Cold and Dry Start to May

Cold and Dry Start to May:

The month of May has started out colder than normal. Most climate stations report an average monthly temperature through the first 8 days that is 6°F to 9°F cooler than normal. Many areas of the state have seen multiple frosty nights. In fact, a a few northern counties have reported low temperatures from 15°F to 19°F. Frosts have occurred as far south as Caledonia and Albert Lea. Fortunately after this coming Monday (May 11) temperatures are expected to warm closer to normal and even above normal values by the middle of next week.

Most of the state has reported no rainfall so far this month. Some northern areas have received between 0.10 inches and 0.30 inches from brief showers. Forecasts suggested that there will be little rainfall until at least the second half of the month, so that some remaining areas of Moderate Drought in the state may expand over the coming couple of weeks.

Crop planting progress this month has been very good, with over half of the corn planted and over a third of the soybean crop planted. First cutting of alfalfa hay may be delayed until later in the month with these cooler temperatures.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The Weather Underground web site this week features an update on ENSO forecasts for the coming summer. It appears more and more likely that an ENSO episode will be in play by late summer, and further, there is a 50-50 chance that a “Super ENSO episode” may develop with ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean warming more than 2.0°C. Such a development may rival of the Super ENSO episodes of 1998 and 2016. These episodes can have significant impacts on Minnesota weather conditions for the coming November 2026 through March of 2027 period.

A recent research study published in Nature Communications documents enormous increases in summer surface melting of portions of the Greenland ice sheet. Extreme episodes of warm summer temperatures and rapid ice melting during the summer have become more frequent in occurrence. Seven of the ten most extreme events have occurred since 2000. Future projects based on continuing increases in greenhouse gases suggest that extreme meltwater discharge from the ice sheet could increase by over 300 percent by the year 2100.

MPR listener question:

In how many years has the temperature reached 100°F during the month of May in Minnesota?

Answer:

In Minnesota climate history there have been just 11 months of May when the daily maximum temperature reached 100°F or higher. In chronological order those years were: 1914, 1925, 1934, 1939, 1959, 1964,1967, 1998, 2011, 2013 and most recently 2018. In May of 1934, there were 10 days when the temperature reached 100°F or higher, including May 31st when it reached 112°F at Maple Plain, the all-time high temperature for the month of May.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 8th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 66 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is 47 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 8th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 90 degrees F in 1874; lowest daily maximum temperature of 41 degrees F in 1924; lowest daily minimum temperature of 28 degrees F in 1960; highest daily minimum temperature of 67 degrees F in 1896, and record precipitation of 1.73 inches in 1872. Record snowfall for this date is 0.5 inches in 1923.

Average dew point for May 8th is 39°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 67°F in 1965 and the minimum dew point on this date is 6 degrees F in 1947.

All-time statewide records for May 8tht:

The state record high temperature for this date is.102 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1934. The state record low temperature for this date is 10 degrees F at Pine River (Crow Wing County) in 1907. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 4.85 inches at Santiago (Sherburne County) in 2014. A record 12.0 inches of snow fell at Windom (Cottonwood County) on this date in 1938.

Past Weather:

Very cold temperatures dominated the state on the morning of May 8 in 1907. Temperatures were in the 20s F even along the Iowa border. Five northern counties reported temperatures in the teens. The daily high temperature at Montevideo only reached 35°F with snow flurries.

Over 25 Minnesota climate stations reported record high daily maximum temperatures on May 8 of 1934. Most of these record high temperatures were in the 90s F. In four western counties the afternoon high temperature reached 100°F or greater. It was the first of 10 days that reached 100°F or higher during May of 1934.

One of the largest May snowfalls of the 1930s in Minnesota occurred on May 8 of 1938, Many communities across southern and western Minnesota reported 3 to 6 inches of snowfall, with high winds and cold temperatures. Windom reported a record snowfall of 12 inches falling on recently planted small grain crops.

Outlook:

Cooler than normal temperatures over the weekend and into Monday, with chances for morning frosts in many areas of rural Minnesota. There will be Increasing clouds on Monday with a chance for showers later in the day. Showers on Tuesday with warmer temperatures, then warming temperatures will continue for the remainder of next week. There will be increasing chances for showers later on Wednesday and into Thursday.