Preliminary Climate Summary for February 2026

Preliminary Climate Summary for February 2026:

Despite a NOAA Climate Prediction Center Outlook last month that suggested February would be colder than normal in Minnesota, the measured climate data show that we were significantly warmer than normal. Most climate stations report a mean monthly temperature for February that ranges from 5°F to 9°F above normal. Extremes for the month were 63°F at Marshall (Lyon County) on the 16th to -29°F at Seagull Lake (Cook County) on the 3rd. Within the statewide climate station network, there were 138 daily record high maximum temperature records set or tied, and there were 34 daily record high minimum temperature records set or tied. Most of these occurred during mid-month, with over 45 daily temperature records reported around the state on a very warm Valentine’s Day (February 14. Marshall (Lyon County) reported 11 days with a high temperature of 50°F or greater and two days of 60°F or higher.

Overall, the statewide average temperature for this February will be close to 20.9°F, about 8.8°F above normal, and the 15th warmest in state history back to 1895. For the Twin Cities, the February average temperature will be close to 27.0°F, the 12th warmest in history.

Though the vast majority of days during the month were dry, precipitation was generally greater than normal in northern areas of the state, near normal in east-central counties, and below normal elsewhere., especially portions of far southern Minnesota. Many areas reported between 1 and 2 inches of total precipitation for the month. In the northern counties a few areas reported over 3 inches. Snowfall was scarce in the southeastern counties, but very abundant in the northeast, especially along Lake Superior. Hovland reported nearly 46 inches, while Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center reported 32 inches. Several other areas of the north reported over 20 inches of snowfall for the month. Within the state’s climate station network there were 25 daily record high amounts of snowfall reported, mostly from the storm over February 18-19. By month’s end, snow depths across southern Minnesota mostly ranged from zero to 4 inches, while in the north they ranged mostly from 8 inches to 24 inches. There were a few spots in the northeast where snow cover was over 30 inches.

Some areas of the state saw very strong winds prevail, especially on February 17 and 18 when many places reported wind gusts over 50 mph, and some northern areas saw 60 mph wind gusts or greater. Moorhead and Rochester both reported wind gusts of 30 mph or greater on 13 days, while Redwood Falls reported such wind gusts on 14 days.

Current outlooks tend to favor a warmer and wetter than normal March, but we’ll see.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

Sunday and Monday, February 22-23, brought blizzard conditions to portions of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern USA. Many areas reported wind gusts over 50 mph, some over 60 mph, and a few areas reported wind gusts over 70 mph. Snowfall amounts of a foot or greater were common, and some areas of NY, NJ, RI, CT, and MA reported over 20 inches. The Weather Underground web site featured a comprehensive storm summary.

A recent paper published in Science Advances documents errors in previous satellite-based assessment of autumn snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. This is an important revelation in that previous research based only on the satellite-based observations had indicated an earlier and more extensive trend in autumn snow cover. But with the corrections in the data, the trend analysis reveals a declining trend in the autumn season snow cover, more inline with a warming trend in the autumn season.

MPR listener question:

What fraction of our March precipitation in the Twin Cities falls in the form of snow and what fraction falls as rain?

Answer:

This would take considerable study to answer precisely. Normal March precipitation totals 1.68 inches in the Twin Cities. Examining the climate records since 1950 shows that about 49 percent of all March days bring precipitation, roughly 15 days during the month. The frequency of days that bring both rain and snow is about 20 percent, and the frequency of days that bring only rain (no snow) is about 29 percent. Of course, we sometimes have mixed precipitation (snow, sleet, freezing rain, or rain all in one storm).

Twin Cities Almanac for February 27th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 33 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 18 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February27th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 57 degrees F in 2016; lowest daily maximum temperature of -1 degrees F in 1962; lowest daily minimum temperature of -22 degrees F in 1879; highest daily minimum temperature of 37 degrees F in 1983, and record precipitation of 1.01 inches in 1981. Record snowfall for this date is 5.5 inches also in 1893.

Average dew point for February 27th is 15°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 42°F in 1958 and the minimum dew point on this date is -24 degrees F in 2014.

All-time state records for February 27th:

The state record high temperature for this date is 71 degrees F at Wells (Faribault County), at Austin (Mower County), and at Albert Lea (Freeborn County) in 2024. The state record low temperature for this date is -40 degrees F at Warroad (Roseau County) in 1913. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 2.35 inches at Comfrey (Brown County) in 1971. A record 18.0 inches of snow fell at Blooming Prairie (Steele County) and at Wabasha (Wabasha County) in 1893.

Past Weather:

A big, slow-moving winter storm passed over Minnesota on February 26-27 of 1893. Much of the southeastern part of the state was buried in 15 to 20 inches of snowfall. Portions of Steele County and Wabasha County reported over 20 inches of snow with huge snow drifts. February of 1893 was one of the snowiest in history for southeastern Minnesota with some counties receiving over 30 inches for the month.

Arctic cold descended on the state for February 27 of 1913 bringing subzero morning low temperatures to most areas. Some areas in the north fell to between -30°F and -40°F. The afternoon high temperature at Fosston (Polk County) only climbed to -7°F.

With no snow cover and bright sunshine, February 27 of 2024 brought recording-setting afternoon high maximum temperatures to dozens of communities across Minnesota. Over three dozen climate stations reported temperatures in the 60s F, while observers in 7 southeastern counties reported afternoon temperatures of 70°F or higher.

Outlook:

Breezy with snow early on Saturday in many places (mostly south), as temperatures fall to cooler than normal. Remaining cooler than normal on Sunday, then a warm-up begins on Monday, sending temperatures to above normal values for the balance of next week. There will be a chance for rain/snow by Wednesday and Thursday.