than 3 inches of snowfall.

Winds were generally stronger than normal in most areas of the state during January. Many climate stations recorded 13 or more days with wind gusts of 30 mph or stronger. A number of climate stations recorded wind gusts over 50 mph as well.

By the end of January, soil frost depths around the state ranged from 12 to 15 inches in most places and snow cover persisted over about two-thirds of the state landscape, with over a foot present in some of the northeastern counties.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

This week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin features a well written article that presents several arguments for the preservation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO. NCAR is under the threat of severe budget cuts and fragmentation by the Trump Administration. The author clearly describes the threats to the safety and security of the American public should these cuts go into effect. Areas of American life that will be detrimentally affected by these cuts include agriculture, transportation, military readiness, and preparation and response to weather-related disasters. This is a must read article in my opinion.

The BBC reported this week on a polar bear study conducted on the Norwegian Arctic archipelago of Svalbard. Researcher have discovered that polar bears have become fatter and healthier since the early 1990s, all while sea ice has steadily declined due to climate change. The bears have less sea ice for hunting seals, but on the other hand they have become more successful at hunting land-based prey such as reindeer and walruses, whose populations have blossomed in recent decades. Nevertheless, researchers are concerned that with continued climate change and loss of sea ice, the polar bears will be required to roam further distances to find terrestrial prey for their food source.

Weather Underground meteorologists are predicting that this weekend and early next week residents of Florida will experience the coldest temperatures in at least 15 years. This cold outbreak will be due to descent of an Arctic air mass from the north. Low temperatures in the panhandle area of Florida may reach the high teens or around 20°F during the period, while low temperatures around Orlando and Vero Beach may only be in the middle 20s F. Even Miami may see some morning lows in the middle to upper 30s F. They caution that this cold spell may inflict damage on citrus and berry crops in some areas of the state.

MPR listener question:

In recent weeks you have spoken about climate change impacts on January mean temperatures in Minnesota and the associated upward trend. Can you tell us what is the long term trend in mean temperatures for all the months of the year in Minnesota?

Answer:

From our statewide climate database, I can approximate the long-tern trend (1896 to 2025, 130 years) in mean monthly temperatures as follows:

January, +5 to +5.5°F
February +6 to +6.5°F
March +5 to +5.5°F
April +1.25 to +1.5°F
May +2 to +2.5°F
June +2 to +2.5°F
July +1.25 to +1.5°F
August +1.25 to +1.5°F
September +2 to +2.5°F
October +1.25 to +1.5°F
November +3.5 to +4°F
December +5 to +5.5°F

These numbers naturally vary for individual climate stations around the state. Positive temperature trends are generally greater in the northern half of Minnesota than the southern half.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 30th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 30th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 48 degrees F in 1989; lowest daily maximum temperature of -19 degrees F in 1887; lowest daily minimum temperature of -30 degrees F in 1887; highest daily minimum temperature of 35 degrees F in 1931; and record precipitation of 0.49 inches in 1878. Record snowfall for this date is 6.4 inches in 2014

Average dew point for January 30th is 2°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 34°F in 1923 and the minimum dew point on this date is -34 degrees F in 1951.

All-time state records for January 30th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 58 degrees F at Pipestone (Pipestone County) in 1931 and at Fairmont (Martin County) in 2025. The state record low temperature for this date is -52 degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) and Leech Lake (Cass County) in 1899. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 2.00 inches at Crane Lake (St Louis County) in 1927. A record 12.0 inches of snow fell at Whitewater (Winona County) in 1872.

Past Weather:

By far the coldest January 30th in state history was in 1899. Most areas of the state recorded morning low temperatures from -20°F to -40°F. Both Pokegama Dam and Leech Lake recorded morning lows of -52°F. With abundant snow cover, the afternoon high temperature at Tower (St Louis County) only climbed to -31°F.

A winter storm brought heavy snow to many parts of southern Minnesota on January 30 of 2001. Many observers reported from 6 inches to 10 inches of new snow. Both Madison (Lac Qui Parle County) and Browns Valley (Traverse County) reported over a foot of new snow. Some schools were closed in western Minnesota due to the storm.

January 30 of 2025 brought some record-setting warm weather to many parts of southern Minnesota. With little or no snow cover, climate observers in 20 counties recorded afternoon high temperatures of 50°F or greater. Several golf courses opened for business that day and some even held tournaments.

Outlook:

Temperatures will climb over the weekend, and Saturday will be mostly sunny. Saturday night through Sunday will see increasing cloudiness, warmer temperatures but a good chance for snow statewide. There will be another chance for snow on Tuesday, then temperatures will warm to above normal levels towards the end of next week, with another chance for snow. Temperatures will climb above the freezing mark in some areas..