Mid-month climate check-up

Mid-month climate check-up:

Through the first two weeks of August temperatures have generally been warmer than normal in much of southern Minnesota and cooler than normal in many northern locations where several observers have reported morning low temperatures in the 30s F. On Thursday (August 13) of this week the morning low temperature was just 35°F at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center in Lake County.

Rainfall through the first two weeks of August has remained mostly sparse and spotty. Only areas of south-central and southeastern Minnesota have seen above normal rainfall so far. Much of the state has recorded less than an inch of rainfall so far. According to this week’s U.S. Drought Monitor update, 30 percent of the Minnesota landscape is in Moderate Drought and 45 percent is in Severe Drought. According to the weekly DNR-Stream Flow Reports, many streams in north-central and northeastern Minnesota are funning very low, below the 10th percentile in volume flow for this time of year.

USDA crop condition reports this week so that the corn crop is moving into the dent stage in its development and soybeans are in the setting and filling pod stage. 71 percent of the state corn crop is said to be in good to excellent condition, while 72 percent of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent.

The climate pattern for the week ahead tends to favor near normal temperature conditions, as well as slightly wetter than normal. So hopefully the state will see some beneficial rains by the middle of next week.

Weekly Weather Potpourri:

The BBC reported on yet another summer Heat Wave in the United Kingdom this week. Many areas reported afternoon temperatures in the 90s F, and Kew Gardens reported 100°F on August 13. In fact, August 13th was the 38 day this summer where temperatures somewhere in the UK have exceeded 86°F breaking the previous record of 34 days. Heat Waves have been a frequent visitor this summer to many parts of Western Europe.

Speaking of Heat Waves, according to Al Jazeera across Western Europe, over 135 million people have experienced some form of Heat Wave this summer. Especially hit hard were the UK, Spain, France, and Italy. Some areas experienced up to 5 different Heat Waves this summer. Many temperature records have been set for both hot days and warm nights.

MPR listener question:

It seems like August has been exceptionally warm in recent years, bringing us some exceptionally high Heat Index Values. Is this a trend?

Answer:

Yes, an argument can be made for a warming trend in August, as the last cooler than normal month of August was back in 2019, and only 4 of the most recent 20 months of August have been cooler than normal on a statewide basis. Putting an exclamation point on this trend is the fact that the National Weather Service has had to issue Heat Advisories or Extreme Heat Warnings during three of the four most recent months of August. High dew point conditions inflated Heat Index Values well about the 105°F mark for brief periods in August of 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Twin Cities Almanac for August 14th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 81 degrees F (plus or minus 7 degrees F standard deviation), while the average low is.63 degrees F (plus or minus 6 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for August14th:

MSP records for this date: highest daily maximum temperature of 96 degrees F in 1978; lowest daily maximum temperature of 65 degrees F in 1887; lowest daily minimum temperature of 43 degrees F in 1964; highest daily minimum temperature of 72 degrees F in 1978, and record precipitation of 1.00 inches in 1981. No snowfall has occurred on this date.

Average dew point for August 14th is 59°F; the maximum dew point on this date is 76°F in 1978 and the minimum dew point on this date is 32 degrees F in 1933.

All-time statewide records for August 14th:

The state record high temperature for this date is.105 degrees F at Campbell (Wilkin County) in 1938 and at Hawley (Clay County) in 1984. The state record low temperature for this date is 25 degrees F at Tower (St Louis County) in 1977. The statewide record for precipitation on this date is 6.75 inches at Annandale 1.9W (Wright County) in 2023. No snow has fallen on this date.

Past Weather:

August 14 of 1964 brought a very cold morning, especially to northern counties of Minnesota. At least a dozen climate stations reported morning frosts, with some morning lows in the upper 20s F. It was just 27°F at both Big Fork and Cotton. Cloud cover suppressed the daytime high temperatures too, as Grand Meadow in southeastern Minnesota only made it up to 62°F.

Over 30 Minnesota communities reported new record high maximum temperatures on August 14 of 1965. Though most recorded temperatures in the 90s F, some western areas of the state saw 100°F. It was a warm muggy night too with many climate stations reporting overnight low temperatures in the mid 70s F.

Over two dozen southern Minnesota climate stations reported daily record rainfall amounts from heavy thunderstorms on August 14 of 1981. Many observers reported 2-3 inches of rainfall and Gaylord reported over 5 inches which flooded many corn fields in the area.

Outlook:

Chance for showers on Saturday with near normal temperatures. Cooler and drier on Sunday. Temperatures will moderate near normal much of next week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially late Monday through Wednesday.