Very damp, icy start to January:

Very damp, icy start to January:

Many climate observers have already reported precipitation of a half inch to one inch this month, and commonly monthly normal precipitation for January as a whole is half an inch to an inch. January snowfall so far has been less than 4 inches in most places. A few areas in the north like International Falls, Ely, Kabetogama, and Grand Marais have reported 6 to 8 inches of snow.

More problematic for travel and for schools has been the icy conditions brought on by freezing rain and freezing fog. Many areas reported 2-3 days of such conditions this week as temperatures hovered 6°F either side of 32°F. There were a number of car accidents as well as pedestrian slips and falls. At least the howling winds of December have not recurred again this month.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office provided details about the freezing rains over January 5-6 this week and how impactful it was.

More thawing temperatures will occur Monday and Tuesday of next week, as daytime temperatures may climb well into the 40s F over a large area of the state. This will perhaps melt some of the snow and ice. Then colder air and a chance for snow will encompass the second half of next week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

There is an excellent article in this week’s AGU-EOS Bulletin about advances in snow water content monitoring using satellite-based radar systems. The use of this technology has great potential for advancing the ability to predict snowmelt runoff in remote watersheds around the world. This has implications for better forecasting of water supplies in arid regions as well.

The BBC reported earlier this week (Jan 7) on a powerful winter storm (named Goretti) brought rain and snow to many parts of the United Kingdom. It was also dangerously windy, with gusts up to 99 mph. Tens of thousands were left without power. Train services in Cornwall and Devon were cancelled for a time, and the Birmingham Airport was shut down for a time as well.

For football fans, the Weather Underground web site this week features detailed forecasts for the six NFL playoff games over the coming Saturday through Monday period. It looks like winds and rains could affect some of the games and that the Buffalo Bills vs the Jacksonville Jaguars in Florida on Sunday afternoon will enjoy the best weather.

MPR listener question:

From long time MPR journalist and political reporter Mike Mulcahy, “how unusual is it for the Twin Cities to get three quarters of an inch of rain on a single January day? And is such winter rain becoming more common, given the changing climate?”

Answer:

Great question Mike. The MSP Airport reported a record precipitation of 0.69 inches earlier this week on January 6th. Only a trace of snow was reported that same day. Please bear in mind that the current 30-year normal or average January total precipitation for MSP is 0.89 inches, so that is a lot of rain in one day, in fact the most that has ever been recorded in one day in the Twin Cities during the month of January without measurable snowfall.

For that same date, January 6th lots of places reported over half an inch of rain. Some examples:
Cottage Grove 0.81”
Richfield 0.79”
Afton 0.78”
Hastings 0.72”
Apple Valley 0.70”

With climate change and a warmer January today than in the historical past, many areas are seeing more frequent January rainfall events without measurable snowfall. For example: the Tin Cities climate records from 1901 to 1925 show that during January there were 28 dates when rainfall occurred without measurable snowfall; while if we examine the most recent 25 years of Januarys we find that rainfall has been recorded on 40 days without any measurable snowfall. That is a 43 percent increase in frequency of such events.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 9th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 9 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 9th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 49 degrees F in 2012; lowest daily maximum temperature of -14 degrees F in 1886; lowest daily minimum temperature of -32 degrees F in 1977; highest daily minimum temperature of 34 degrees F in 2012; and record precipitation of 0.31 inches in 1924. Record snowfall for this date is 3.8 inches also in 1924

Average dew point for January 9th is 3°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 42°F in 1939 and the minimum dew point on this date is -40 degrees F in 1977

All-time state records for January 9th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 59 degrees F in Lake Wilson (Murray County) and Lamberton (Redwood County) in 2003. The state record low temperature for this date is -49 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1930. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 1.70 inches at Beaver Bay (Lake County) in 1873. A record 17.0 inches of snow fell also at Beaver Bay (Lake County) in 1873.

Past Weather:

Bitter cold gripped Minnesota on the morning of January 9th of 1930. All areas of the state reported subzero temperatures, with many areas in the north measuring -40°F or colder. The afternoon high temperature at Hallock (Kittson County) only climbed to -23°F.

A slow-moving winter storm brought heavy snow to many parts of Minnesota over January 8-9 of 1969. Many parts of central and norther Minnesota reported 8-12 inches of snowfall. On the Iron Range and along the north shore of Lake Superior, some areas reported 15 to 25 inches. There were scores of school closures from this mid-week storm.

The afternoon of January 9th in 2003 brought record-setting high temperatures to many areas of the state. With little or no snow on the ground and sunny skies, many southern and western communities in Minnesota reported temperatures in the 50s F.

Outlook:

Blustery over the weekend with near normal temperatures and a chance for snow early on Saturday. Dry with more sunshine on Sunday. It will be much warmer for Monday and Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness by midweek with a chance for snow. Then cooler temperatures towards next weekend.